15" MacBook in 2023

[DHagan4755]

By all reports we’re getting a 15” MacBook in 2023. If Apple does nothing more than release a larger version of the 13” M2 MacBook Air — great! But there are a few curious things that make me doubt it will be a 15” MacBook Air. So hear me out.

When Apple debuted M2 at WWDC, they put it in the MacBook Air with the new design & in the old design of the 13” MacBook Pro. Yet they didn’t update the Mac mini to M2. Why?

Rumors of a new Mac mini design were quashed so it couldn’t be a new design holding the mini up.

There’s been talk about the Mac mini getting both an M2 for the low-end & a M2 Pro for the high-end, finally putting that Intel model out to pasture. It was obvious when the M2 came out that the M2 Pro/Max was coming later so the rumor about the Mac mini having M2 & M2 Pro kind of made sense — debut them both simultaneously.

However the plot thickens. It’s 2023. We still don’t have the M2 Pro/Max, like we thought we would by now. We’re getting hints that the M2 Pro/Max could be 3nm SoCs instead of 5nm like the M2. Apparently TSMC began 3nm production just a few days ago.

Here’s where it gets interesting. The rumors about the 15” MacBook have consistently said it would launch in 2023. Apple probably knew all along M2 Pro/Max chips wouldn’t be ready until 2023 so they planned that all along for the 15” MacBook.

There are rumors that the 15” MacBook will have the option of an M2 Pro — a peculiar option for a MacBook Air. We know that the M2 Pro is going to need active cooling. So it would make sense that the 15” MacBook has been designed around active cooling. This means it's probably not as thin as the 13.6" Air & is waiting for the M2 Pro chips for its unveiling.

It makes me wonder about the timing of a 15” MacBook Air. It made sense for Apple to have debuted the new 13” & 15” MacBook Air together last June, like they did in 2021 for the 14” & 16” MacBook Pros. That still could happen, however…

Last week came a rumor via display analyst Ross Young that the 15” MacBook will have a 15.5” screen. That’s curious. The previous 15” MacBook Pro was 15.4”. It makes me think Apple doesn't want a 15" MacBook any larger than the footprint of the previous 15" MacBook Pro. That probably also means that the bezel around the screen will be as thin as the 14” & 16” MacBook Pros & not thicker like on the new 13.6” Air.

So could it be that what we’re looking at here is a 15.5” MacBook Pro & NOT a 15” MacBook Air.

Think about it. You want a MacBook with a larger screen but don’t need all of that horsepower & also don’t want to pay $2,500 for the 16” model. That Pro branding has upsell all over it.

Apple will offer a 15.5” MacBook Pro with an M2, sans mini LED, ProMotion, HDMI, and an SD card slot to keep costs down. It will be thicker than the MacBook Air but thinner than the 14 & 16” MacBook Pros. It won’t throttle under load like the MacBook Air does because it’s actively cooled — and that’s the differentiator on MacBooks between Air & Pro — active cooling.

When Apple introduces new 14” & 16” MacBook Pro models at a spring event, they will say:

“And today we’re also introducing a new MacBook Pro to the family & here’s a look…”

[Splashy product montage reveal]

“Here’s our new brand new 15” MacBook Pro. Designed for our professional customers who need the larger display but don’t require all the performance of our 14” & 16” MacBook Pros.

“We’ve got the same Liquid Retina display technology wrapped around a gorgeous 15.5” screen, a 1080p FaceTime webcam, amazing speakers for a true immersive sound stage, plus incredible 18 hour all-day battery life. All coming in a package that weighs just 4 pounds.”

So the pricing would be something like this:

15.5” MacBook Pro with M2
8GB of RAM
256GB SSD (perhaps this will be 2 NANDs this time, and this was a planned differentiator in performance?)
$1,699.

8GB of RAM
512GB GB SSD
$1,899

M2 Pro
16GB of RAM
512GB SSD
$2,199

In typical Apple fashion they pit you against the value proposition. You need the HDMI, SD card reader, and/or want mini LED with Pro Motion? You buy the 16” model instead for just a little more $$$. Apple will discontinue the 13" MacBook Pro altogether — it was a stop gap until this point (that's why they put a label for the M2 over the M1 on the box).

It would be nice if Apple kept it really simple though & just released a larger version of the 13.6" M2 MacBook Air. Maybe they will & my thoughts are all for naught. But it seems this type of "bridge model" is something Apple would do.

 

[DHagan4755]

I failed to mention that I think the 15" MacBook — whatever it ends up being — will probably be Apple's most popular Mac this year.

 

[nick42983]

I can't imagine Apple releasing this device in the middle of their Pro lineup without all those features that are hallmarks of the newer Pros. The 13" has been an outlier, but Apple obviously has a reason for keeping it around, since there is demand for an actively-cooled ultra-portable MacBook. If Apple does release a 15" MacBook it'll be an Air, maybe with a feature or two more like a better display and an extra USB-C port. People have complained about Apple having confusing lineups for years, a 15" "Pro" that isn't really a Pro within an inch or less in screen size of two other real Pros would add to this and undermine their Pro lineup. I don't think it will be actively cooled either (the larger size will help somewhat with heat) so I don't see an M2 Pro in this machine. Adding a step-up option to the Air line makes more sense to me.

 

[maflynn]

By all reports we’re getting a 15” MacBook in 2023

"All reports" are saying a MBA, not MBP. You posted this in the MBP forum

 

[DHagan4755]

"All reports" are saying a MBA, not MBP. You posted this in the MBP forum

I debated where to put it. Maybe Apple silicon forum would be best because it's neutral?

 

[maflynn]

I debated where to put it. Maybe Apple silicon forum would be best because it's neutral?

I just notified the mods to see if it makes sense to move it. They don't seem to be around too much in the morning, but you may see this thread end up in that forum in a while

 

[DHagan4755]

I can't imagine Apple releasing this device in the middle of their Pro lineup without all those features that are hallmarks of the newer Pros. The 13" has been an outlier, but Apple obviously has a reason for keeping it around, since there is demand for an actively-cooled ultra-portable MacBook. If Apple does release a 15" MacBook it'll be an Air, maybe with a feature or two more like a better display and an extra USB-C port. People have complained about Apple having confusing lineups for years, a 15" "Pro" that isn't really a Pro within an inch or less in screen size of two other real Pros would add to this and undermine their Pro lineup. I don't think it will be actively cooled either (the larger size will help somewhat with heat) so I don't see an M2 Pro in this machine. Adding a step-up option to the Air line makes more sense to me.

Heck it could be a MacBook Studio? Hopefully I'm wrong!

 

[DHagan4755]

I just notified the mods to see if it makes sense to move it. They don't seem to be around too much in the morning, but you may see this thread end up in that forum in a while

No worries. It's a devil's advocate type of thread. Since my post is that it could be a pro that's why it landed here.

 

[MBAir2010]

Pro or Air forum I don't see  making a large screen MacBook Air that is 15"
that would defeat the "air" ness in the product, no matter how light.

 

[DHagan4755]

Pro or Air forum I don't see  making a large screen MacBook Air that is 15"
that would defeat the "air" ness in the product, no matter how light.

That's another factor. In its 14 year lifespan, the MacBook Air has never had a larger than 13" screen. Doesn't mean that it can't happen. But it's another strike against it happening.

Anecdotally, the people in my universe who had a 15" MacBook Pro and needed replace them, all got the 13" MacBook Air or Pro. They found the 15" MacBook Pro either too big or too expensive. Those that longed for the 15" didn't want to spend north of $2k for another one.

 

[pshufd]

I expect a 15 inch MacBook Air. The Air is the biggest seller and I think that customers probably like that line and the branding. They should have a bit more thermal headroom in it. I may get one myself for those times when I'm out and about but don't need my 16. This will really annoy Dell, etc. because they've had the market without having to compete against Apple Silicon.

On the mini vs Studio - I bought the mini and tried to get it to do the work of a Studio and I couldn't. So I bought a Studio and am very happy with it. If you're agonizing over the decision, just get the Studio.

I came from the MacBook Pro 17 so the 15 was a bit of a downgrade in size. The 16 is getting back there but there's no way that I'd use the 13. I had a work-issue 13 and I bought a used 15 and used that for work instead of my work-issue laptop.

 

[pshufd]

Heck it could be a MacBook Studio? Hopefully I'm wrong!

I'd go for that at 17 or 18 inches. I use my Swissgear Carbon backpack and it was designed for the 2008 MacBook Pro 17. My 2021 MacBook Pro 16 swims in the laptop compartment. The 2021 has all of the performance that I need but I'd love a larger screen. It would be useless on an airplane but I don't do much air travel these days.

 

[VivienM]

That's another factor. In its 14 year lifespan, the MacBook Air has never had a larger than 13" screen. Doesn't mean that it can't happen. But it's another strike against it happening.

Anecdotally, the people in my universe who had a 15" MacBook Pro and needed replace them, all got the 13" MacBook Air or Pro. They found the 15" MacBook Pro either too big or too expensive. Those that longed for the 15" didn't want to spend north of $2k for another one.

Well, look at the iPhone 14 Plus - ever since they launched two sizes of iPhones, the biggest screen was always the highest-end model only. You wanted the biggest screen, you had to get the best most-powerful iPhone. Which mirrored the strategy used in the Intel MBP - if you wanted the big screen, you got (and paid for) the high-end MBP with the quad-core CPU, discrete graphics, etc - if your needs/budget were less, well, hope you enjoy your 13.3" MBP. (My mom was in the same boat as the people in your universe - had the weird late-2013 15" without the discrete graphics that they later discontinued and increased the starting price $500, then when its SSD died, she got a 13.3" 4-Thunderbolt-port model... would probably have preferred the 16" but the price difference was just too much)

The 14 Plus was the first exception to this 'big screen must mean high-end internals' rule. More such exceptions may be coming.

My own view is that there is a market for both the 14 Plus and a 15" MacBook Air (i.e. large-screened devices without high-end internals and the corresponding price tag), but the problem is that the people who want those are not going to be the type of people who rush out to buy it on launch week (or year). They have whatever devices they have now, their performance needs are not huge, but when they will need a new device, they might prefer an affordable big-screened model to a smaller-screened model. My mom would be the perfect buyer for a 15" Air, but she's not going to replace her 2020 i5 4-Thunderbolt 13.3" until, probably, Apple drops macOS updates for that model especially if Apple will sell her monthly AppleCare at the end of her 3-year AppleCare. So... 2025-2026? And my parents would probably love to replace their XRs with a 15 Plus...or a 16 Plus. The question is whether Apple is willing to tolerate mediocre sales for the first year or two to keep that option around.

 

[darngooddesign]

My opinion

It will be a 15" version of the M2 Air; so same ports and style with a larger battery and better speakers. The 3nm chip will be called the M3. It will have a regular M2 or M3 chip, not an M2-Pro due to thermal constraints. Just like how there was no binned 16" MBP, the 15" Air will start with the 8/10 8GB/512GB config not the binned 8/8 8/256. Price will be $150-$200 more than the 8/10 8/512 13" Air.

 

[DHagan4755]

(My mom was in the same boat as the people in your universe - had the weird late-2013 15" without the discrete graphics that they later discontinued and increased the starting price $500, then when its SSD died, she got a 13.3" 4-Thunderbolt-port model... would probably have preferred the 16" but the price difference was just too much)

My parents are my latest example. Last October they both got Covid and had no idea how to Telehealth. When installing Zoom on their late 2013 15" MBP, the trackpad barely worked. It would wobble on the table. The battery was swelling. After getting them through the zoom meetings I told them the computer was a fire hazard & needed to go. I went onto Amazon & ordered them an M1 MacBook Air because they were $799. My mom loves it but for awhile dad lamented the loss of screen real estate so much so that she looked for old 15" MacBook Pros for sale. I told her to hold her horses because a new 15" MacBook was coming in the spring. Meanwhile my dad seems to have acclimated to the 13" so things might be all set now. Now I'm tempted to buy another 13".

 

[DHagan4755]

My opinion

It will be a 15" version of the M2 Air; so same ports and style with a larger battery and better speakers. The 3nm chip will be called the M3. It will have a regular M2 or M3 chip, not an M2-Pro due to thermal constraints. It will start with the 8/10 8GB/512GB config not the 8/8 8/256.

Ideally it would come at the same base specs as the 13" so it can be competitively priced. We're at a point now where 512 GB should be the starting point but that's a whole other discussion. As per my previous post, my parents as an example, they don't need more than 256GB of storage

 

[darngooddesign]

Ideally it would come at the same base specs as the 13" so it can be competitively priced. We're at a point now where 512 GB should be the starting point but that's a whole other discussion. As per my previous post, my parents as an example, they don't need more than 256GB of storage

Ideally you would be able to get a 15" 8/8 8/256, but not if Apple follows what they did with the 16" MBP.

 

[darngooddesign]

Apple has a long history of (like the 12" and 14" iBooks) not offering the larger laptop in the equivalent smaller base laptop config.

 

[DHagan4755]

The best possible outcome would be if Apple discontinues the MacBook Air M1, drops the price of the MacBook M2 to $999 & introduces a 15" MacBook Air above that price bracket, much like they do with everything else.

The problem as I detailed above is that if the 15" MacBook was going to be an Air, it should be out already with M2. So it's either going to be a MacBook Pro or it's going to be a 15" MacBook Air & come next fall with an M3 version of the 13" MacBook Air — another possibility.

 

[DHagan4755]

The case for a 15" MacBook Air is a fall 2023 launch with M3.

 

[darngooddesign]

The best possible outcome would be if Apple discontinues the MacBook Air M1, drops the price of the MacBook M2 to $999 & introduces a 15" MacBook Air above that price bracket, much like they do with everything else.

The problem as I detailed above is that if the 15" MacBook was going to be an Air, it should be out already with M2. So it's either going to be a MacBook Pro or it's going to be a 15" MacBook Air & come next fall with an M3 version of the 13" MacBook Air — another possibility.

It's going to be a 15" Air and it will launch with whatever chip the 13" has, whenever that happens. Of course it makes no sense for the Pros to be two chip generations behind the Airs so we are going to get the M3 Airs and M3 Pros launching around the same time. Because the M2 Air was upgraded after the M1 Pros, the M3 Pros will launch in fall and the M3 Airs in winter or spring.

 

[darngooddesign]

15" MacBook Air Pro Max 🤣

 

[VivienM]

The problem as I detailed above is that if the 15" MacBook was going to be an Air, it should be out already with M2.

Not necessarily - I think there is some history of Apple, probably rather deliberately, NOT launching multiple sizes of the same product at the same time. e.g. the retina 15" came out a while before the retina 13", the iMac G4 launched as a 15" only, then 17" and 20" later, the retina iMac launched only as a 27", etc. Trying to remember if 13/15/17" unibodies launched at the same time.

The other thing worth noting is that the 15" Air would clearly be using some new size/resolution LCD panel with a notch, just like the 13" M2. Maybe their supplier would rather ramp up production of the 13" first, then move to launching a 15".

I do come back to the 14 Plus situation, though - if the 14 Plus is seen as a flop, given the 15" MBA would basically be the same kind of product for the same kind of customers, would that make them abandon the 15" MBA?

The other thing - could they reintroduce a plain-vanilla "MacBook"?

 

[darngooddesign]

Not necessarily - I think there is some history of Apple, probably rather deliberately, NOT launching multiple sizes of the same product at the same time. e.g. the retina 15" came out a while before the retina 13", the iMac G4 launched as a 15" only, then 17" and 20" later, the retina iMac launched only as a 27", etc. Trying to remember if 13/15/17" unibodies launched at the same time.

On the other hand, the 14" and 16" MBPs launched at the same time.

MacTracker says that the 13" and 15" Unibodies launched at the same time, but the 13" and 15" Retina Unibodies did not.

The lampshade iMacs might have launched with a single size, but after that it was common for updates to come in more than one size.

I hope Apple is smart enough to wait with the 15" so an M3 13" Air isn't released less than a year after the M2 15" Air.

 

[DHagan4755]

Not necessarily - I think there is some history of Apple, probably rather deliberately, NOT launching multiple sizes of the same product at the same time. e.g. the retina 15" came out a while before the retina 13", the iMac G4 launched as a 15" only, then 17" and 20" later, the retina iMac launched only as a 27", etc. Trying to remember if 13/15/17" unibodies launched at the same time.

The other thing worth noting is that the 15" Air would clearly be using some new size/resolution LCD panel with a notch, just like the 13" M2. Maybe their supplier would rather ramp up production of the 13" first, then move to launching a 15".

I do come back to the 14 Plus situation, though - if the 14 Plus is seen as a flop, given the 15" MBA would basically be the same kind of product for the same kind of customers, would that make them abandon the 15" MBA?

The other thing - could they reintroduce a plain-vanilla "MacBook"?

I definitely hear what you're saying. It's not unknown for Apple to split releases but it's not common. And it's totally possible this is just a "MacBook."