While there is admittedly much waving about of the "Spanner of Speculation" and the "Foam of Doubt", LawVS's morning video has some interesting thought experiments.
The main focus is how Cadillac may replace Haas as the primary customer team as Haas and Toyota's orbits close. Toyota is said to want to have a say in Haas' driver line-up come 2027 - not in a "pay driver" schema like Honda and Yuki at Red Bull, but instead if Toyota has a viable rookie candidate available (likely one who will have had multiple FP1 appearances in the Haas during the 2026 season). And while there have been no hints of Toyota looking into launching their own PU - especially one ready by 2029 when the current Haas-Ferrari engine deal expires - Toyota could decide to enter the sport in 2031 with the next engine homologation rules and that would mean Ferrari and Haas would have to build a "firewall" between them like Sauber and Ferrari had to when Audi took full control of the team.
Cadillac, on the other hand, appears to be tightening their relationship with Ferrari, signing Zhou Guanyu as their Reserve Driver. This will give Cadillac a simulator driver with recent knowledge of Ferrari's engine. Cadillac also will have open seats available to test Ferrari Academy drivers like Rafael Câmara and Dino Beganovic. Law does note that Colton Herta might have chosen the wrong time to leave IndyCar for F2 now that the FIA has increased the Super License Points allocation for that series, but he does note that Herta would benefit from being able to race on F1 circuits for a year and experience F1 race weekends.
As we know, the FIA and Formula One are currently in initial discussions about the 2031 engine rules. While there has been talk about dropping the turbo-hybrids in favor of normally-aspirated V8s or V10s, with the cubic Euros the PU suppliers are spending on the current engine formula, there is some amount of doubt that any significant changes will happen. Audi are dead-set against it and I am sure GM's Board of Directors is not excited about the prospect of spending hundreds of millions on a THPU that might see only one or two seasons of operation on top of then spending scores of millions developing a NA V8/V10. And if Toyota expresses interest in becoming a PU supplier (and future Works Team), they're preference will play a major role, as well.
Law believes this may play into Ferrari's hands in regards of keeping Cadillac as a customer engine supplier beyond 2029. If the FIA/FOM decide to scrap the turbo-hybrids before GM's engine is ready, GM will likely cancel development and focus on 2031, in which case they would need to extend their Ferrari customer deal. And if the FOM/FIA decide to keep the turbo-hybrids and just refine them for 2031, that might convince GM to delay their own THPU entry into service until 2031 to continue to develop it and therefore they would also extend their customer deal with Ferrari.
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