Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

JohnGrey

macrumors 6502
Apr 21, 2012
298
557
Cincinnati Metro
Well, I am disappointed in the slow roll-out of new Macs too, but in all fairness, this decline is probably driven by lower iPhone sales. A huge proportion of Apple's revenue comes from the iPhone. Last year, there was pent-up demand for a larger iPhone, which was satisfied by the 6/6+ release. No way the 6s/6s+ was going to duplicate that year's sales.

That goes to the heart of the issue here. Under Cook's tenure, and spurred on by a board that, like most, only cares about operating margin and profit for the next quarter and not the next twenty, Apple has transitioned from a dedicated niche provider of great products that had a successful mass market device to a mass market merchandiser using its old 'rebel dreamer' cachet and admittedly second-to-none marketing machine to charge absurd margins for them. That's sustainable only so long as you don't have a mature market, where the product category has been whittled down and rigidly defined over a succession of generations, being wildly innovative at first before that decays to conservative spec increases. Personal computers have been there for a long while, and Apple tried to to what Apple does when their margins are suppressed by competitors who see their success and copy them with 70% of experience for 50% of the cost: find a new product category. Their embrace of the 'post-PC' rubbish, and it is utter rubbish, was not because it believed dedicated personal computing was dead but because they could no longer compete in that space whilst maintaining both their margins and their profits. That's Apple eternal failing: they fight against innovation, because innovation is inherently deflationary. The same technology over time will always cost less unless there is either a monopoly or criminal collusion.

If they ever want to earn back their acclaim and their dedicated audience, they need to relegate iPhone back to what it should be, an extension of their platform and not the cornerstone. They need to stop truncating macOS to duplicate the look, feel and feature set of iOS. If they want professionals, ones who have the passion for great products and the discretionary income to match, they need to remember what built the house, not what put the granite counters in the kitchen.
 

2IS

macrumors 68030
Jan 9, 2011
2,938
433
When was the last time Apple had nearly their entire Mac line on the verge of an overhaul, along with the iPhone reaching maturity in it's current form?

When the new iPhone explodes sales records next year, the watch selling more than it ever has next year, and the Mac line being fully up to date likely driving higher sales, will we be doomed?

Product cycles don't coincide neatly with fiscal year reporting, I couldn't care less what sensationalism is likely to come of this from Wall Street reporters. From a product offering perspective Apple is in the strongest position it's been in in years for 2017. Hell, just the AirPods on their own are slated to generate billions.

When was the last time Apple had a product line as old as it is? When was the last time Apple didn't have revenue growth? Seems to me the fact that they finally are updating their product line that they saw the writing on the wall already and is indeed a wake up call.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ssgbryan

NT1440

macrumors G5
May 18, 2008
14,670
21,082
When was the last time Apple had a product line as old as it is? When was the last time Apple didn't have revenue growth? Seems to me the fact that they finally are updating their product line that they saw the writing on the wall already and is indeed a wake up call.
So you're telling me....that somehow....a revenue dip for this made them suddenly do months of development, then months of supply chain management, and months of manufacturing tooling as if these weren't already in the works?


Do you understand the timeframes involved in bringing a device from design to final manufacturing make your notion absurd? Macs being introduced this month have been in development well over a year, there's no way around that.
 

NT1440

macrumors G5
May 18, 2008
14,670
21,082
That "may" be, BUT it needs to happen at regular intervals, to stay on TOP of Technology!
I don't disagree that they should do spec bumps a little more regularly. That said, the different between processors has been smaller and smaller. Their updating of things like SSD speeds have been more of an upgrade an end user would notice over a ~15% processor bump and for things like that there really isn't an industry cycle period.
 

Freida

Suspended
Oct 22, 2010
4,077
5,868
Even if the MacBooks refresh and they're great, I still don't trust them.
I went balls deep into the 2012 Retina MacBook Pro and look where that got me. Invested into a system that got a marginal VRAM bump the next year, thankfully a CPU refresh. Then 2014 came around... Then 2015 came around...
What was my reward for investing into their eco system? Tim Cook telling me I can get my work done with a damn iPad.
No Tim. No I can't.
My job is literally to build applications for the iPad, and now I can't do it as well because I'm on inferior technology.
What's next? We invest heavily into this generation of MacBook Pro's, maybe get one very mild subtle GPU upgrade next year and be stuck on Skylake CPU's for four years?
We should not be rewarding this type of treatment from a manufacturer we are supposed to trust.
I don't want to use a stupid iPad for my work. I want a discrete GPU, and a powerful processor, and a MagSafe port, and ThunderBolt, and HDMI, and USB 3.0 ports.
I'm not gonna drive around and tell Patriot, SanDisk, Corsair and all my accessory manufacturers to build USB C now or I'm leaving. I have a keyboard. I like it. I don't want to replace it. It's better than any of your keyboards. It uses USB 3.0. I don't want to put it on a stupid dongle. My mouse? It's better than any of your mice. It uses USB 3.0. I don't want to put it on a stupid dongle.
I was going to buy a Thunderbolt display. I don't want to connect it to a stupid dongle. So now I will not buy a Thunderbolt display.
I, and apparently millions of other people, are speaking with our wallets. We're telling you nothing but USB C ports are stupid. Lighter and thinner is stupid at this extreme. Taking away discrete graphics from your 15" macbook unless we spend another $500 is stupid. Making the MacBook PRO more like the neutered, gimmicky, Starbucks Macbook 12" is stupid, getting rid of the MacBook Air is stupid, removing the headphone jack is stupid. You're not being courageous, you're being stupid. And stupid people lose money and that's exactly what happened to you this year. You lost money compared to last year.

Meanwhile somewhere in Asia, there is a brilliant kid that creates a killer app from a computer that is 4 years old whilst you are still here moaning. Its fine not to like something and voting with your wallet but its not fine to act like a spoilt kid which is what you just did with your text. Wanna be taken seriously? Be constructive and keep emotions checked - that is the best way to be heard. The thing above is just like a stroppy kid. Is that how you wanna be perceived by others?
 

Seanm87

macrumors 68020
Oct 10, 2014
2,124
4,156
I'm quite surprised people think new macs are going to make that much of a difference. Even apple know this hence why their keynote is a lot more low key than septembers. Even tech websites don't seem to care that much.

The world has moved on from full laptops. They'all always have a place for business and professionals but most people just use their smartphones or tablets to search the web now. I don't know anyone outside of work that browses YouTube on a laptop.

People here aren't representative of the real world. We're all tech nerds. So of course a high percentage of people here use macs. For most people they're way too much power than needed for simple web browsing. Apple don't care either otherwise this would have been a big event in September but even Apple Watch is a bigger deal to them. They know the demand won't be as big as an iPhone or even a watch.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AxiomaticRubric

LizKat

macrumors 604
Aug 5, 2004
6,766
36,273
Catskill Mountains
The enormous and increasingly exploding number of new technologies available to computer companies on a daily basis, makes a product line that looks about the same as it did a decade ago less than thrilling.

Apple has found success and matured, and become very conservative and cautious. That comes with its own risks and dangers in a market that boasts a narrative of continual and accelerating innovation. I hope they find some direction forward.

A lot of the innovation going forward will be software as the tech industry migrates from "gadgets I must have" to the ever expanding "but this is what I want to do" issue. Demand for mechanical engineers is already declining, software engineering demand rising and at steeper angle. Stuff like the ATT acquisition of Time Warner (which may yet collapse) is a high-five that everything's ultimately about content (yah, "data") and how to serve it onto whatever hardware there is. NASA's focus on getting software right has turned some budget-crunched hardware into some spectacular successes, no thanks to... well I'll leave that there.

Sure, someone has to design and build and tweak hardware to suit the purpose at hand, but the real money's in software for those expanding purposes. There's a lot more fiddling with the brains of auto-driving cars than there is messing about with the engine...

So finally no need to get a new iPhone every year? Believe me, Apple won't put one up as more than an updated placeholder when that's the case, and they've got that case made and pegged someplace on their forward calendar already.

So Tim... needs to fix iTunes a'ready? ;)
 
  • Like
Reactions: AxiomaticRubric

bjet767

Suspended
Oct 2, 2010
967
319
Comparison to Microsoft:

Microsoft ( MSFT ) announced its earnings for Q1 FY17 on October 20th. (Fiscal years end with June.) The company posted a 3% year-over-year growth (5% in constant currency) in revenues to $20.453 billion. In our pre-earnings note , we noted that cloud services would boost revenues across productivity and business processes and intelligent cloud divisions. Commercial cloud annualized revenue run rate exceeded $13 billion, and the company is on course to achieve $20 billion annual run rate by fiscal year 2018. As a result, the stock was trading at all-time high on Thursday (after market hours).

However, the secular decline in PC shipments, together with the rising popularity of Chrome OS, impacted revenues for personal computing division. Below, we review Microsoft's Q1 FY 17 (Q3 CY2016) results by segment.



Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/micro...venue-improve-slightly-cm697401#ixzz4O7CpIol1

Note however their PC shipments are in decline.

Apples to Apples

Essentially Apple sells products in what is known as a "mature" product cycle. Moore's first law no longer applies and the second is questionable.

From Wiki:

Moore's second law[edit]
Further information: Rock's law
As the cost of computer power to the consumer falls, the cost for producers to fulfill Moore's law follows an opposite trend: R&D, manufacturing, and test costs have increased steadily with each new generation of chips. Rising manufacturing costs are an important consideration for the sustaining of Moore's law.[38] This had led to the formulation of Moore's second law, also called Rock's law, which is that the capital cost of a semiconductor fab also increases exponentially over time.[39][40]
 
  • Like
Reactions: AxiomaticRubric

JohnGrey

macrumors 6502
Apr 21, 2012
298
557
Cincinnati Metro
Meanwhile somewhere in Asia, there is a brilliant kid that creates a killer app from a computer that is 4 years old whilst you are still here moaning. Its fine not to like something and voting with your wallet but its not fine to act like a spoilt kid which is what you just did with your text. Wanna be taken seriously? Be constructive and keep emotions checked - that is the best way to be heard. The thing above is just like a stroppy kid. Is that how you wanna be perceived by others?

If you expect them to keep their emotions in check, then you need to castigate Tim and company for preying on those same emotions to hawk overpriced and antiquated hardware.
 

AllSeasonsCyclist

macrumors newbie
Oct 12, 2016
11
17
Maybe the current line of Macs were not being sold in the antique department it would help boost sales. I am dying to buy three new Macs, but I don't want ancient technology.
 

dbri306

macrumors member
Sep 14, 2013
52
25
Windsor, Canada
Well that's what happens when you do not have any new products..
People don't necessarily want new products, look at the Apple watch - it's a reasonably good device and still not many takers. How many more new products we can use? Keeping your products line updated, listening to the customers and creating a grate value - it's entirely different story. Apple often failed in these areas over the last few years.
 

TheAustrianGuy

macrumors 6502
Apr 20, 2010
263
584
I know - Apple is a premium brand.
However, the current prices of (especially) iPhones are outrageous (especially in Europe).
With more and more telecom companies stopping their phone subsidizing practices, people start to see what iPhones actually cost. And many of them just stop buying them. (Yes, people are that stupid - they really thought the telecoms gave something away when their iPhones were "cheaper".)

I am puzzled about why Apple won't expand their iPhone subscription to more countries.
This would probably be the only way to stop the downturn and generate more sales.
 

AP_piano295

macrumors 65816
Mar 9, 2005
1,076
17
I'm not buying a phone that doesn't have a 3.5mm aux, a feature that 10's of millions of people use every single day is not "obsolete technology".
[doublepost=1477414667][/doublepost]
Even if the MacBooks refresh and they're great, I still don't trust them.
I went balls deep into the 2012 Retina MacBook Pro and look where that got me. Invested into a system that got a marginal VRAM bump the next year, thankfully a CPU refresh. Then 2014 came around... Then 2015 came around...
What was my reward for investing into their eco system? Tim Cook telling me I can get my work done with a damn iPad.
No Tim. No I can't.
My job is literally to build applications for the iPad, and now I can't do it as well because I'm on inferior technology.
What's next? We invest heavily into this generation of MacBook Pro's, maybe get one very mild subtle GPU upgrade next year and be stuck on Skylake CPU's for four years?
We should not be rewarding this type of treatment from a manufacturer we are supposed to trust.
I don't want to use a stupid iPad for my work. I want a discrete GPU, and a powerful processor, and a MagSafe port, and ThunderBolt, and HDMI, and USB 3.0 ports.
I'm not gonna drive around and tell Patriot, SanDisk, Corsair and all my accessory manufacturers to build USB C now or I'm leaving. I have a keyboard. I like it. I don't want to replace it. It's better than any of your keyboards. It uses USB 3.0. I don't want to put it on a stupid dongle. My mouse? It's better than any of your mice. It uses USB 3.0. I don't want to put it on a stupid dongle.
I was going to buy a Thunderbolt display. I don't want to connect it to a stupid dongle. So now I will not buy a Thunderbolt display.
I, and apparently millions of other people, are speaking with our wallets. We're telling you nothing but USB C ports are stupid. Lighter and thinner is stupid at this extreme. Taking away discrete graphics from your 15" macbook unless we spend another $500 is stupid. Making the MacBook PRO more like the neutered, gimmicky, Starbucks Macbook 12" is stupid, getting rid of the MacBook Air is stupid, removing the headphone jack is stupid. You're not being courageous, you're being stupid. And stupid people lose money and that's exactly what happened to you this year. You lost money compared to last year.

Exactly ****ing right, I will not buy products that have had essential standard features removed because the people at Apple think they have a "vision" of the future.

There is a perfectly reasonable case to be made for removing certain technologies that have become superfluous, even if those technologies are still part of the standard. It is not reasonable to remove features that the vast majority of users take advantage of daily because you think your customers aren't forward thinking enough.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: FriendFace

ob81

macrumors 65816
Jun 11, 2007
1,406
356
Virginia Beach
People are speaking with their wallets. Apple is going to take this the wrong way though. They will take this as people not interested in the Mac. We want phones and watch bands is what they will take from this. I cannot recall a time where I felt my Mac experience was inferior to Windows.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nt5672

LovingTeddy

Suspended
Oct 12, 2015
1,848
2,153
Canada
What counts as a flop? It's the best selling smart watch. Just because smart watches isn't for everyone doesn't mean it's a flop. I love mine personally


The whole smart watch thing is flop... Frankly wether from Apple or competitors, I just do not see the appeal. Apple watch maybe the best selling smart watch, it is still a smart watch. And the smart watch market is not growing.
 

AxiomaticRubric

macrumors 6502a
Sep 24, 2010
939
1,110
On Mars, Praising the Omnissiah
Even if the MacBooks refresh and they're great, I still don't trust them.
I went balls deep into the 2012 Retina MacBook Pro and look where that got me. Invested into a system that got a marginal VRAM bump the next year, thankfully a CPU refresh. Then 2014 came around... Then 2015 came around...
What was my reward for investing into their eco system? Tim Cook telling me I can get my work done with a damn iPad.
No Tim. No I can't.

Tim never said an iPad could replace a PC for *everyone*
 

petsounds

macrumors 65816
Jun 30, 2007
1,493
519
If Apple was really worried about this they would have scheduled the Mac event before earnings to provide positive news. So this investor estimate may not even be correct.
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.