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1-2 Year Resale Value Predictions

MICHAELSD

MICHAELSD

macrumors 603
Original poster
Jul 13, 2008
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Having been keeping a close eye on the resale market within the first few days of the Watch's release it has become clear to me that my initial predictions are correct: the stainless steel with a Sport band is only going for around $200 over the Sport on average, which leads to ~ $40 less profit and no premium for the SS. Taking this into consideration, I think resale values between generations before fees (having been selling iPhones and iPads to upgrade annually) will be the following for Watches with normal wear:

~ 65-85% for the Sport
~ 55-75% for the SS Watch
- 35-55% for the Edition (logic being that if someone can justify $6,000 for a Watch, they can justify $10,000 for a new Edition Watch)

Non-Sport bands will add roughly 75% of their initial value if sold with any of the above.
 
MICHAELSD said:
Having been keeping a close eye on the resale market within the first few days of the Watch's release it has become clear to me that my initial predictions are correct: the stainless steel with a Sport band is only going for around $200 over the Sport on average, which leads to ~ $40 less profit and no premium for the SS. Taking this into consideration, I think resale values between generations before fees (having been selling iPhones and iPads to upgrade annually) will be the following for Watches with normal wear:

~ 65-85% for the Sport
~ 55-75% for the SS Watch
- 35-55% for the Edition (logic being that if someone can justify $6,000 for a Watch, they can justify $10,000 for a new Edition Watch)
Click to expand...

I think the SS sounds right (and who knows for the Edition), but I'm guessing less for the sport given the likely scratches unless there is an easy way to polish them off. This is coming from a future sport owner.
 
iWot said:
I think the SS sounds right (and who knows for the Edition), but I'm guessing less for the sport given the likely scratches unless there is an easy way to polish them off. This is coming from a future sport owner.
Click to expand...

My iPad Air in mint condition after the 2 came out went for only a 15% hit before fees, so as long as the Watch is taken care of I wouldn't expect Apple's typically-high resale levels for products to be different. If a user expects to bang it up, the SS may be a better option.
 
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I think it will be low. The difference between iPad and iPad 2 was tremendous. It might be this way for the 2nd or 3rd Apple Watch.
 
trekkie604 said:
iPads and iPhones you don't sweat all over. Watches you do. I wouldn't buy a used watch.
Click to expand...

iPads and iPhones you touch after touching other disgusting things and never clean it, I'd never buy most used electronics, especially after finding a bloody iPhone during some inventory test work...
 
I think that they'll be in inverse order.

Sports is the lease durable of the three and is made of the lesser quality of material. I expect this version to lose more money on investment.

I think that the SS will be the sweet spot.

The Edition will not retain only 35-55% of its value. It's gold. People who buy it won't care about its specs. They buy it because they want elite status, they want the gold Apple Watch. Besides people who buy the Apple Watch Edition won't sell it off. If they can afford it then they'd probably just give it to their spouse or child or just keep it as a memoir.
 
taedouni said:
I think that they'll be in inverse order.

Sports is the lease durable of the three and is made of the lesser quality of material. I expect this version to lose more money on investment.

I think that the SS will be the sweet spot.
Click to expand...

So many people get this wrong. You'll almost always recoup the most of the initial cost selling the base model, no matter how undesirable it may be to some people. That's why you recoup most of the cost selling the lowly 16GB iPhones, even though that's not enough storage for many here. Likewise, the base, lowest trim vehicle with the fewest options has the best resale value compared to the full boat counterpart.

The OP is correct. The base Watch models (which happen to be the Sport) will have the best resale value.
 
I think the biggest factor will be the price and specs of the gen 2 watch (Assuming we see one within 18-24 months). If it's a marginal spec increase with a similar price point and compatible accessories, Gen 1 will probably hold its value very well. If it's much better with meaningful new features and a lower price point... well then the early adopter tax will be in full effect. :p
 
I think resale is going to be a lot lower than some are expecting.

It'll be comparable to the resale value of a Bluetooth headset.

The watch is merely accessory that doesn't offer sufficient utility on its own to justify a high resale price. And people who find $350 too high a price right now won't be willing to pay $250-300 for someone else's used wearable. They might be tempted for under $100, but even that's pushing it: It'll be last year's well-worn fashion item - so think more in the ballpark of second hand clothing prices.
 
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taedouni said:
I think that they'll be in inverse order.

Sports is the lease durable of the three and is made of the lesser quality of material. I expect this version to lose more money on investment.

I think that the SS will be the sweet spot.

The Edition will not retain only 35-55% of its value. It's gold. People who buy it won't care about its specs. They buy it because they want elite status, they want the gold Apple Watch. Besides people who buy the Apple Watch Edition won't sell it off. If they can afford it then they'd probably just give it to their spouse or child or just keep it as a memoir.
Click to expand...

It never works like that.

People that have money tend to buy new at full retail price. People that are less affluent tend to buy used at a reduced price. Hence they are looking at price first and foremost and aren't willing to pay [much] extra for a higher-end model.

The only exception is when the specifications are drastically better for the higher-end model. But all three versions of the apple watch are functionally the same.

Hence the SS will take a bigger hit than the Al model.
 
whatos said:
Very soft. The next gen will be so much better this model won't be worth much. Mass produced in the millions it's nothing special.
Click to expand...

Every other Apple product is mass-produced, yet holds up at least 60% of its value between generations.
 
taedouni said:
I think that the SS will be the sweet spot.
Click to expand...

I know where you're coming from with that. I was thinking the same myself.

However, SS is today's aspirational model. It's the one many would like today, but find the extra $200 indigestible. So you could kind-of imagine it being snapped up for, say, $300 less in a year's time.

But looking ahead, in a year's time there will be a brand-new sport model with extra oomph and features that will be in the same price ballpark as that worn-out SS. I think the new features will win, sending SS secondhand prices down further.
 
Arran said:
I know where you're coming from with that. I was thinking the same myself.

However, SS is today's aspirational model. It's the one many would like today, but find the extra $200 indigestible. So you could kind-of imagine it being snapped up for, say, $300 less in a year's time.

But looking ahead, in a year's time there will be a brand-new sport model with extra oomph and features that will be in the same price ballpark as that worn-out SS. I think the new features will win, sending SS secondhand prices down.
Click to expand...

Good way to look at it. If Apple upgrades the Sport display to Sapphire, SS resale value is gone.
 
MICHAELSD said:
Every other Apple product is mass-produced, yet holds up at least 60% of its value between generations.
Click to expand...

Indeed. But sustained demand for the watch doesn't seem to be there. And without demand, you can't sustain a healthy second-hand market.

----------
MICHAELSD said:
Good way to look at it. If Apple upgrades the Sport display to Sapphire, SS resale value is gone.
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Good point. Seems very plausible. Sapphire, despite sounding like a rare gemstone, is not really that expensive. It should be in the sport model today.
 
My bet ... 30% for Sport and Steel; simple because the next version(s) will improve energy efficiency that not many people want the older one. But sure that my own wild guess & stomach-driven. I guess I would keep mine ...
 
Arran said:
Good point. Seems plausible. Sapphire, despite sounding like a rare gemstone, is not really that expensive.
Click to expand...

Surprised they didn't just add it to all the models. IMO it's the main selling point of the SS, and I still don't see the point of spending $200 extra.
 
The used luxury watch market holds pretty good value esp for non-mass-produced watches.

Gen 1 Apple watches will probably hold a fair amount of value for a short time -- the Apple effect will be there. After that they will probably drop like a rock quickly.

The Edition price will hold strictly due to the price of gold, even those the electronics will be way out of date.

For those that grew up in the 80s and 90s, you'll see the Apple Watch is the modern Swatch. Don't think luxury watchmakers will have much to worry about -- manual winding and self-winding watches are their own special cult. But the Apple Watch will be all about buying different bands, mixing and matching, as people try to find uniqueness in a mass produced luxury item.
 
Used Sport is going for $100, TOPS. Next year version 2 will be much better and who wants a used rubber band?


Resale value is going to be pretty low on these, in a month these will be easily available at any Apple Store or online, why buy used unless there is a MASSIVE discount
 
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