120,000 iPads pre-ordered on first day?

Discussion in 'iPad' started by *LTD*, Mar 13, 2010.

  1. *LTD* macrumors G4

    *LTD*

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    #1
    http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/03/13/day-1-estimate-120000-ipads-sold/

    120,000 iPads pre-ordered on first day?
    Saturday, March 13, 2010 - 12:39 PM EST

    "The team at Investor Village's AAPL Sanity board have completed their initial analysis of pre-orders for the iPad tablet computer," Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune. "Apple began taking orders on Friday for delivery starting April 3."

    Based on a sampling of 48 orders (for 54 iPads), and not counting units that were reserved but not ordered, the Sanity team estimates:

    • Nearly 120,000 iPads sold
    • Wi-Fi-only models (avail. Apr. 3) outpaced Wi-Fi + 3G (avila. "late April") orders 69% to 31%, respectively.
    • Storage capacity breakdown: 16GB - 40%, 32GB - 28%, 64GB - 33%

    Elmer-DeWitt reports, "Estimates of the number of iPads Apple will have manufactured by April range from a high of 1 million to a low of 300,000.
    "
     
  2. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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  3. admanimal macrumors 68040

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    #3
    http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/

    This is the guy who actually does the analysis...he provides slightly more detail of how its done.
     
  4. OllyW Moderator

    OllyW

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    #4
    If you click on the link to the report it now says..

    It still doesn't seem enough to make an accurate estimate though.
     
  5. admanimal macrumors 68040

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    #5
    They aren't just taking a survey of these users, in which case the sample would be way to small. They are basing the numbers on the order number sequence from one order to the next. It's not an exact science but the guy says he has had success with this in the past.
     
  6. Bodhi395 macrumors 6502a

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    #6
    Wow, that is a ton of ipads for only one day of sales. Also, it doesn't even include the reserved ipads for pick up at stores, which is how I ordered mine.

    I think it shows the ipad is going to be huge!
     
  7. marksman macrumors 603

    marksman

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    #7
    A sampling of a couple thousand houses tells all tv advertisers what 300 million people watch on tv allegedly, so you never know.
     
  8. Scarpad macrumors 68000

    Scarpad

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    #8
    Gonna get a 3g might notuseit all timebut nice to have the Option
     
  9. DaveSW macrumors 6502

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    #9
    absolutely amazing. 120,000 iPads in 1 Day.


    in comparison Google only sold 20,000 Nexus One's in the first WEEK - 7 days!

    250,000 Motorola Droid was sold in the first Week as well.

    500,000 Tablet PCs were sold the ENTIRE YEAR in 2003.
     
  10. jedivulcan macrumors 6502

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    #10
    You just compared the presumed iPad pre-orders to two recent smartphone sales and seven year old Tablet PC sales data. Fantastic logical deduction using facts, sir.

    In tech speak, comparing 2003 technology sales on tablets (before markets expanded with multi-touch and iPhones and Android and Palm Pre, etc, etc) data to today is like running VCR sales in the 2000s against iPad pre-orders. It's a bit of an unjust assessment.

    I mean, in semi-seriousness, how many units of the Nintendo Wii have they pushed out to customers..?! Let's compare low-powered user appliances with different user interfaces, shall we?

    I mean, best comparison is to compare Day 1 sales of various iPhones and iPod Touches. Apple wants to dominate the WORLD.. I guess 120,000 supposedly is a good start :p. Has it occurred to anyone that Apple might dick with their order numbers in order to have people presume that they're selling like hotcakes in order to generate demand... instead of bold faced lying (or telling the truth) themselves???
     
  11. Gen macrumors 6502a

    Gen

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    #11
    Assuming they are somewhat right;
    Estimated average cost is $664, roughly. Simple math says Apple cleared a cool $79,680,000 in pre-orders alone.
    Roughly.

    This isn't accurate though, I didn't take into account the 2-1 ratio Wifi pulled over 3G, nor the percentage break-down of models sold.
    Like I said, rough.
     
  12. goobot macrumors 603

    goobot

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    #12
    this is incorrect!!! mmm doesnt apple also sell accessories and other products that have order #S????!!!!
     
  13. thejakill macrumors 6502

    thejakill

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    #13
    These are preorders, too. You can't even just walk into a store and buy one on a whim yet. When actual ipads hit the stores it's going to blow HUGE.
     
  14. Gold89 macrumors 6502

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    #14
    Apple manipulate stories and figures? No way.
     
  15. admanimal macrumors 68040

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    #15
    Yes, and he specifically says that this is taken into account. Basically on a normal day he tracks what the sequence of order numbers looks like. Let's say he estimates an average of 15,000 orders on a normal day. This means that on Friday he actually estimated 135,000 orders were placed, and given that there is no reason why people would start ordering tons of random Apple products on Friday, he is assuming this extra volume is due to iPad sales. iPad accessories don't necessarily add to his totals either, since in most cases they are going to be part of the same order # as the iPad itself.

    I'm not saying I think these numbers are totally accurate, but the guy seems to think they have been a good estimate in the past.
     
  16. minik macrumors 65816

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    #16
    If the numbers are right, it's going to be huge for a product that 99.9% of people haven't touched or seen in real life.

    I did reserve mine tho.
     
  17. gwynne macrumors 68000

    gwynne

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    #17
    QFT.

    Then again, this is why there are a million "reality" shows and crime procedurals, and shows like Firefly get cancelled.
     
  18. mrgreen4242 macrumors 601

    mrgreen4242

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    #18
    No, the sampling methodology has little to do with that. They're pretty accurate, though they only measure people who actually watch TV live (although they've started to track DVR viewers now, but aren't doing much with online viewership of any sort at this point). Shows stay on/get canceled based on profitability. Reality shows draw a broad audience and cost little to produce. Shows like Firefly have a limited draw and are expensive (very involved set, location shoot, large acting cast, writers, etc). It's just a sad fact of the lowest-common-denominator model TV uses.

    I'm hoping these strong sale figures gets developers crackin' on having osme new apps in the store on launch day! I want more than just pixel doubled iPhone apps... :p
     
  19. flyguy206 macrumors 6502a

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    #19
    this is crazy and people have not even see the ipad in person that is crazy
     
  20. JimmyTheKnife macrumors member

    JimmyTheKnife

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    #20
    But it is a grand sort of madness!! :p
     
  21. wyneken macrumors regular

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    #21
    Indeed! And one from which I, for better or worse, seem to suffer.

    I haven't bought an Apple product on Day 1 since the original Macintosh in 1984. I agree that it's kind of crazy, or at least irrational, but it in my case, at least, it's a selective kind of craziness.
     

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