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Windows XP Market Share

G4scott

G4scott

macrumors 68020
Original poster
Jan 9, 2002
2,225
5
USA_WA
I am looking for figures on how many computers out there actually run Windows XP, compared to the total number of personal computers out there. I found figures at around 20%, but that's on the web, and doesn't accurately measure windows market share.

With this information, I can maybe help shed some light on Apple's plans for the future.

A hint: 2005 is going to make it or break it for Apple...
 
any ideas anyone? My brother said that XP has about 12%, but I'm not entirely sure... Feel free to post what you think.
 
-All

Just remember a few things before you delve too deep into this kind of discussion:

1) The market is defined as those poseesing the ability and the desire to buy. Once the need to buy is satisfied, they are no longer a part of the market.

2) The market is expanding every year.

This is why Apple can have a shrinking market share yet increase revenue.

3) The computer industry is becoming a commodity market as the ratio of those buying new machines vs. replacing old ones is shrinking.


This all being said, a more useful measure would probably be Installed Base. That I'd truly be interested is seeing.
 
Originally posted by kewpid
i dont know how accurate this might be

http://www.google.com/press/zeitgeist.html
Click to expand...

That's useful.

Now, here's my reasoning.

When Windows Longhorn comes out in 2005, I have heard that there will be a major push by Microsoft to get people to get rid of their windows 95, and 98 machines. Microsoft might also try to get rid of win2k. The point is, that's roughly half of the computers on this planet. If what I heard was correct, Microsoft will cut all support for these legacy operating systems (at last!) and try to convince them to switch to Longhorn...

Here's where Apple comes in. Microsoft will be trying to get businesses and homes to switch to a new platform that has yet to prove itself, and buy new hardware. Imagine if Apple could 1) Sell Mac OS X for x86 PC's, or 2) Use profits from things like the iTunes Music Store, and cut down the prices on hardware, and make them competitive with the prices of PC's.

Then Apple would have to advertise like heck, and let the world know that the Mac OS is out there, and it is better than Windows.

They could also partner with IBM to make some serious kick-ass servers (64 way enterprise server anybody?), and help take on the enterprise market.

If Apple has enough to convince major corporations upgrading from windoze 95 or 98 to Mac OS X, they could really steal some thunder from Microsoft.

I just hope Apple will be ready by 2005...
 
Originally posted by kewpid
i dont know how accurate this might be

http://www.google.com/press/zeitgeist.html
Click to expand...

that is a pretty good indication of usage considering that most every user with the internet knows about google. Now half the PC figures and you will have an accurate measurement. Why? Cause mac users dont need to do a million searches for illegal serials. Most of us get our software legally.

For the less mathematically inclined, take 3/4 of the pc percentage and 5/4 of the non pc usage and then thos results are equal to about 35% for the worlds computers.
 
Originally posted by G4scott
That's useful.

Now, here's my reasoning.

When Windows Longhorn comes out in 2005, I have heard that there will be a major push by Microsoft to get people to get rid of their windows 95, and 98 machines. Microsoft might also try to get rid of win2k. The point is, that's roughly half of the computers on this planet. If what I heard was correct, Microsoft will cut all support for these legacy operating systems (at last!) and try to convince them to switch to Longhorn...
Click to expand...

Augh if I cannot find drivers for win98 once i have to reinstall (about once every 3 months) because of longhorn I am going to be pretty upset. Although one could make the argument that Apple is doing likewise by eliminating OS 9 booting.

Here's where Apple comes in. Microsoft will be trying to get businesses and homes to switch to a new platform that has yet to prove itself, and buy new hardware. Imagine if Apple could 1) Sell Mac OS X for x86 PC's, or 2) Use profits from things like the iTunes Music Store, and cut down the prices on hardware, and make them competitive with the prices of PC's.

Then Apple would have to advertise like heck, and let the world know that the Mac OS is out there, and it is better than Windows.

They could also partner with IBM to make some serious kick-ass servers (64 way enterprise server anybody?), and help take on the enterprise market.

If Apple has enough to convince major corporations upgrading from windoze 95 or 98 to Mac OS X, they could really steal some thunder from Microsoft.

I just hope Apple will be ready by 2005...
Click to expand...

The only problem with your entire theory, is that Apple suffers from poor misconceptions of the product. Apple needs to start at ground zero and let people know that yeah, they can read files from a pc, and yes, they too can use a standard ethernet wire.

It all starts at home.
 
G4scott, I really think you're onto something here - and I think/hope Apple realizes the opportunity this will give them.

Most windows users (apart from hardcore gamers) are windows users for two simple reasons:
1. They do not know that alternatives exist or don't want to make the effort to check them out.
2. Everybody knows someone from whom to 'borrow' the latest/most expensive windows software.

Now, if Longhorn is not backwards compatible and Microsoft will indeed stop supporting the older OSs to push conversion to Longhorn, what are the consequences for all those windows users?
1. They will suddenly absolutely HAVE TO make an effort to get used to a brandnew OS, either Longhorn - or Linux (not nearly user-friendly enough for the mass market) or, indeed, Mac OSX. There would be no EXTRA effort anymore to check out the Mac side of things.
2. All of a sudden, the abundance of windows software to be 'borrowed' will not be there anymore/useless in Longhorn. "Wait a minute, you mean I have to pay real money for my new software, I should check out the competition then to make sure I get the most for my hard-earned cash. Hmm, that OSX looks rather nice..."

PLUS by then Apple may – and we can only pray for that – have strengthened their partnership with IBM and thus have obtained some of IBMs cred in corporate environments. Make no mistake, a lot of companys are totally pissed off by Microsoft's way of making business with them, and they only stay with them because the amount of money they already invested in PC hard- and software doesn't allow them to look into alternatives. Well, if Microsoft comes along and tells them to throw away their hard- and software because Longhorn needs faster hardware and/or is not compatible with the software they purchased, they will show Microsoft where to stick Longhorn and either stay on older windows platforms as long as possible – or start looking around... "Oh I see, IBM uses Mac OSX on their server hardware now, must be good then..." (There have been rumors about exactly this).

I won't go over the top right now, but it seems very obvious that the moment in time that Microsoft will try to implement a new, modern OS (latest news: Longhorn to use a quasi Quartz Extreme technology, doh) and get rid of all the baggage their old OSs carry with them, will be the very moment in time when Apple, IBM, the Linux crowd and everyone else will get their shot to overcome the Wintel monopoly in the computer world. We can only hope that they will rise to the occasion.
 
"Now, if Longhorn is not backwards compatible and Microsoft will indeed stop supporting the older OSs to push conversion to Longhorn, what are the consequences for all those windows users?"

Erm, where did you get the idea that Longhorn isn't backwards compatible? As for support, MS has a fairly predictible schedule for when the cease to support an OS. Win 95 is pretty much dropped for instance.

Regards / GulGnu

-Stabil som fan!
 
The Ars Technica article (found here ), is another indication that Apple may be planning to do make it's move.

If what they said about focusing more on the 970 motherboard, keeping the current G4's behind par, then they must have some kick ass ***** behind closed doors.

Once the 970 is released, and if IBM can keep it up for a couple of years, Apple should have no problem competing in the power side of things. This is where 10.3 comes in. It has a slew of new features to draw windoze customers over. It offers things that were previously windows only.

Apple does need to show that the Mac is a great machine from the ground up, and make sure people know this.

They would need some aggressive advertising...

As for longhorn not being backwards compatible, any pre-XP machines would obviously be unsupported. Current PC's would lag just a bit, and newer PC's would be required to take advantage of everything Longhorn has to offer. Remember, it's slated for release in 2005. That leaves over a year for them to make today's technology obsolete...
 
take warezs too..

I do use WinXP myself.. but i don't know the percentage of the marketshare..
XP is much better then M.E. or 98.. It just requires more system resource, but the functioning, the interface and etc is much better...

what i'll say is, take warez XP cds into consideration too... I dont know about the usage of warez in United States, but in many countries, the warez copies of XP has arrived before original one came, like Turkey, Russia, Bulgaria, Greece and etc..
 
Originally posted by G4scott

As for longhorn not being backwards compatible, any pre-XP machines would obviously be unsupported. Current PC's would lag just a bit, and newer PC's would be required to take advantage of everything Longhorn has to offer. Remember, it's slated for release in 2005. That leaves over a year for them to make today's technology obsolete...
Click to expand...

I am very sceptical of this - there is no XP-only software being released today, and I doubt that will change very much in a year. Remember that there is no major OS shift to be performed here - heck, XP can run most (really old) DOS software with few probs - that Win 9X software should be incompatible with Longhorn is near inconcievable. Sure, Longhorn will require an up-to-date computer, but that's hardly news in the world of OS:es.

The potential screw-up regarding Longhorn that Linux (If they clean up their workstation environment a bit. Mandrake / Red Hat + KDE / GNOME is no Mac OS X w/ Aqua, so to speak...) and Mac OS X can take advantage of, in my view, is MS going overboard with all that DRM goodness. Let's keep our fingers crossed =P

Regards / GulGnu

-Stabil som fan!
 
Just to throw in my .02 cents here. I think Microsoft will slowly begin to loose market share just because of what they are trying to do in the market. Microsoft is continually making it more and more expensive for businesses and home users to keep there computers up to date, and I believe we are seeing more and more people turning to the Linux/Mac world because of it. I work for a major computer parts disiti doing inside sales and I hear complaints from my resellers everyday about M$ being to expensive and them trying to convince there clients to try Linux on there servers and workstations. Apple really need to step it up and let people know how easy they really are. I myself am a recent switcher and before the switch i tried redhat 8, and even being as computer savvy as I am wasn't able to pick it up as quickly as I wanted (steep learning curve), thats where apple came in. Simple, easy to use, well suported, ect..

I hope that made sense:rolleyes:
 
Hehe, not to be an over-pessimist or something, but is really keeping windows up to date that more expensive than keeping OS X up to date? After all, coughing up cash for each 10.X isn't free, and is pretty much an annual event. You are right about Linux being a viable budget alternative though, if open-source can shed it's user-frienliness problems.

Regards / GulGnu
 
Technically speaking both Win98 and Win95 are no longer supported already - theres a big difference between 'not supported' and 'won't work on'
 
Originally posted by destroyboredom
I work for a major computer parts disiti doing inside sales and I hear complaints from my resellers everyday about M$ being to expensive and them trying to convince there clients to try Linux on there servers and workstations. I hope that made sense:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Perfect sense.

I think we'll see more of this. Most big (even small) firms have an IT director or such who is 40-50 years old, who got into the position they're in by some kind of 'default' (appologies to those out there who actually do have some tech nouse). Many of them, and also some of the youger generations, are completely sold on the MS propoganda (that was originally started by IBM, mind you!).

I think most younger techy people can call MS's bluff. Slashdot is a great example of this - a huge powerful tech community that is for the most part Mac sympathetic.

If Apple can win back the home market by way of nifty lifestyle & media componets and packages, Microsoft will be caught between a rock (open sourced enterprise level OS's - including OSX) and a hard place (home/life style media hardware - where Apple knows it can rock but let languish between the original iMac and the iPod).

The biggest worry is that there are so many battles on so many fronts that I don't know if Apple's marketing heads are up to the task. They need to employ a group of bright young creative types, give them a bit of money and then let them rip. Apple has the image, but not the message.

a.
 
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