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Demand will easily out strip supply

N

needthephone

macrumors 6502a
Original poster
Apr 4, 2006
813
0
sydney
Everybody should be prepared to wait for the iphone as worldwide demand will initially outstrip supply.

They are "only" going to make 1-3million initially followed by 8 million in the 4th Quarter (according to Bank of America )

With all the launch markets and the huge US and European demand they are going to be like Hens Teeth in Australia

I'm not trying to hype it up even more (as if this was possible anyway) but the world is fit to burst and everyone you speak to knows about it and desperately covets one.

This is a phenomina like the world has ever seen or will probably ever see again. You will be able to say I was there at those heady days when they launched the iphone worldwide.

Bank of America: 3G iPhone in June
Apple's planned second-generation iPhone, equipped with 3G broadband, will likely ship in June, according to an analyst from the Bank of America. "Our latest channel checks point to a significant production build of a 3G iPhone beginning in the month of June after a initial small build in May," says Scott Craig. Carrier partner AT&T has previously announced that a 3G iPhone will arrive in 2008, Reuters notes, but has otherwise remained quiet on when it might ship.

Craig is raising his estimates of production volume for the new phone, suggesting that 3 million will be built in May, to be followed by another 8 million in the third quarter of the year. This surpasses even recent estimates by Gartner, which pegged Apple as ordering a full million less units. Craig says he had previously expected just 8 million phones to be built in all of 2008.

A separate researcher, Avi Greengart of Current Analysis, argues that the timing of the 3G phone is meant to coincide with the iPhone 2.0 firmware due at the same time, which will primarily introduce the ability to download and install native third-party software.


http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSN2832403820080328/
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edesignuk said:
uh huh :p

Yeah, it'll be in demand. It'll be even more in demand once a one-click unlock is posted ;)
Click to expand...

to be honest i think they're going to have to offer an unlocked version this time round. in countries where multiple carriers are supporting the new iphone, what if i buy it directly from an apple store? surely those iphones will be unlocked?
 
needthephone said:
Everybody should be prepared to wait for the iphone as worldwide demand will initially outstrip supply.

They are "only" going to make 1 million initially followed by 8 million in the 4th Quarter (according to Bank of America )
With all the launch markets and the huge US and European demand they are going to be like Hens Teeth in Australia
I'm not trying to hype it up even more (as if this was possible anyway) but the world is fit to burst and everyone you speak to knows about it and desperately covets one.
This is a phenomina like the world has ever seen or will probably ever see again. You will be able to say I was there at those heady days when they launched the iphone worldwide.
Click to expand...

Wasn't it more like 300,000 for May, 3 million in June, then rocking off another 22 million till this model tapers down? (That's then roughly 2 million a month if the model is for 12 months). You seem to contradict yourself saying 1 million when your quote says 3 million for June.

Nokia I imagine has seen these numbers ;)

http://www.engadget.com/2008/04/28/foxconn-wins-3g-iphone-contract-3-million-units-shipping-in-jun/
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/1445938/
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20080428PB202.html
They're going off sources saying these are Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry) numbers.
 
mhuk01 said:
to be honest i think they're going to have to offer an unlocked version this time round. in countries where multiple carriers are supporting the new iphone, what if i buy it directly from an apple store? surely those iphones will be unlocked?
Click to expand...
Fair point, but there's still nothing to say devices shipped to certain countries will only work there on specified carriers. Apple and the telcos are a bunch of weenies, I wouldn't put anything past them.
 
edesignuk said:
uh huh :p

Yeah, it'll be in demand. It'll be even more in demand once a one-click unlock is posted ;)
Click to expand...

We might not need that either. With multiple carriers promising to sell the iPhone in the same country(I know Vodafone and Airtel will in India) I really doubt there will be any need to unlock. The current system of selling iPhones (at a fixed price point) might be completely discarded as we are hearing bout possible discounts and schemes to added to the iPhone. I wont be surprised if Apple announces iPhone 3G will be available without any carrier contract for a reasonable premium(unlike the one we get in France).

Once there is an unlocked version of iPhone is available, there will be no stopping the iPhone sales.
 
needthephone said:
With all the launch markets and the huge US and European demand...
Click to expand...

"Huge European demand" really?...they had to reduce the price of iphones in some European markets just to get rid of the initial launch stock and a lack of 3G wasn't the problem.
Any European shortages shortages are more likely to be caused by carriers ordering conservative levels of stock to avoid having to discount a second time to stimulate interest.
 
Calm down, there'll be plenty to go around.

Do you think Apple will risk loosing profits by not meeting demand?


They dont use microsofts marketing teqniques of 'producing minimalst, to ramp up more hype' as this is an outdated strategy, due to the global technology market bursting with competitors.
 
Hudzilla said:
Calm down, there'll be plenty to go around.

Do you think Apple will risk loosing profits by not meeting demand?


They dont use microsofts marketing teqniques of 'producing minimalst, to ramp up more hype' as this is an outdated strategy, due to the global technology market bursting with competitors.
Click to expand...


If its so outdated, why is it working for the wii?
 
Drumjim85 said:
If its so outdated, why is it working for the wii?
Click to expand...

IMO it isn't, before Christmas you couldn't get hold of one for love nor money, now stores are bursting with them, therefore unable to generate the hype they once had. Dont get me wrong, I have one myself and think they are fantastic, but for alot of people they were novelty items. Now if nintendo produced a steady stream of them through Christmas and before people would see them as a strong games console competitor.

Just my thoughts.
 
senorFunkyPants said:
O2 report that of its non iphone users 1.8% sent/receive more 25mb a month...which considering that the data bolt-on is only £7.50 a month indicates low interest in mobile phone internet access.
Click to expand...
No doubt true enough, but then this is because mobile web browsing sucks on pretty much all phones...which is what Apple are trying to change, and to have a good mobile browsing experience you want 3G.
 
It's of historical interest to look back to Nov 2006, months before the phone was publicly revealed.

There were many accurate news reports that Foxconn was going to build a new "iPhone" for Apple. They all said that there would be 12 million first models built.

Hon Hai gets order for 12 million iPhones- Nov 2006

Then overzealous analysts extrapolated it all to predict that Apple would ship 20-29 million phones in its first year:

Order and analysis - TUAW Nov 2006

Which we all know didn't happen. Just something to keep in mind.
 
edesignuk said:
No doubt true enough, but then this is because mobile web browsing sucks on pretty much all phones...which is what Apple are trying to change, and to have a good mobile browsing experience you want 3G.
Click to expand...

I think what peeps who are into gadgets/computers/mobiles/hifi etc tend to forget is that the vast majority of the population simply aren't interested. 60 plus million mobiles in the Uk with IIRC 20% 3G enabled but data usage is still very low (but admittedly on the increase). Even with the iphone the screen is too small to make browsing easy and video calls never took off like I thought it might. Certainly to maximise your market a mobile needs 3G, but I just can't see where a significant number of new buyers for iphones are going to come from unless (at least in the UK) carriers drastically reduce the cost of ownership.
I certainly only bought my iphone because of this and other reputable websites giving jailbreaking instructions, I just wouldn't pay £35 a month to use a mobile...in fact I just renegotiated my contract - 275mins and 250 texts for £5 a month, I could have had the O2 data bolt on for an extra £5 but didn't bother (although I might still change my mind.)
The addition of GPS to the new iphone OTOH would be very attractive as my old IPAQ 3630 running Tomtom is on its last legs.
 
The Korean and Japan markets may be part of the 3G release since it is required in these two countries.

This could create even more pent up buying demand.
 
needthephone said:
I'm not trying to hype it up even more (as if this was possible anyway) but the world is fit to burst and everyone you speak to knows about it and desperately covets one.

This is a phenomina like the world has ever seen or will probably ever see again. You will be able to say I was there at those heady days when they launched the iphone worldwide.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes:

Just keep repeating "it's only a phone, it's only a phone ..."
 
jrbdmb said:
:rolleyes:

Just keep repeating "it's only a phone, it's only a phone ..."
Click to expand...

If you watched big brother, you might see the potential
It's only a gameshow, it's only a gameshow lilt-

it's only an iphone, it's only an iphone...
 
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