I ultimately decided that since I was planning to keep my 2014 MBP to run 32-bit apps and would therefore replace the battery in it anyway, to see if it was still useable after the battery replacement. I bought a third party battery and swapped it myself. My initial hesitation to doing this was that if I messed up I would have no computer, and iFixIt's guide is a very risky complete disassembly of the entire computer. However, if you look at the comments there is a very simple and quick alternative way to do a battery replacement that makes it a lot less risky.
So for now I'm still using my old '14 MBP, but I know I'm on borrowed time with it. I'm waiting to see what happens when they launch M3, because I wasn't completely sold on the 15" Air or the 16" Pro, and I am no longer being forced to decide immediately by the battery issue.
I spent over an hour in an Apple Store comparing the 15" m2 Air and the 16" MBP side by side, the 14" MBP is too small for me. I like having more screen space. Both have more than enough performance, and I don't render enough for the Pro's speed in that area to be a deciding factor.
I really like the size and weight of the Air, and it is surprisingly sturdy for how large and thin it is. But the screen is very similar in size and quality to my current MBP, so other than performance the screen doesn't feel like much of an upgrade. The 16" MBP would be an upgrade in terms of screen size and screen quality, and I like having the ports. Weight isn't a huge factory, but I do like the lightness of the Air.
The 16" MBP is too expensive for what I actually need from a computer right now, but I also feel like it is a more future proof purchase. The 15" Air spec'ed to 16GB/1TB is too close in price to the 14" MBP, especially when you include purchasing a dongle for HDMI and SD cards. I said the 14" MBP is too small for me, but considering the price vs a spec'ed up 15" Air, it's hard to ignore the 14" Pro.
I am definately leaning toward the Air, but I'm hoping when they launch M3 the 15" Air gets a base spec bump so the price is more differentiated from the 14" Pro.
One interesting thing I noticed is that I preferred the smaller trackpad on the Air because my palm was not resting directly on the trackpad like with the Pro, but both trackpads are almost too big.