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I have the same dilemma as the OP, I'm planning to upgrade from iPhone 12 128gb to iPhone 16 Pro, but should I stick with 128gb or increase to 256gb? After 4 years, I only use 86gb, so I thought maybe 128gb is enough, but when I read your post, hey we have the same thinking. Maybe when I have the 16 Pro, I should start taking more photos and videos, why buy 16 Pro if you're not using the using the camera function isn't it? I might just add extra $100 and go for 256gb. Better have it but don't need then need it but don't have it.
Exactly what happened to me.

Love my 256GB 16 Pro.

Started taking more photos and playing with 4K 120Hz video...
 
256. I only have ten gigs left on my 15p. Apparently it’s mostly apps, but I don’t even use many. All of my photos are on iCloud. 128 is easy to fill
 
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I opted for 256 gb, but that 512 gb temptation was real until I saw the $200 price tag - talk about a buzzkill. For that price, I can snag a portable external SSD with way more storage, like 1-2 tb, for a fraction of the cost, around $100-150. Those tiny external SSDs are great. I'm already paying $3 monthly for 200 gb of iCloud and scoring 100gb of Google cloud storage free with Google Fi wireless. Travel photography and YouTube, FB, Instagram uploads are my phone's main gig, so 256 gb it is.
 
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I opted for 256 gb, but that 512 gb temptation was real until I saw the $200 price tag - talk about a buzzkill. For that price, I can snag a portable external SSD with way more storage, like 1-2 tb, for a fraction of the cost, around $100-150. Those tiny external SSDs are great. I'm already paying $3 monthly for 200 gb of iCloud and scoring 100gb of Google cloud storage free with Google Fi wireless. Travel photography and YouTube, FB, Instagram uploads are my phone's main gig, so 256 gb it is.
Right ?
That $200 jump for another 256GB was what prevented me.
 
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