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Analysis: Why the next MBP update will be a significant redesign

L

leetlamer

macrumors member
Original poster
Nov 9, 2010
58
0
Apple is moving towards removing the dvd drive:
  • The App Store for Mac means that Apple is moving away from the traditional software model where you would buy it in a store with a physical dvd towards digital downloads. That brings me to my next point.
  • Apple is phasing out boxed software from its retail stores.
  • Apple is experimenting with getting OS X Lion via the App Store. Currently, the only way to get OS X Lion is through the App Store.
  • Apple is not afraid of removing the DVD drive. The MacBook Air has never had a DVD drive and they were one of the first companies to do so.
  • AirDrop in Mac OS X Lion. Who needs to burn files to a disc when you can effortlessly share them over WiFi?
  • Thunderbolt makes external storage and dvd drives faster than ever.

Apple is clearly shifting away from the optical media.

Improving SSD technology
  • With the removal of the dvd drive, there is now more room for a larger battery and a supplemental SSD in addition to a normal hard drive.
  • Mac OS X Lion has TRIM support. This command improves the durability of SSDs and reduces potential performance problems. SSDs are ready to go mainstream.
  • Apple is increasingly using Intel technology (Sandy Bridge graphics, Thunderbolt, etc). Which brings me to my next point.
  • Intel is working on SSD caching technology, which allows a SSD to act as a cache for a larger hard drive, similar to the Momentus XT. This tech is featured in the upcoming Z68 chipset for Sandy Bridge, and will likely be in the chipsets for the Sandy Bridge sequel, Ivy Bridge, to be used in the next MBPs.
  • This means the new MBPs will feature a standard SSD for speed, much like the MBA, but also have a mechanical HDD for storage.
  • New cloud storage features in Mac OS X Lion. Less reliance on hard drive space.

Apple is clearly moving towards SSD mass adoption.

Apple barely even acknowledged the most recent update. The next one will be big
  • No fanfare, no announcement, merely updating the Apple Store
  • This is not seen as a major update, because it is nothing compared to the next one.
  • Liquidmetal, anyone?
  • Apple's OS X Lion represents its commitment "Back to the Mac". A major hardware update to go along with its major software update follows this mantra.

In conclusion, the combination of new developments in SSD technology, new features in OS X Lion, as well as Apple's shift away from physical dvds all point towards a major update when Ivy Bridge comes.

Ultimately, only Apple knows what is really going to happen, but because of sheer amount of evidence and motive, I believe the next MBP update will be a major change from current models.

P.S. A bit unrelated but still significant is the new Ivy Bridge GPU has DX11, full OpenCL support, and will be 30% faster. Get used to it folks, no more discrete GPUs for the 13" models.
 
Even if they don't redesign the entire style, I still would like to see the optical drive removed.

With it removed, Apple can restore that 10 hour battery life and still be able to have a Quad Core + Mid/High End video card and probably make it run cooler. If they don't use the extra space for extra battery space, they can always use it for storage.
 
Apple will redesign the next macbook pro ONLY because I didn't buy the recentmost refresh. That's how it works. Sorry guys.
 
ayeying said:
Even if they don't redesign the entire style, I still would like to see the optical drive removed.

With it removed, Apple can restore that 10 hour battery life and still be able to have a Quad Core + Mid/High End video card and probably make it run cooler. If they don't use the extra space for extra battery space, they can always use it for storage.
Click to expand...

I agree. I think the removal of the optical drive is guaranteed at this point. Things like removing boxed software from the retail stores, new free MobileMe, the Mac App Store. It all points to the removal of the optical drive.

IMO:
No more DVD Drive: For sure
Standard SSDs: Very likely
Liquidmetal: Maybe. IMO I think it will be in the new iPhone first, but who knows.
 
Oh yes,

and also this :
Processor
Intel Ivy Bridge: 20%-30% Performance Boost Over Sandy Bridge.

13000 Geekbench score sounds awesome. :cool:
 
I doubt Apple will be removing the optical drive in the next gen MBPs unless it's going to cancel the MBA line. I doubt its going to do that either. The world is moving fast toward a download-only track but we are not there yet, for many reasons, but mostly because not everyone in the world has access to decent broadband.
 
I heard if you wait till late 2014 there will be even more significant redesign.

My speculation that is as legitimate as everything else stated in this thread: There won't be an update like this for a significant amount of time.
 
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Buy as you need. Some of you guys will never be happy regardless of what apple puts out.

Apple is a tech company. Theyll leave things out just to create an update.
 
And how exactly are people going to install software that currently would take up 100 GB if installing from Hard Disk?
 
Im already saving up for this update. I decided to pass on this one, since I bought the 2010 MBP and its still doing everything I need. But I probably will upgrade in mid 2012, after the rev A's work out whatever bugs may be present.
 
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ayeying said:
Even if they don't redesign the entire style, I still would like to see the optical drive removed.

With it removed, Apple can restore that 10 hour battery life and still be able to have a Quad Core + Mid/High End video card and probably make it run cooler. If they don't use the extra space for extra battery space, they can always use it for storage.
Click to expand...

Oh my god!! The battery life did not go down!! Apple changed the testing methods to make the estimates more accurate. The same batteries are in 2010 and 2011 MacBooks!!
 
I really don't get all of this speculation.

So....Apple is going to do a complete redesign....in a year. A year is a very long time, its not 2 months from now.
 
SidewaysTakumi said:
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Oh my god!! The battery life did not go down!! Apple changed the testing methods to make the estimates more accurate. The same batteries are in 2010 and 2011 MacBooks!!
Click to expand...

It's the same batteries, not the same usage of power on the system. If you have a large leak in a bucket, it'll run out of water faster then if you had a small leak. It doesn't matter if you have the same bucket or not.

Compared to the 2010, the 2010 would have a higher battery time compared to the 2011, using the same tests.
 
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So you have a few facts, and you use them to make what can only be called a leap of faith towards your desired conclusion. I would say this is a giant case of petitio principii.
 
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hmmm... i think a redesign is eminent, too. sooner than later. especially, if apple looks around the marketplace and seeing the rest of the industry adopting aluminum and their design cues. a few i can think of are the sony viao's, samsungs and even the new hp's are looking more and more like MBP's. so, maybe liquidmetal next year is not so far fetch, depending on how much apple wants to keep that innovative edge. but, as it is, i think, the current MBP design is awesome.

my 2 cents.
 
I think they wont take away the optical drive from the pro. If they do, im wasting my $1000+. Macbook Pro needs one. Unless next year, NOBODY needs an optical drive, its a bad idea. How will I download Windows to do Boot Camp? Im pretty sure the Microsoft wont be putting it on the Mac App Store soon.
I think Apples doing all this "No CD" thing to begin a shift from CD to download for their products like the MBA and iPad.
:apple:
The highest end laptops on the market need an optical drive.
 
hoxley said:
And how exactly are people going to install software that currently would take up 100 GB if installing from Hard Disk?
Click to expand...

I don't have an optical drive in my windows laptop, no problems at all. It was pretty expensive, but I was willing to give up the optical drive to get a little more thinness.

I buy all my software via download and I have a Steam library for games.

For BD authoring or burning recovery discs, I use a Buffalo USB 3.0 external 12x BD writer.
 
yanksrock100 said:
I think they wont take away the optical drive from the pro. If they do, im wasting my $1000+. Macbook Pro needs one. Unless next year, NOBODY needs an optical drive, its a bad idea. How will I download Windows to do Boot Camp? Im pretty sure the Microsoft wont be putting it on the Mac App Store soon.
I think Apples doing all this "No CD" thing to begin a shift from CD to download for their products like the MBA and iPad.
:apple:
The highest end laptops on the market need an optical drive.
Click to expand...


Hmm. My windows 7 was a digital download and I installed it into bootcamp via usb thumb drive. And the highest end laptops can be the 17'' mbp.
 
The time of non-integrated optical drives is coming, but It is not here yet. Just the fact that you are on a forum arguing about this puts you out of the realm of the average user. So many people still rip CDs, watch DVDs, install software by disc, burn CDs to play in their car, burn data DVDs to back things up…

Apple will ship notebooks with optical drives until their data indicates that this is no longer needed. That might be soon, or it might not. Apple has the data, we do not.
 
I disagree with almost every prediction made by the OP.

You're suggesting Apple will replace the, relatively inexpensive, superdrive with an SSD, keep the HDD, Add battery life, And have a 20%-30% increase in cpu performance IN ADDITION to a complete body overhaul? That would bump up the base MBP price A LOT

And you claim Apple doesnt see this most recent update as major AND THEN you want to insinuate thats because they want to keep it quiet for NEXT YEARS update so it wont hurt sales????Seriously???
 
yanksrock100 said:
Maybe they should....
Drop the 13 in MBP (Have the air be their new king)
And thats their "Non Optical drive" MBP
Good idea?
Click to expand...

No. The 13" MBP is their most popular laptop, it would be a very poor business decision to drop it. Plus they can put far more powerful processors in the MBP than in the Air
 
I feel like the OP makes a lot of good points. But here is another good point.

I've talked with many people over the years on MacRumors. I've met some people who upgrade their computers every refresh. I've asked them, how do you do it? But it's simple, they sell off the old machine since Mac's keep a high resale value. They end up losing $300, but around $300 a year is pretty good if you consider it renting a computer while getting to always have the latest and greatest.

For instance, my MBP (not the new one I'm getting in the mail Wednesday) is almost exactly three years old. It was $2000 new, plus $100 to upgrade to 4GB ram and another $100 to upgrade to 500GB drive. So $2200. Today, a similarly spec'd MBP on CL, eBay, or MR Forums goes for, last I checked, around $700-800. So it lost about $1400 value in three years. That's about $470 a year to own a machine and stay with the slower speed. But if you look at the last generation of Macbook Pros, they are only $200-300 below the current gen on these same sites.

So if you wait to upgrade, you end up losing money over that period of time and you have a slower machine for longer. So we should all just upgrade every year. Since I had already waited awhile I decided I would upgrade whenever quad-cores hit the MBP line. I just might do the same thing next year if I can sell my current machine for a good price. My main concern is getting my wife on-board, as I don't think she completely understands what I mean. But I do this every year with my iPhone. Hell, last year I ended up selling my 3GS for $350 on CL! After iPhone 4 32GB purchase, taxes and activation, I ended up getting the newest iPhone and $9 in my pocket. Sounds crazy, but it's true. Hopefully I can be as successful as others on MR with the MacBook Pros and do this also next year so I can get a crazy touch-screen triple SSD ThunderBolt 2.0 liquid-metal MBP.
 
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