Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2012

[Doctor Q]

This is the 18th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:

2003: July
2004: January, July
2005: January, July
2006: January, July
2007: January, July
2008: January, July
2009: January, July
2010: January, July
2011: January, July​

The legend of column headings follows each chart. Measurements were taken yesterday (January 3rd).

These charts and this thread are for general interest only, not to encourage posting to build post counts.


Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2012

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
 1    mad jew         32,206   0.0    1      0
 2    Doctor Q        30,187   6.8    2      0
 3    mkrishnan       29,603   3.6    3      0
 4    jessica.        28,119   8.1    5     +1
 5    Eidorian        27,546   4.3    4     -1
 6    rdowns          24,664   7.1    6      0
 7    Abstract        23,688   2.0    7      0
 8    GGJstudios      23,266  25.9   18    +10
 9    Mr. Anderson    22,550   0.0    8     -1
10    robbieduncan    22,465   5.4   11     +1
11    jsw             22,134   0.0    9     -2
12    Blue Velvet     21,810   0.3   10     -2
13    Hellhammer      20,782   9.4   15     +2
14    bartelby        19,744   0.1   12     -2
15    iGary           19,583   0.2   13     -2
16    Applejuiced     19,371  13.8   22     +6
17    edesignuk       19,259   0.0   14     -3
18    iBlue           18,988   2.0   17     -1
19    PlaceofDis      18,824   0.9   16     -3
20    Dagless         18,819   3.0   20      0
21    ~Shard~         18,288   0.0   19     -2
22    Jaffa Cake      17,617   5.3   23     +1
23    DoFoT9          17,042   0.6   21     -2
24    wdlove          16,571   0.0   24      0
25    yellow          16,004   0.0   25      0

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
26    MacNut          15,926   2.1   28     +2
27    alphaod         15,924   3.3   30     +3
28    miles01110      15,689  13.5   40    +12
29    devilot         15,591   0.0   27     -2
30    sushi           15,581   0.9   29     -1
31    WildCowboy      15,360   0.4   31      0
32    -aggie-         15,308   0.0   26     -6
33    MacDawg         15,051   6.4   35     +2
34    iJohnHenry      14,985   7.2   37     +3
35    dukebound85     14,916   3.3   33     -2
36    Sun Baked       14,663   0.0   32     -4
37    Nermal          14,275   2.6   36     -1
38    bousozoku       13,998   0.0   34     -4
39    twoodcc         13,808   1.3   38     -1
40    Mitthrawnuruodo 13,557   0.1   39     -1
41    leekohler       13,483   3.4   41      0
42    Surely          13,367   8.8   47     +5
43    r.j.s           13,039   6.8   46     +3
44    balamw          12,640   5.6   49     +5
45    xUKHCx          12,588   1.3   42     -3
46    maflynn         12,511  12.9  ---    ---
47    CanadaRAM       12,355   0.0   43     -4
48    Peace           12,289   6.9  ---    ---
49    IJ Reilly       12,268   0.0   44     -5
50    yg17            12,131   3.2   50      0

Columns:

1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
   
3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership if they joined less than 6 months ago.
   
5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (July 2011), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
   
6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

Other charts and graphs:

• Years of membership (the next post)
• Increase (or decrease) in Rank
• 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters (Chart #2)
• Current Rank and Projected Rank
• "End of Time" Top 50 Posters (Chart #3)
• Ten Year Projections
• Distribution of active posters (by GGJstudios)
• Top 10 wireless mobile posters (by SandboxGeneral)
• Percentage of users by post count
• Percentage of users by rank
• Most consistent users by post count
• arn's posting rate

 

[Doctor Q]

A picture is worth a thousand words, so this time I'm using more graphs in place of prose.

Let's start with the number of years that our Top 50 forum members have been at MacRumors. Two members have now been here for a decade or longer!

Years of Membership

click for the full-size graph

​

 

[Doctor Q]

This graph shows how user ranks among the Top 50 have increased or decreased in the last 6 months.

There are only 48 users in the graph: maflynn and Peace are not included because they are new to the Top 50. They replaced eyelikeart and Queso, who have dropped out of the Top 50.

Increase (or decrease) in Rank

click for full-size graph

​

 

[Abstract]

Wow, I've been here for 9 years. It looks like robbieduncan, Q, and I are the oldest active members on the lists above, although this is not an indication of quality.



Ok, who is Applejuiced, and how did this person get to be ranked #16 without me noticing at all????? Did this person change their name or something?


EDIT: Nope. I just checked a previous list using their previous ranking, and kept on doing so 3 or 4 times, and it turns out that Applejuiced has been here awhile, and I'm not that observant.

 

[bartelby]

Ok, who is Applejuiced, and how did this person get to be ranked #16 without me noticing at all????? Did this person change their name or something?

EDIT: Nope. I just checked a previous list using their previous ranking, and kept on doing so 3 or 4 times, and it turns out that Applejuiced has been here awhile, and I'm not that observant.

You're not the only one who's not observant...

I can't believe I'm still in the top 20, let alone the top 50!!

 

[stridemat]

Is it that time of the year already. Doesn't time fly. Keep them stats coming Q.

 

[miles01110]

Ok, who is Applejuiced, and how did this person get to be ranked #16 without me noticing at all????? Did this person change their name or something?


EDIT: Nope. I just checked a previous list using their previous ranking, and kept on doing so 3 or 4 times, and it turns out that Applejuiced has been here awhile, and I'm not that observant.

You're not alone... I was confused when I clicked on his profile one day and saw that he had 19,000+ posts. Maybe it was an avatar change I didn't recognize that caused me to notice.

 

[dukebound85]

You're not alone... I was confused when I clicked on his profile one day and saw that he had 19,000+ posts. Maybe it was an avatar change I didn't recognize that caused me to notice.

him and GGJ just shot up the rankings.....one always replying about iphone hacks, and the other about batteries and search links lol

I myself have been here 6.5 years. Dang

 

[miles01110]

him and GGJ just shot up the rankings.....one always replying about iphone hacks, and the other about batteries and search links lol

Don't forget the knee-jerk "Macs do NOT get viruses."

 

[Doctor Q]

6-Month Projections

Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January 2012

Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul 4, 2012     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
  1   mad jew         32,206    1      0
  2   Doctor Q        31,424    2      0
  3   mkrishnan       30,264    3      0
  4   jessica.        29,601    4      0
  5   Eidorian        28,335    5      0
  6   GGJstudios      28,010    8     +2
  7   rdowns          25,963    6     -1
  8   Abstract        24,061    7     -1
  9   robbieduncan    23,457   10     +1
 10   Mr. Anderson    22,550    9     -1
 11   Hellhammer      22,510   13     +2
 12   jsw             22,136   11     -1
 13   Applejuiced     21,905   16     +3
 14   Blue Velvet     21,864   12     -2
 15   bartelby        19,768   14     -1
 16   iGary           19,613   15     -1
 17   Dagless         19,364   20     +3
 18   iBlue           19,361   18      0
 19   edesignuk       19,266   17     -2
 20   PlaceofDis      18,992   19     -1
 21   Jaffa Cake      18,588   22     +1
 22   ~Shard~         18,288   21     -1
 23   miles01110      18,159   28     +5
 24   DoFoT9          17,147   23     -1
 25   wdlove          16,571   24     -1

Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jan 4, 2012     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
 26   alphaod         16,531   27     +1
 27   MacNut          16,302   26     -1
 28   iJohnHenry      16,298   34     +6
 29   MacDawg         16,228   33     +4
 30   yellow          16,005   25     -5
 31   sushi           15,741   30     -1
 32   devilot         15,590   29     -3
 33   dukebound85     15,511   35     +2
 34   WildCowboy      15,438   31     -3
 35   -aggie-         15,016   32     -3
 36   Surely          14,983   42     +6
 37   maflynn         14,879   46     +9
 38   Nermal          14,749   37     -1
 39   Sun Baked       14,664   36     -3
 40   r.j.s           14,276   43     +3
 41   leekohler       14,107   41      0
 42   twoodcc         14,046   39     -3
 43   bousozoku       13,998   38     -5
 44   balamw          13,662   44      0
 45   Mitthrawnuruodo 13,583   40     -5
 46   xUKHCx          12,822   45     -1
 47   yg17            12,719   50     +3
 48   simsaladimbamba 12,679  ---    ---
 49   *LTD*           12,666  ---    ---
 50   KnightWRX       12,635  ---    ---

Columns:

1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Projection Jul 4, 2012 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
   
3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2012 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
   
5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.

 

[Doctor Q]

Here is a graphical representation of the projected changes in rank over the next 6 months. Members simsaladimbamba and *LTD* and KnightWRX are not included because they are new to the Top 50. They are projected to displace CanadaRAM and Peace and IJ Reilly.

Current Rank and Projected Rank

click for full-size graph

​

 

[Jaffa Cake]

I seem to be perpetually hovering just outside the top 20. This is okay though, as it means you all know where to find me should I be needed.

 

[Chundles]

Coming ta get ya!

 

[rowley]

Graphs. That is all.

 

[GGJstudios]

..... and the other about batteries and search links

... and questions about AppleCare, RAM, keyboard shortcuts, performance tips, hard drive selection, disk formatting, restoring folders to the Dock, missing drive space, app recommendations, uninstalling apps, iTunes tagging, ad-blockers, Flash issues, picture editing, sleep issues, refurb serial numbers, file naming, heat issues, screen sharing, posting URLS, maintenance apps, Gmail/Mail setup, SMS, Spotlight indexing, trash issues, running Windows apps, changing icons, firewall, backup methods, ....

Don't forget the knee-jerk "Macs do NOT get viruses."

... yes, and answering questions about malware, boot times, notebook sleeves, DNS problems, hackers, MS Office, pricing questions, repairing permissions, movie library management, Dropbox, muting startup sound, migration procedures, ....

I don't create the questions. I just answer them, even if the same questions are asked repeatedly.

And that's just a brief sampling from the last few days. If you think my posts are all about batteries or viruses, you haven't been paying attention.

 

[rdowns]

Don't forget the knee-jerk "Macs do NOT get viruses."

simsaladimbamba posts GG's virus post several times a day.

 

[rhett7660]

And to still think a person who hasn't been here for a while is still sitting at the top.....

 

[iJohnHenry]

Up six more places?? I'm winded just thinking about it. <--(=out of air)

This is too much like a Critical Path chart, and I hated those.

 

[Doctor Q]

"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2012

Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------- --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
  1   GGJstudios        25.53     8     +7     2     +1
  2   simsaladimbamba   22.57   ---    ---     1     -1
  3   Applejuiced       17.45    16    +13     4     +1
  4   Hellhammer        16.29    13     +9     3     -1
  5   maflynn           13.29    46    +41     7     +2
  6   KnightWRX         11.88   ---    ---    17    +11
  7   *LTD*             11.71   ---    ---    15     +8
  8   miles01110        11.62    28    +20    11     +3
  9   jessica.          10.88     4     -5     6     -3
 10   Surely            10.18    42    +32     9     -1
 11   rdowns             9.39     6     -5     8     -3
 12   MacDawg            8.16    33    +21    10     -2
 13   balamw             7.55    44    +31    12     -1
 14   robbieduncan       7.40    10     -4    13     -1
 15   iJohnHenry         7.28    34    +19    20     +5
 16   Doctor Q           7.05     2    -14    21     +5
 17   samcraig           6.87   ---    ---    23     +6
 18   Consultant         6.03   ---    ---    18      0
 19   AidenShaw          5.82   ---    ---    33    +14
 20   r.j.s              5.77    43    +23    38    +18
 21   Rodimus Prime      5.72   ---    ---    45    +24
 22   nanofrog           5.56   ---    ---    22      0
 23   jav6454            5.28   ---    ---    16     -7
 24   Eidorian           5.28     5    -19    24      0
 25   kdarling           5.03   ---    ---    40    +15

Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------- --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
 26   DoFoT9             4.97    23     -3    14    -12
 27   Jaffa Cake         4.95    22     -5    42    +15
 28   stridemat          4.86   ---    ---    43    +15
 29   appleguy123        4.48   ---    ---    25     -4
 30   dukebound85        4.41    35     +5    28     -2
 31   alphaod            4.29    27     -4    31      0
 32   yg17               4.26    50    +18    30     -2
 33   leekohler          4.26    41     +8    35     +2
 34   gnasher729         4.21   ---    ---   ---    ---
 35   thelatinist        4.13   ---    ---    19    -16
 36   Small White Car    4.09   ---    ---   ---    ---
 37   dejo               4.07   ---    ---    29     -8
 38   SchneiderMan       3.94   ---    ---    27    -11
 39   QuarterSwede       3.74   ---    ---   ---    ---
 40   ucfgrad93          3.73   ---    ---    34     -6
 41   OllyW              3.71   ---    ---   ---    ---
 42   dmr727             3.66   ---    ---    39     -3
 43   cmaier             3.53   ---    ---    32    -11
 44   TwinCities Dan     3.53   ---    ---    46     +2
 45   Dagless            3.45    20    -25    49     +4
 46   rhett7660          3.43   ---    ---   ---    ---
 47   dhlizard           3.27   ---    ---    26    -21
 48   darngooddesign     3.23   ---    ---   ---    ---
 49   MisterMe           3.19   ---    ---   ---    ---
 50   daneoni            3.18   ---    ---    50      0

Columns:

1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
   
3. Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006.
   
4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2012, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
   
5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
   
6. Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (July 2011, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
   
7. Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.

 

[Doctor Q]

The end-of-time rankings six months ago were topped by simsaladimbamba, GGJstudios, Hellhammer, and Applejuiced, in that order. This time #1 and #2 have traded positions and #3 and #4 have traded positions.

Let's see where the weighted post rates take us over the next 10 years.

Be sure to check back on March 27, 2020, when GGJstudios will be the first MacRumors member to reach 100,000 posts!

Ten Year Projections

click for the full-size graph

​

 

[GGJstudios]

simsaladimbamba posts GG's virus post several times a day.

Questions get asked about malware several times a day.

 

[stridemat]

Be sure to check back on March 27, 2020, when GGJstudios will be the first MacRumors member to reach 100,000 posts!

Talking about lots of posts, anyone know how this user on MacRumors sister's site managed to obtain so many post? It's something that has been puzzling me for a while now.

 

[GGJstudios]

Talking about lots of posts, anyone know how this user on MacRumors sister's site managed to obtain so many post? It's something that has been puzzling me for a while now.

I'm guessing a bug in their forum software. I seriously doubt someone can maintain a 120 post/day rate for 29 years, especially since the site is only 4 1/2 years old, vBulletin software is only 11 years old, and even the internet wasn't as widely available in 1983!

 

[mobilehaathi]

Interesting. I'd be curious to see the distribution of all active posters across post count. You could do this with equal sized bins and with bins based on forum title requirements.

 

[~Shard~]

Wow, surprising to see I'm still in the Top 25 - up until Steve's death (RIP) I hadn't posted here for a few years! Good to see both old and new faces on the site, that helps keep things interesting. I'll try to pop back on MacRumors from time to time, cheers for now...