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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2013

Doctor Q

Doctor Q

Administrator
Original poster
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
40,553
9,732
Los Angeles
This is the 21st edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:
2003: July
2004: January, July
2005: January, July
2006: January, July
2007: January, July
2008: January, July
2009: January, July
2010: January, July
2011: January, July
2012: January, July
2013: January
​

The legend of column headings follows each chart. Measurements were taken yesterday (July 3rd).

This thread is for general interest and discussion of posting habits. As you might guess, it's not an excuse to build your post count inappropriately.


Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July 2013

Code: 
                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
 1    GGJstudios      38,509  13.3    1      0
 2    GoCubsGo        32,939   6.6    3     +1
 3    mad jew         32,194   0.0    2     -1
 4    Doctor Q        30,849   0.0    4      0
 5    mkrishnan       29,618   0.0    5      0
 6    Eidorian        28,579   1.4    6      0
 7    Applejuiced     28,347  13.1    7      0
 8    rdowns          25,954   1.3    8      0
 9    Abstract        24,142   0.0    9      0
10    robbieduncan    23,822   2.5   10      0
11    jsw             22,497   0.0   11      0
12    Mr. Anderson    22,399   0.0   12      0
13    Blue Velvet     21,618   0.0   13      0
14    Hellhammer      21,459   0.1   14      0
15    simsaladimbamba 20,502  17.4   26    +11
16    maflynn         20,420  13.4   24     +8
17    bartelby        19,788   0.0   15     -2
18    Dagless         19,670   0.9   17     -1
19    iGary           19,583   0.0   16     -3
20    Jaffa Cake      19,299   2.0   22     +2
21    miles01110      19,264   0.0   18     -3
22    PlaceofDis      19,235   0.0   20     -2
23    iBlue           19,172   0.0   21     -2
24    edesignuk       19,101   0.0   19     -5
25    alphaod         18,518   5.5   25      0
Code: 
                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
26    ~Shard~         18,340   0.1   23     -3
27    DoFoT9          17,251   0.4   27      0
28    MacNut          17,219   1.8   29     +1
29    MacDawg         17,099   1.0   28     -1
30    dukebound85     17,053   2.8   31     +1
31    wdlove          16,571   0.0   30     -1
32    iJohnHenry      16,460   0.0   32      0
33    -aggie-         16,412   0.4   33      0
34    balamw          16,142   5.0   38     +4
35    Peace           16,046   7.0   41     +6
36    yellow          15,910   0.0   34     -2
37    sushi           15,634   0.0   35     -2
38    Nermal          15,578   3.2   40     +2
39    devilot         15,531   0.0   37     -2
40    WildCowboy      15,337   0.0   36     -4
41    Surely          15,048   0.0   39     -2
42    KnightWRX       15,045   2.8   44     +2
43    r.j.s           14,882   0.9   42     -1
44    Sun Baked       14,666   0.0   43     -1
45    twoodcc         14,573   1.4   45      0
46    bousozoku       13,950   0.0   47     +1
47    MacRumorUser    13,672  10.4   ---    ---
48    Mitthrawnuruodo 13,391   0.0   48      0
49    IJ Reilly       13,335   2.1   49      0
50    yg17            13,138   1.1   50      0
Columns:
  1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
  3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
  4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months.
  5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (January 2013), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
  6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

Observations
  • MacRumorUser is new to the Top 50.

  • As predicted last time, GoCubsGo passed mad jew for the #2 spot.

  • Applejuiced stayed in 7th place rather than moving up past mkrishnan and Eidorian as I predicted last time.

  • The seven highest posters in the last 6 months (the only users to make more than 2000 posts in 6 months) were
    1. simsaladimbamba (3,147 posts)
    2. SandboxGeneral (2,592 posts)
    3. maflynn (2,427 posts)
    4. GGJstudios (2,402 posts)
    5. Applejuiced (2,368 posts)
    6. Weaselboy (2,118 posts)
    7. samcraig (2,058 posts)

  • KnightWRX made only 506 posts in the last 6 months after making 2,496 posts in the preceding 6 months and 2,376 in the 6 months before that.

  • edesignuk is now #24, right after his wife! Their combined posts, if made by just one of them, would have earned the #2 slot.

  • Due to vBulletin quirks and some back-room changes in how moderation notes are maintained, the post counts of the moderators and administrators (including retired moderators) have been artificially reduced, so the participation of our volunteers who happen to be in the Top 50 (including me) is underrepresented.

Other stats and charts

 
Last edited:
Years of membership

Here we see how long the Top 50 forum members have been at MacRumors.

Nobody has hit a dozen years yet, but Mr. Anderson will hit that mark on November 1. We'll have to wait until next January before MacNut, the longest active Top 50 member, reaches a dozen.

arn was the first forum member, but he's not in the Top 50. He'd be #58 in a Top 100. He launched MacRumors on February 24, 2000. His profile shows a join date of April 9, 2001, because that's when he switched the forums to vBulletin.

Of the Top 50 only simsaladimbamba has been a member less than 4 years, and in fact he won't reach 3 years until November 28. Since you have to be at least 13 years old to join MacRumors, it's tough to make the Top 50 until you are at least 17 years old.

Years of Membership

click for the full-size graph

130703-years-of-membership.png​
 
Changes in Rank

This graph shows who has moved up and who has fallen behind. 40% of the Top 50 members (20 out of 50) stayed at the same rank as 6 months ago. 60% (30 out of 50) stayed within 1 of their previous rank.

Largest increase in rank: simsaladimbamba, up 11 slots.

Largest decrease in rank: edesignuk, down 5 slots.

Inactive/retired member bousozoku managed to move up a slot without posting. That's because a former MacRumors member, near the bottom of the Top 50, left the site, thereby vacating the spot just above bousozoku. I'll let bousozoku know of his amazing achievement; I'm sure he'll be amused. Or perhaps he'll be horrified that he's still in the Top 50 without having posted since 2008.


Increase (or decrease) in rank

click for the full-size graph

130103-increase-in-rank.png​
 
An interesting graph, related to the "years active" graph, would be for the names to be in the "highest post" order, but with a years active graph bar. Does that make sense?
 
maflynn said:
Great job Q, on a holiday (for the US) no less :)
Click to expand...
That's how I ended up starting this tradition. I had a day off and invented a math project. Little did I know I'd still be working on it a decade later!

samiwas said:
An interesting graph, related to the "years active" graph, would be for the names to be in the "highest post" order, but with a years active graph bar. Does that make sense?
Click to expand...
Sure, let's try it. Does it tell you anything?


Years of Membership, in order by current rank

click for the full-size graph

130703-years-of-membership-by-rank.png​
 
6-Month Projections

Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July 2013

Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jan 4, 2014     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
  1   GGJstudios      40,964    1     0
  2   GoCubsGo        34,168    2     0
  3   mad jew         32,194    3     0
  4   Applejuiced     30,767    7    +3
  5   Doctor Q        30,270    4    -1
  6   mkrishnan       29,478    5    -1
  7   Eidorian        28,838    6    -1
  8   rdowns          26,194    8     0
  9   robbieduncan    24,279   10    +1
 10   Abstract        24,142    9    -1
 11   simsaladimbamba 23,719   15    +4
 12   maflynn         22,901   16    +4
 13   jsw             22,420   11    -2
 14   Mr. Anderson    22,242   12    -2
 15   Hellhammer      21,473   14    -1
 16   Blue Velvet     21,389   13    -3
 17   Dagless         19,841   18    +1
 18   bartelby        19,790   17    -1
 19   Jaffa Cake      19,677   20    +1
 20   iGary           19,583   19    -1
 21   alphaod         19,532   25    +4
 22   miles01110      19,264   21    -1
 23   PlaceofDis      19,235   22    -1
 24   iBlue           19,174   23    -1
 25   edesignuk       18,940   24    -1
Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jan 4, 2014     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
 26   ~Shard~         18,340   26     0
 27   dukebound85     17,569   30    +3
 28   MacNut          17,544   28     0
 29   Peace           17,346   35    +6
 30   DoFoT9          17,327   27    -3
 31   MacDawg         17,285   29    -2
 32   balamw          17,061   34    +2
 33   wdlove          16,571   31    -2
 34   -aggie-         16,494   33    -1
 35   iJohnHenry      16,460   32    -3
 36   Nermal          16,176   38    +2
 37   yellow          15,802   36    -1
 38   sushi           15,606   37    -1
 39   MacRumorUser    15,590   47    +8
 40   KnightWRX       15,562   42    +2
 41   devilot         15,470   39    -2
 42   WildCowboy      15,069   40    -2
 43   Surely          15,048   41    -2
 44   r.j.s           14,882   43    -1
 45   twoodcc         14,825   45     0
 46   Sun Baked       14,667   44    -2
 47   bousozoku       13,950   46    -1
 48   dejo            13,902  ---   ---
 49   Intell          13,809  ---   ---
 50   jav6454         13,784  ---   ---
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection Jan 4, 2014 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
  3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
  4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2013 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.

Observations
  • dejo, Intell, and jav6454 are projected to join the Top 50. dejo has already been hovering just below the cutoff and last time I predicted that he would have already joined the Top 50 by now.

  • Projected to drop off the Top 50: yg17, IJ Reilly, and Mitthrawnuruodo. I keep predicting that IJ Reilly will drop off the list and he keeps fooling me by staying on the list. I'm apparently unaware of the "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me" adage because I'm predicting, for the third time in a row, that he'll drop off the list within 6 months.

  • Applejuiced didn't move up in the current-day rankings as I expected, but should pass Doctor Q, mkrishnan, and Eidorian in the next 6 months.

  • Abstract and robbieduncan are expected to swap their #9 and #10 slots, with robbieduncan gaining the upper hand.

  • No users are projected to join or leave the Top 10. No users are projected to join or leave the Top 20. And no users are projected to join or leave the Top 25. That's the first time I remember it happening.
 
6-Month Projections: Changes in Rank

This graph shows who is projected to move up or down over the next 6 months and by how many positions.

Quite a few users went up or down in rank, almost all by 4 or less. The exceptions are MacRumorUser, up an amazing 8 slots amid tough competition, and Peace, with an impressive 6-slot climb.

7 members are projected to retain their rank, which is less than an average number for this measure.

The biggest drops are small: 3-slot decreases in rank for Blue Velvet and DoFoT9 and iJohnHenry.


Increase (or decrease) in rank

click for the full-size graph

130103-increase-in-rank2.png​
 
chown33 said:
How accurate were the projections made 6 months ago?
Click to expand...
Comparing my 6-month predictions from 6 months ago with the current Top 50:
  • 25 members rank exactly where I predicted they would.
  • 36 members rank within 1 of where I predicted.
  • 42 members rank within 2 of where I predicted.
  • 46 members rank within 3 of where I predicted.
  • That leaves my least accurate predictions:
    • I predicted that KnightWRX would be ranked 31. Actual rank: 42. Off by 11.
    • I predicted that MacRumorUser would be ranked 56. Actual rank: 47. Off by 9.
    • I predicted that miles01110 would be ranked 16. Actual rank: 21. Off by 5.
    • I predicted that Peace would be ranked 40. Actual rank: 35. Off by 5.
I'm not embarrassed when the bad calls are in the bottom half of the list, since the ranks of those members are affected by everyone above them. Therefore, miles01110 might be my worst prediction. That came about because miles01110 stopped posting, after making 2000+ posts in multiple previous 6-month intervals and 1000+ posts in the previous 6 months.

My average percentage of error in predicted ranks was 5.23%. I've never computed that statistic before, so we'll have to see if I do better or worse in the future.
 
Always interesting to see these. Thanks, Doctor Q.

Pretty sad to see that the Top 50 posters are, for the most part, inactive on the site.
 
Ha! You predicted that I'd drop one place, but I actually gained two! I need to continue this trend with moar spam :D
 
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July 2013

Code: 
Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------- --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
  1   GGJstudios        22.49     1      0     1      0
  2   simsaladimbamba   18.85    15    +13     2      0
  3   Applejuiced       16.06     7     +4     3      0
  4   maflynn           13.93    16    +12     5     +1
  5   Macman45          13.01   ---    ---     4     -1
  6   SandboxGeneral    11.22   ---    ---    11     +5
  7   samcraig           9.96   ---    ---    10     +3
  8   Intell             9.16   ---    ---     8      0
  9   GoCubsGo           8.53     2     -7     7     -2
 10   KnightWRX          7.91    42    +32     6     -4
 11   onthecouchagain    6.81   ---    ---   ---    ---
 12   Weaselboy          6.77   ---    ---   ---    ---
 13   MacRumorUser       6.54    47    +34   ---    ---
 14   Peace              6.17    35    +21    18     +4
 15   KPOM               6.16   ---    ---    12     -3
 16   balamw             5.93    34    +18    13     -3
 17   gnasher729         5.87   ---    ---    23     +6
 18   dhlizard           5.52   ---    ---    16     -2
 19   ucfgrad93          5.30   ---    ---    29    +10
 20   alphaod            4.96    25     +5    32    +12
 21   mrsir2009          4.81   ---    ---    17     -4
 22   philipma1957       4.75   ---    ---   ---    ---
 23   dejo               4.53   ---    ---    24     +1
 24   Bear               4.45   ---    ---   ---    ---
 25   darngooddesign     4.43   ---    ---    28     +3
Code: 
Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------- --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
 26   jav6454            4.26   ---    ---    36    +10
 27   stridemat          4.21   ---    ---    22     -5
 28   daneoni            3.96   ---    ---    42    +14
 29   roadbloc           3.88   ---    ---   ---    ---
 30   Night Spring       3.75   ---    ---    44    +14
 31   dukebound85        3.64    30     -1    31      0
 32   MacDawg            3.63    29     -3    14    -18
 33   Chupa Chupa        3.52   ---    ---    45    +12
 34   AidenShaw          3.27   ---    ---    38     +4
 35   OllyW              3.24   ---    ---    30     -5
 36   wordoflife         3.22   ---    ---    19    -17
 37   labman             3.22   ---    ---    15    -22
 38   old-wiz            3.03   ---    ---    47     +9
 39   robbieduncan       3.01    10    -29    43     +4
 40   charlituna         2.98   ---    ---   ---    ---
 41   Jaffa Cake         2.94    20    -21    39     -2
 42   Small White Car    2.92   ---    ---    40     -2
 43   kdarling           2.83   ---    ---    27    -16
 44   BaldiMac           2.80   ---    ---   ---    ---
 45   Nermal             2.71    38     -7   ---    ---
 46   justperry          2.68   ---    ---   ---    ---
 47   rhett7660          2.68   ---    ---    48     +1
 48   rdowns             2.64     8    -40    37    -11
 49   annk               2.57   ---    ---    26    -23
 50   Geckotek           2.56   ---    ---    25    -25
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
  3. Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See the definition of weighted rate that I've used since July 2006.
  4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2013, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
  6. Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (January 2013, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
  7. Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.

These are the true "top posters" at MacRumors since they currently make the most posts over any given time period.


Observations

  • As usual, we have a handful of stratospheric posters, but only a few dozen members who consistently make 3 posts or more per day. It's easy to get involved in a discussion or debate on occasion and make more than 3 posts on a given day, but you have to visit the forums very regularly to keep up a pace worthy of the End of Time Top 50.

  • The Top 3 retain their positions from the previous End of Time rankings.

  • GGJstudios has dropped from over 30 posts/day to less than 23 by my formula, but that's still enough for 1st place.

  • simsaladimbamba (ranked #2) and Applejuiced (ranked #3) are the only other members making over 15 posts/day.

  • maflynn makes about 1 post/day more than Macman45, which puts him in the lead as they swap the #4 and #5 positions. They are both male but I'll still call it the "Ma" race, i.e., "Ma" flynn vs. "Ma" cman45! :D

  • SandboxGeneral moves into the Top 10, bumping out miles01110.

  • New to the End of Time Top 50: Weaselboy, MacRumorUser, Bear, Nermal. Bumped out: Tomorrow, chrono1081, saving107, milo.

  • It used to take 3 posts/day to make the list. Now you can almost qualify with 2.5 posts/day.

  • It takes 30 posts per week to make the Top 25.

  • Of the Top 50 posters, Chupa Chupa has been a member the longest (since July 2002) and Macman45 joined most recently (July 2011). They had the same distinction last time. Bear has the 2nd-longest membership, having joined only a week after Chupa Chupa.
 
rdowns said:
Always interesting to see these. Thanks, Doctor Q.

Pretty sad to see that the Top 50 posters are, for the most part, inactive on the site.
Click to expand...
I checked and found that 41 of the current Top 50 have posted in the last 6 months. Of the 9 who are inactive, the longest-absent is wdlove, who last posted in March 2007. His animated avatar has looped 26,078,740 times since he last posted!

You've slowed down but you might make it to 26,000 posts if you try. :)


Post count history: rdowns

click for the full-size graph

130703-post-count-rdowns.png​
 
End of Time projections: changes in rank

This graph shows the changes in rank from the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now. In other words, it shows rank changes based on changes in the post rate of each member.

This chart shows only members who were in both Top 50 lists.

Five members are projected to hold their spots in the End of Time Top 50.

It's nice of Geckotek to double rank in such a tidy fashion: from last in the Top 25 to last in the Top 50!


Increase (or decrease) in rank

click for the full-size graph

130703-increase-in-rank3.png​
 
Doctor Q said:
I checked and found that 41 of the current Top 50 have posted in the last 6 months. Of the 9 who are inactive, the longest-absent is wdlove, who last posted in March 2007. His animated avatar has looped 26,078,740 times since he last posted!
Click to expand...

Does the software tell you that or did you calculate that out some how?

:)
 
tech4all said:
Does the software tell you that or did you calculate that out some how?

:)
Click to expand...
It was a manual operation. I sat there and counted 10 loops with a stopwatch, then divided by 10 and divided that into the total number of seconds.

I wonder which forum member's animated avatar has been through the most repetitions!
 
Last edited:
Very nice work as always Q! It seems that the slow but steady pace of a user is what will win the day once we reach infinity! :D
 
Interesting reading as usual. Could you clarify something though?

You state above

It used to take 3 posts/day to make the list. Now you can almost qualify with 2.5 posts/day.

My average daily count is 3.32. Am I missing something? Maths isn't my strong point by the way!
 
Apple fanboy said:
Interesting reading as usual. Could you clarify something though?

You state above

It used to take 3 posts/day to make the list. Now you can almost qualify with 2.5 posts/day.

My average daily count is 3.32. Am I missing something? Maths isn't my strong point by the way!
Click to expand...
Good question, Apple fanboy. The reason you're not in the list is that my candidate pool consists of members who are, or have been, among the Top 100 by post count. That means that you need about 8000 posts to get onto my radar. Even getting into the Top 200 requires about 5000 posts.

Also, many members have high post rates temporarily after joining, then disappear or slow down, so the post rates of members who have joined in the last year aren't reliable measures for even the short-term future, much less the End of Time.

If I had a technical way to measure the post rates of all 800,000 forum members, rather than those with the top post counts, then you'd get credit for your 3.32 posts/day. But so would thousands of others in similar circumstances, so chances are that the minimum posts/day required for the Top 50 would be noticeably higher.
 
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