Your guess: Next 16" MBP will be intel or ARM

[nquinn]

Apple has stated ARM chips in their products as soon as end of 2020, with a phase-out of intel over 2 years.

Do you think the next 16" MacBook model (late 2020/early 2021) will be intel or ARM?

Maybe intel because:
- 16" is more professional level than other models and needs lots of cores. 12-core ARM chip might not be ready
- 16" might require more x86 extensions needed for special software
- Thunderbolt support on new models? Does ARM support this?

I could see this going either way this year.

 

[LeeW]

ARM is coming, speculate less, use what you have more. When they arrive we will know.

 

[poematik13]

ARM will be for casual macs first and pro macs will be the last to get it. The 16" will be intel for at least a couple years.

 

[nquinn]

ARM will be for casual macs first and pro macs will be the last to get it. The 16" will be intel for at least a couple years.

This is what I'm curious on. I actually think it is possible Apple makes the switch to the 16" soon, especially since intel doesn't have a timeline on a 45w H chip yet. (Tiger Lake targeted for this year so far is only the 28w version)

 

[leman]

ARM will be for casual macs first and pro macs will be the last to get it. The 16" will be intel for at least a couple years.

Agreed. Apple will probably need to add some tweaks (like SVE) to here CPUs, and there is of course also the GPU issue... they probably would want to scale their TBDR architecture to true desktop-class, but that might take a while.

But for a 13" MBP, immediate move to ARM makes more sense. Apple's SOC are already more performant than either Intel or AMD can offer in that bracket.

 

[jerryk]

This is what I'm curious on. I actually think it is possible Apple makes the switch to the 16" soon, especially since intel doesn't have a timeline on a 45w H chip yet. (Tiger Lake targeted for this year so far is only the 28w version)

The switch to a Apple Silicon will likely mean a complete redesign. Maybe thinner, definitely new cooling system, potentially Apple GPU, battery changes, etc. So physical changes not just a processor swap. The high end model is where they traditionally have made the most tinkering, so a 16" upgrade could be made. But, I think a lower end model is more likely to be the first MacBook running Apple Silicon since there is less risk and more potential upside.

But the transition will be rapid, so I doubt there will be a new 16" MBP with an Intel processor.

 

[Falhófnir]

There was that Jon Prosser talk of the next 16" being Arm, and also the leaked Mac Arm CPU (8 high power plus 4 efficient cores) which definitely sounds like it could be destined for the 16". I wouldn't be surprised either way really.

 

[LeeW]

But, I think a lower end model is more likely to be the first MacBook running Apple Silicon since there is less risk and more potential upside.

This, people, won't first commit to a 16" ARM MBP at $2,500. They will, however, jump into a $999 MBA or possibly up to $1,500 on an ARM MBP 13" for the first round.

 

[Ma2k5]

I think it’ll be Arm just due to there not being any really good chips on Intel’s roadmap worth adding to the 16” in the next 12 months.

 

[jerryk]

This, people, won't fully commit first to a 16" ARM MBP at $2,500. They will, however, jump into a $999 MBA or possibly up to $1,500 on an ARM MBP 13" for the first round.

Agree. And after they see the performance, ability to run their favorite iPad apps, etc. they will be complaining that Apple screwed up and should have come out with a top-end model. And they just want Apple to take their money for this powerhouse 15/16" system!

And as a long term Apple share holder, this will be a good problem for Apple to have!

I will consider dumping my 2020 13" MBP for this new small ARM MacBook as a dev machine.

 

[DHagan4755]

With current rumors that the redesigned iMac & the 13-inch MacBook Pro will be first to "Apple Silicon," I wonder what people's reactions will be if the forthcoming ARM 13-inch MacBook Pro vastly outperforms the current high end 16-inch MacBook Pro? Just imagine... If Apple wants to really hype people up for the new SoC, that surely would be the way to do it!

 

[jerryk]

With current rumors that the redesigned iMac & the 13-inch MacBook Pro will be first to "Apple Silicon," I wonder what people's reactions will be if the forthcoming ARM 13-inch MacBook Pro vastly outperforms the current high end 16-inch MacBook Pro? Just imagine... If Apple wants to really hype people up for the new SoC, that surely would be the way to do it!

It would be even better if the machine was a fanless MacBook that performed close to, but does not exceed, current 16" MPBs. That would drive demand for both 13 and 16 Apple Silicon MBPs.

 

[LFC2020]

Come on apple release a 16" ARM MacBook Pro in the next 3 month, so I can finally upgrade from my 2016 13" pro. 🙏

 

[duffyanneal]

I remember when the move to Intel was announced. The same type of discussions were happening back then. Many people were guessing that the first machine with Intel would be a cheap, non-pro machine. My guess was the portable machines would be the first recipients as they had been floundering for the longest time on the G4 processors while the desktops had long since moved on to the G5 processors. Apple eventually announced the first Intel machines would be the MacBook Pros.

My guess this time around is that the Macbook Air will be the first machine with Apple CPUs. The current design with the detached heatsink / fan which seems a bit undersized for the current Intel CPU seems a perfect candidate for the lower powered ARM CPU. Mac Mini's may be announced at the same time or shortly after. We already know that design is already in place. iMacs will be released sometime between the MBA/Mac Mini and the Mac Pros. With the recent release of the updated 13" MBP and GPU upgraded 16" MBP I don't anticipate any significant updates to those machines until early next year. That is when those machines will make the switch to Apple CPUs. I think the last product to get the update will be the Mac Pros. The update cycle for that product line are measured in years as opposed to months and that will allow professional users to stretch out their purchases until well after the two year process Apple mentioned for the complete switch over to Apple CPUs.

 

[nick9191]

I don't believe the transition will really take 2 years, at least in terms of the hardware switch. Apple said this last time, that the transition to Intel would be complete by the end of 2007 (2.5 years from announcement) when in reality the product transition took a year.

In theory they should be able to pull it off even faster now since they control the CPU's (global pandemics aside). My money is on nearly all products being Apple silicon by March next year with the venerable Mac Pro following at WWDC 2021, like last time.

I believe one more Intel product will follow in the coming weeks/months, the iMac, since it's so overdue for an update. Then after that all new releases will be on Apple silicon starting with the entire notebook lineup in November ready for a Christmas release.

Apple won't let this thing linger, if you want an Intel Mac I'd buy one soon.

 

[nizuzen]

First arm Macbook will be MacBook Pro 13 then MacBook Air then MacBook Pro 16

 

[PharmlyDoc]

Can someone please explain what the importance is of a 48w chip vs 28w?
ACER is releasing an Intel Tiger Lake 10nm CPU powered notebook in October 2020, from a Core i3-1135G7 variant to a Core i7-1185.
I'm no expert, but is it plausible that in the coming months, Intel will release a customized Tiger Lake i9 chip for MBP 16? And new Tiger Lake processors will have better artificial intelligence/ML capabilities?

 

[jerryk]

Can someone please explain what the importance is of a 48w chip vs 28w?
ACER is releasing an Intel Tiger Lake 10nm CPU powered notebook in October 2020, from a Core i3-1135G7 variant to a Core i7-1185.
I'm no expert, but is it plausible that in the coming months, Intel will release a customized Tiger Lake i9 chip for MBP 16? And new Tiger Lake processors will have better artificial intelligence/ML capabilities?

I doubt any general purpose Intel CPU will do much better for AI/ML. The big thing you need when with a NN is parallel operations. That is why GPUs and even more so specialized hardware like TPUs do so much better than CPUs. And unfortunately for Mac Intel users that means Nvidia GPUs with their thousands of CUDA cores and importantly the cuDNN libraries.

On the Apple Silicon side, Apple already has some good GPUs and has been hiring good hardware/software ML types for their next generation of NN accelerators.

 

[Ma2k5]

Can someone please explain what the importance is of a 48w chip vs 28w?
ACER is releasing an Intel Tiger Lake 10nm CPU powered notebook in October 2020, from a Core i3-1135G7 variant to a Core i7-1185.
I'm no expert, but is it plausible that in the coming months, Intel will release a customized Tiger Lake i9 chip for MBP 16? And new Tiger Lake processors will have better artificial intelligence/ML capabilities?

Where Intel are more useful for is certain applications which benefit from instruction sets only available on x86. For ML/AI, GPU is king.

 

[poematik13]

There was that Jon Prosser talk of the next 16" being Arm, and also the leaked Mac Arm CPU (8 high power plus 4 efficient cores) which definitely sounds like it could be destined for the 16". I wouldn't be surprised either way really.

They're going to totally **** over all the professionals that use apps (like Avid) which are JUST switching over to 64bit let alone ditching x86_64 entirely for ARM.

ARM is gonna be for casual non-pro macs (macbook, air, base mac mini and base imac) for at least 12-18 months. Raw power and maximum compatibility still needs Intel, for better or for worse.

I know people who aren't even going past 10.14.6 just because they have so many little parts of their workflow that are 32bit dependent.

This whole transition is basically the final nail in the coffin for pro mac use. Developers for expensive programs and niche ecosystems aren't gonna bother moving their entire codebase to ARM, they'll just deprecate it and tell you to move to Windows.

 

[DHagan4755]

This whole transition is basically the final nail in the coffin for pro mac use.

I doubt it. The tantalizing hardware possibilities with Apple silicon has brought about renewed interest in the Mac platform. It would behoove all developers to upgrade their apps, especially when the major players have already embarked on this process & will probably have most of their suites ready on day #1. As far as further tantalizing possibilities goes, it got me thinking about how we could have a Mac with Pro Motion sooner than we thought. The iPad Pro 12.9 resolution is a little less than the 16-inch so it seems within reach & it could definitely be possible on the 13-inch. Combine this with Mini LEDs & this alone would be a very attractive & compelling offering.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Apple has stated ARM chips in their products as soon as end of 2020, with a phase-out of intel over 2 years.

Do you think the next 16" MacBook model (late 2020/early 2021) will be intel or ARM?

Maybe intel because:
- 16" is more professional level than other models and needs lots of cores. 12-core ARM chip might not be ready
- 16" might require more x86 extensions needed for special software
- Thunderbolt support on new models? Does ARM support this?

I could see this going either way this year.

I'm thinking Intel. In 2018, The A12X was able to best anything that wasn't a 2018 15" MacBook Pro with a Core i9 or beefier Mac. A12Z is very similar to A12X. That's not to say that Apple likely hasn't come up with faster chips, but one would assume that if there was something dramatically faster, they'd have put that in the 2020 iPad Pros. I don't doubt that an A14 based chip is coming for the Mac, but for it to best the current 2019 16" MacBook Pro's chips will be a feat. That said, give it another year and they'll surely be there. Whereas, the A12X and A12Z should both have plenty of power to surpass the power of any CPU that has ever graced a MacBook Air or 13" MacBook Pro TODAY. I believe this is why the 13" MacBook Pro will be among the first (if not THE first) Macs to make the switch.

This is what I'm curious on. I actually think it is possible Apple makes the switch to the 16" soon, especially since intel doesn't have a timeline on a 45w H chip yet. (Tiger Lake targeted for this year so far is only the 28w version)

You're telling me that Intel doesn't have any 10th Gen H-series part that would be an upgrade over the 9th Gen H-series that is in the current 16" MacBook Pro set to come out this year? I find that a little hard to believe.

What about this guy: https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/processors/core/i9-processors/i9-10980hk.html

Sounds like that dude is ready to jump right into a 16" MacBook Pro

I think it’ll be Arm just due to there not being any really good chips on Intel’s roadmap worth adding to the 16” in the next 12 months.

Again, what about this guy: https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/processors/core/i9-processors/i9-10980hk.html

Not saying it's revolutionarily faster than the 9th Gen that's in it today, but it's a bump that's there that can be employed today! Would certainly be a nicer note to end the reign of Intel based 15" and 16" MacBook Pros on.

With current rumors that the redesigned iMac & the 13-inch MacBook Pro will be first to "Apple Silicon," I wonder what people's reactions will be if the forthcoming ARM 13-inch MacBook Pro vastly outperforms the current high end 16-inch MacBook Pro? Just imagine... If Apple wants to really hype people up for the new SoC, that surely would be the way to do it!

That would certainly be the smart way for them to do it. And it wouldn't be dissimilar to how they did the switch TO Intel; they announced the Core Duo iMacs saying that they were faster than the G5s and that they were the fastest Macs ever, such that when the Mac Pros came out six months later, it was as though the gloves were really coming off.

Looking back on the history of 13" Intel-based Mac laptops, we really got cheated in terms of graphics. That brief break where we had NVIDIA shared-memory integrated graphics processors was okay, but the Intel graphics have always sucked and been way subpar compared to any Mac with a discrete GPU. At least in the days of the 12" PowerBook G4, we still had SOME discrete graphics in tow.

If the 13" MacBook Pro on ARM's graphics are what Apple implies they might be, then I'll be glad to see good graphics return to that form factor. I'm ambivalent on the move from Intel, but certainly not at all on the move away from Intel integrated graphics.

Come on apple release a 16" ARM MacBook Pro in the next 3 month, so I can finally upgrade from my 2016 13" pro. 🙏

Likely not going to happen that soon, buddy. The 13" ARM MacBook Pro is certainly possible though.

First arm Macbook will be MacBook Pro 13 then MacBook Air then MacBook Pro 16

That order makes sense.

I'm still not totally convinced that they won't merge the Air and the 13" Pro into a single powerful 13" Mac laptop on ARM. The only reason why there even is an Air is that there's only so much that you can shrink the thermal envelope of an Intel U-series processor before it starts to melt. If you have power that exceeds that of ANY Intel U-series processor that will work inside an enclosure designed for an Intel Y-series processor (such as the chassis of the 2020 Air), then the only thing you need to do to complete the merge of those two laptops is to add a Touch Bar (which may or may not even be a desired element at that point) and two additional USB-C/Thunderbolt3 ports.

Why have multiple 13" Mac laptops when you can have one that is literally the best of both worlds?

But yeah, 16" MacBook Pro is definitely last on that list, regardless.

 

[johngwheeler]

The switch to a Apple Silicon will likely mean a complete redesign. Maybe thinner, definitely new cooling system, potentially Apple GPU, battery changes, etc. So physical changes not just a processor swap. The high end model is where they traditionally have made the most tinkering, so a 16" upgrade could be made. But, I think a lower end model is more likely to be the first MacBook running Apple Silicon since there is less risk and more potential upside.

But the transition will be rapid, so I doubt there will be a new 16" MBP with an Intel processor.

Probably just incremental GPU & CPU improvements as these become available, e.g. the recent 5500M to 5600M GPU upgrade.

It will be interesting to see how Apple produces an equivalent to the current discrete AMD GPUs. Will they build a brand new GPU, or integrate their ARM SoC with an existing AMD GPU?

 

[c8y]

I guess the next 16" MBP will be on Intel's 10th gen, which is not much upgrade from the current 9th gen. And I think that will be it. The reason I think this, it doesn't make sense from the marketing point of view to reduce the gap between Intel MBP and the first ARM MPB. Releasing 16" MBP with 11th gen or newer would decrease the difference in benchmarks...

 

[johngwheeler]

They're going to totally **** over all the professionals that use apps (like Avid) which are JUST switching over to 64bit let alone ditching x86_64 entirely for ARM.

ARM is gonna be for casual non-pro macs (macbook, air, base mac mini and base imac) for at least 12-18 months. Raw power and maximum compatibility still needs Intel, for better or for worse.

I know people who aren't even going past 10.14.6 just because they have so many little parts of their workflow that are 32bit dependent.

This whole transition is basically the final nail in the coffin for pro mac use. Developers for expensive programs and niche ecosystems aren't gonna bother moving their entire codebase to ARM, they'll just deprecate it and tell you to move to Windows.

This all depends on how easy it will be to move these apps to run on ARM. If they use lots of Intel specific features, then it will be big job - that software vendor may decide is not worth their while.

I agree that power users will be on Intel for 2-4 years, and will then need to see whether both software vendors and Apple are offering ARM alternatives.
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I guess the next 16" MBP will be on Intel's 10th gen, which is not much upgrade from the current 9th gen. And I think that will be it. The reason I think this, it doesn't make sense from the marketing point of view to reduce the gap between Intel MBP and the first ARM MPB. Releasing 16" MBP with 11th gen or newer would decrease the difference in benchmarks...

Agreed. Apple will tread the line between not being seen to do enough to provide CPU/GPU upgrades when they become available, but not making the Intel Macs look too good. Depending on how long the MBP16 transition takes, we will see one or maybe two minor CPU upgrades, and maybe one more GPU upgrade.