3G iPhone and FCC Approval

[paulold]

Say the rumors are true that Apple will release a new 3G version of the iPhone in the second quarter of 2008... Would Apple have to go thru the whole FCC approval process again for the new phone, thereby delaying sales 6 months again?

Does this FCC approval delay happen all the time with cellphones and I just haven't noticed? Or do other companies hold off announcing their new models until after the FCC approval has been received?

Would we know if Apple has already applied for FCC approval? Is that a matter of public record?

 

[gloss]

Say the rumors are true that Apple will release a new 3G version of the iPhone in the second quarter of 2008... Would Apple have to go thru the whole FCC approval process again for the new phone, thereby delaying sales 6 months again?

Does this FCC approval delay happen all the time with cellphones and I just haven't noticed? Or do other companies hold off announcing their new models until after the FCC approval has been received?

Would we know if Apple has already applied for FCC approval? Is that a matter of public record?

You're looking at maybe a month or two for approval. Six months is a gross exaggeration.

 

[kdarling]

Say the rumors are true that Apple will release a new 3G version of the iPhone in the second quarter of 2008... Would Apple have to go thru the whole FCC approval process again for the new phone, thereby delaying sales 6 months again?

The first iPhone FCC approval took about seven weeks. Then ATT spent a couple of months testing it for their own approval.

Bear in mind that when you submit test results to the FCC, you already know that you're going to pass. Otherwise it's a huge waste of time and money.

Does this FCC approval delay happen all the time with cellphones and I just haven't noticed? Or do other companies hold off announcing their new models until after the FCC approval has been received?

Yes, there are plenty of websites that search for and announce new FCC approvals. Almost always the phone is already well known overseas. The FCC notice lets everyone know that the phone could show up in the USA as well. Sometimes it takes well over six months before it does go on sale, though, if ever... the time between is often spent in a long carrier testing and option change process.

Would we know if Apple has already applied for FCC approval? Is that a matter of public record?

Not until it's approved. And even then, they could ask for everything except the test results to be kept secret. In other words, we would know it had 3G. But we wouldn't know its shape, size, memory, new apps, etc.

It could go on sale the moment it was approved and surprise everyone.

 

[Surely]

It could go on sale the moment it was approved and surprise everyone.

That would be the only smart strategy for Apple to take. If they announced a 3G iPhone 4-6 weeks or so before it is ready for sale, it would kill all existing iPhone sales- people would hold off on buying an Edge iPhone until the 3G came out.

I'm quite happy with Edge. I'm sure that 3G kicks Edge's butt, but so far, I really have no complaints. It's a little slow, but not painfully slow.

 

[Sonicjay]

3G iPhone 4-6 weeks or so before it is ready for sale, it would kill all existing iPhone sales

I'm quite happy with Edge. I'm sure that 3G kicks Edge's butt, but so far, I really have no complaints.

And that's why I think it wouldn't impact as many purchases as some believe. I'd be willing to bet that a large number of potential iPhone customers have no idea what the hell EDGE/3G even is and would buy one regardless (clearly not anyone on this forum, but still).

 

[wizard]

That would be the only smart strategy for Apple to take. If they announced a 3G iPhone 4-6 weeks or so before it is ready for sale, it would kill all existing iPhone sales- people would hold off on buying an Edge iPhone until the 3G came out.

Some might hold off but I don't believe it would be enough to put a huge crimp in Apple sales. First many people don't have a clue about what Edge or 3G is. Second Edge isn't as bad as has been implied, many see it as being perfectly suitable. Third many don't want to pay the early adopter fees.

I'm quite happy with Edge. I'm sure that 3G kicks Edge's butt, but so far, I really have no complaints. It's a little slow, but not painfully slow.

Which highlights why 3G isn't that big of a draw. I'd be wiling to bet that right now more iPhone purchases are held up due the pending release of the SDK or the wish for more Flash. I actually could see the current iPhone drop in price significantly when the 3G phone comes out and sell very well indeed.

The thing is that the service provided through Edge or 3G is only part of what makes the iPhone desirable. Personally a lower price and the right freedoms with the SDK mean more to me than 3G. The other reality is that 3G might only be very insignificant with respect to the innovation seen in iPhone 2. I expect iPhone 2 to sell well but I don't expect everyone to flock to it because of 3G, there is huge potential for much more interesting stuff.

Dave

 

[paulold]

And that's why I think it wouldn't impact as many purchases as some believe. I'd be willing to bet that a large number of potential iPhone customers have no idea what the hell EDGE/3G even is and would buy one regardless (clearly not anyone on this forum, but still).

I first heard of 3G from my asian friends when the iPhone first came out. They bitched about having to unlock their iPhones and that it wasn't 3G. So until I read this forum, I figured 3G was some international thing and nothing to do with the US. Now I know a little more and since I live in the DC area and my family lives in the NYC area, I would much prefer a 3G iPhone.

Many of the reviews of the iPhone criticize its web browsing saying it's very slow when you're on the EDGE network as compared to a wireless network and I saw this slowness both at the Apple Store and at home, when a friend let me use his iPhone. The ability to browse on the web when I'm not near a wireless network is important to me, so any improvements in that area would be worth waiting for. Otherwise, I should just get an iPod Touch and keep my cell phone.

But I agree - I'm sure a lot of Americans aren't familiar with 3G and that it's available in their area.

I came very close to buying an iPhone this past weekend. (I didn't because it was sold out.) Now, even though it's back in stock, I feel like I'll wait for the 3G model cause I sense it's coming soon. I could be totally wrong, but I already experienced the disapointment of purchasing a Mac Book Pro a couple of months before they improved it for the same price. I've waited this long - I can wait a little longer.

 

[olternaut]

You're looking at maybe a month or two for approval. Six months is a gross exaggeration.

Ok. So with that reasoning then it wouldn't be too insane to suggest that Jobs might use tommorow's event to debut the 3g iphone?? That way he can get the approval within a month or two so he can get busy selling it. I mean, he would have to get busy selling it early in the year so that he can make his 10 million iphone sales goal for calendar 2008. And its for the entire year not including the 3.7 million iphone sales of last year.
That was Jobs stated goal.

I mean......is this theory of mine credible?

 

[skittlez]

Ok. So with that reasoning then it wouldn't be too insane to suggest that Jobs might use tommorow's event to debut the 3g iphone?? That way he can get the approval within a month or two so he can get busy selling it. I mean, he would have to get busy selling it early in the year so that he can make his 10 million iphone sales goal for calendar 2008. And its for the entire year not including the 3.7 million iphone sales of last year.
That was Jobs stated goal.

I mean......is this theory of mine credible?

i think so =]

 

[rockstarjoe]

I would not be surprised if the 3G iPhone is introduced tomorrow as a "high end" model, with a higher price and more expensive data plan than the EDGE model. I think they will keep selling the EDGE model for at least another year or so.

Having said that, I can't wait to buy a 3g iPhone!

 

[Surely]

I came very close to buying an iPhone this past weekend. (I didn't because it was sold out.) Now, even though it's back in stock, I feel like I'll wait for the 3G model cause I sense it's coming soon. I could be totally wrong, but I already experienced the disapointment of purchasing a Mac Book Pro a couple of months before they improved it for the same price. I've waited this long - I can wait a little longer.

The force must be strong within you if you can sense it.

I would not be surprised if the 3G iPhone is introduced tomorrow as a "high end" model, with a higher price and more expensive data plan than the EDGE model. I think they will keep selling the EDGE model for at least another year or so.

Having said that, I can't wait to buy a 3g iPhone!

I would be surprised at both the announcement of a 3G phone tomorrow and of a higher priced data plan. Very surprised.

 

[skubish]

We would know as soon as the FCC application is submitted not when its approved.

 

[AMoeini]

I hate when people say 6 months.
And yeah, lots of random threads about 3G popping up, usually around 4 new ones with the same questions everyday..
The 3G service will cost the same, the phone will probably shoot up a little in price. Can't wait for another Steve "And best of all, it only cost 599$!"

 

[Justinerator]

I would be surprised at both the announcement of a 3G phone tomorrow and of a higher priced data plan. Very surprised.

I would be surprised about the higher priced data plan, but not the announcement. A refresh of the Iphone (hardware-wise) is needed. Software and firmware has been able to get it this far, all apple needs to do now is take it that extra step further, which I think they will do tomorrow.

 

[i0Nic]

Jobs will announce the 3g iPhone 4 weeks before it is on sale, and will also announce another big price cut for the current iPhone so that way they will keep selling iPhones to people that won't want to spend 549 or whatever it is on a 3g 32gb iPhone.

Late july announcement, August release (USA).
September release UK, Germany, France.. also a wider array of European countries.
October/November release in Asia/Pacific (China, Australia)

 

[Michael CM1]

Say the rumors are true that Apple will release a new 3G version of the iPhone in the second quarter of 2008... Would Apple have to go thru the whole FCC approval process again for the new phone, thereby delaying sales 6 months again?

Does this FCC approval delay happen all the time with cellphones and I just haven't noticed? Or do other companies hold off announcing their new models until after the FCC approval has been received?

Would we know if Apple has already applied for FCC approval? Is that a matter of public record?

Considering Citigroup is more reliable than any of us on here, I would hedge my bets on the 2Q forecast before the "FCC + 6 months" thing I keep hearing on here.

In the end, the 3G iPhone will come out when it comes out. I just need it to be here soon after we all get our fancy $600 bribes, er.. tax rebates!

 

[kdarling]

Just adding 3G might not be enough to sway many people, especially if the data plan costs more.

They might feel the need to add more whiz-bang stuff to make it extra tempting.

A good bet is that they'll add GPS at the same time. Perhaps even a user facing camera for video conferencing.

 

[olternaut]

We would know as soon as the FCC application is submitted not when its approved.

But he won't submit the application before he announces the new product beforehand. It would suck if the first time we hear of it would be from some place other than Jobs himself from a media event.
Thats what he did with the first iphone. He won't deviate from that pattern.

 

[olternaut]

Jobs will announce the 3g iPhone 4 weeks before it is on sale, and will also announce another big price cut for the current iPhone so that way they will keep selling iPhones to people that won't want to spend 549 or whatever it is on a 3g 32gb iPhone.

Late july announcement, August release (USA).
September release UK, Germany, France.. also a wider array of European countries.
October/November release in Asia/Pacific (China, Australia)

Yes but he needs the 3G iphone to make his 10 million iphone sale for 2008 that is for sure. But he would have to start selling it as soon as possible correct? I mean, am I correct? If so then wouldn't today be the day that he at least announces it?

 

[pazreal]

Why would the data plan cost more? The infrastructure is already in place in most places (that have it) and they have to expand in the other markets anyway (not necessarily because of the iPhone) so at that point it's not as if they have to raise the plan fees to cover, they already are making profit.

 

[rockstarjoe]

Why would the data plan cost more? The infrastructure is already in place in most places (that have it) and they have to expand in the other markets anyway (not necessarily because of the iPhone) so at that point it's not as if they have to raise the plan fees to cover, they already are making profit.

While I agree with what you are saying, I think ATT will see this as an opportunity to make mo'money. Just being cynical I guess.

 

[kdarling]

We would know as soon as the FCC application is submitted not when its approved.

No, they show up on the FCC website AFTER approval. Just as with the iPhone... no one saw its FCC app until it was approved.

Have fun searching yourself:

FCC Search Page

Either put BCG in the Grantee Code or put Apple in the Applicant Name. In the Date Range, put in something like 01/01/2008 - 03/06/2008. Then click Start Search.

(You'll get details on a hub Apple just got approved. Its pics were secret until the 2/29.)

 

[jswerdy]

Ok. So with that reasoning then it wouldn't be too insane to suggest that Jobs might use tommorow's event to debut the 3g iphone?? That way he can get the approval within a month or two so he can get busy selling it. I mean, he would have to get busy selling it early in the year so that he can make his 10 million iphone sales goal for calendar 2008. And its for the entire year not including the 3.7 million iphone sales of last year.
That was Jobs stated goal.

I mean......is this theory of mine credible?

calender year as referred to is not Jan-Dec, its the fiscal yea which is oct-july (ish, not sure the exact quarter break ups). the 10 million goal applies to the fiscal calender. numbers are inching up there (not sure if they are at 8 million yet)

so no, i dont think your theory is credible, being as any june introduction and any significant sales would apply to the 2nd year of iphone production (production started in June, so apples 1 year goal for 10 million most likely applies to the year starting then or the next fiscal year which would end towards early fall)

 

[olternaut]

calender year as referred to is not Jan-Dec, its the fiscal yea which is oct-july (ish, not sure the exact quarter break ups). the 10 million goal applies to the fiscal calender. numbers are inching up there (not sure if they are at 8 million yet)

so no, i dont think your theory is credible, being as any june introduction and any significant sales would apply to the 2nd year of iphone production (production started in June, so apples 1 year goal for 10 million most likely applies to the year starting then or the next fiscal year which would end towards early fall)

No but see Steve explicitly said that he meant the calender year 2008 sales not fiscal, not from last year's June launch. He said he is not counting last year's sales. Ok, I was wrong about the announcement at the SDK event but his goal is still 10 million iphone sales for the year 2008. Google it.

 

[Edwardz]

I see Apple releasing a new hardware update to the iPhone before June and the 2.0 release. Jobs said in the announcement on the 6th, "You can automatically download these apps through CELL NETWORK or wi-fi." I don't think anyone would want to download it through at&t's EDGE network; therefore, a hardware revision is appropriate to be announced before the software update. We'll see though. My prediction: Nothing passed June for a new revision in hardware.
People often say that the 16 GB was a revision in hardware. That is incorrect, though. the capacity is not a hardware "update" so to speak, it just upgraded the memory.