54% of Near-Term Smartphone Purchasers Still Looking to iPhone 4S

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Citing "explosive momentum" for both Apple and Samsung, ChangeWave Research today released the results of a new survey of North American smartphone customers showing that over half of those looking to purchase a smartphone over the next 90 days are planning on buying an iPhone 4S. The 54% share of future buying plans held by Apple as of December was down from 65% in September, but easily marked Apple's best performance when measured two months after a new product release after demand has generally slackened considerably.
The late December survey looked at smart phone demand trends going forward, and finds Apple iPhone demand remains incredibly strong more than two months after the iPhone 4S release.

Among respondents planning to buy a new smart phone in the next 90 days, better than one-in-two (54%; down 11-pts) say they'll get an iPhone.

Apple has never dominated smart phone planned buying to this extent more than two months after a major new release.
Samsung has continued its momentum among Android smartphone purchasers, with its share more than doubling to 13% among those looking to purchase a new phone over the next three months.

In analyzing satisfaction of existing smartphone users, Apple continues to lead with 75% of owners saying they are "very satisfied" with their iPhones. The iPhone has ranked in the 70-80% range for nearly the entire history of the device. Among Apple's competitors, Android manufacturers Samsung, HTC, and Motorola all score in the 45-47% satisfaction range while Research in Motion has continued its slide with a new low of 22% of users registering as very satisfied with their BlackBerry devices.

ChangeWave's sample base focuses on professionals and early-adopter consumers, somewhat skewing its data toward higher-end users likely to have greater awareness of the market. But the firm's long history of consistent data gathering offers a look at patterns measured from this pool of users that frequently serves to set trends for the rest of the market.

Article Link: 54% of Near-Term Smartphone Purchasers Still Looking to iPhone 4S
 

george-brooks

macrumors 6502a
Oct 31, 2011
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16
Brooklyn, NY
I think Apple's market share is leveling off but I don't think it will fall much lower. Look at the spike in the graph when the 4S came out! I think this projection is partially due to the fact that the 4S is in mid product cycle and when the 5 comes out, there will be another spike.
 

ChazUK

macrumors 603
Feb 3, 2008
5,390
24
Essex (UK)
ChangeWave's sample base focuses on professionals and early-adopter consumers, somewhat skewing its data toward higher-end users likely to have greater awareness of the market.
Great, well explained article Eric. This sentence alone made the numbers make sense compared to when I read it at another site (Appleinsider) when you take the recent uprising of Samsung into account.

One of the reasons I love reading the articles here. :)
 

surjavarman

macrumors 6502a
Nov 24, 2007
645
1
Better be at 70% next year, hope samsung will lose some %.
Yeah I hope all the samsung loses all their % and the rest of the companies too. Apple should have 100% market share and no competition.


That means we'll be paying $3000 for a ****** black and white phone cause Apple doesn't have to do anything because there is no competition. That would be great for everyone
 

colinc

macrumors newbie
Sep 5, 2008
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iPhone != iPhone 4S

...say they'll get an iPhone.
Apple still sells 2 other iPhone models which sell pretty well. So I think it's fair to say that all 54% aren't looking at the 4S.
 

*LTD*

macrumors G4
Feb 5, 2009
10,703
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Yeah I hope all the samsung loses all their % and the rest of the companies too. Apple should have 100% market share and no competition.


That means we'll be paying $3000 for a ****** black and white phone cause Apple doesn't have to do anything because there is no competition. That would be great for everyone
Apple has consistently innovated in the absence of competition. Hell, Apple is the one *creating* the viable competition in dead, stagnant or wide open markets in the first place.
 

george-brooks

macrumors 6502a
Oct 31, 2011
732
16
Brooklyn, NY
Great, well explained article Eric. This sentence alone made the numbers make sense compared to when I read it at another site (Appleinsider) when you take the recent uprising of Samsung into account.

One of the reasons I love reading the articles here. :)
I was wondering what caused that insane spike in Samsung desire (13% v. 5% in Sept.). Maybe it can be attributed to this.
 

kdarling

macrumors P6
Apple still sells 2 other iPhone models which sell pretty well. So I think it's fair to say that all 54% aren't looking at the 4S.
True. For most of last year before the 4S arrived, there were reports that the inexpensive 3GS accounted for up to half of iPhone sales.

As for customer loyalty, Verizon recently noted something similar to what AT&T has said before: 80% of new iPhone sales are to previous owners.

So basically the carriers have built up a core iPhone user group that they can depend on to keep buying for themselves and their family.

At the same time, Android phones are selling about twice as fast as iOS phones, so intuitively it seems that new customers are going that way.
 

Skika

macrumors 68030
Mar 11, 2009
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At the same time, most Android phones are being given away about twice as fast as iOS phones are being sold, so intuitively it seems that new customers are going that way.

Yo i fixed your post, so it is now more accurate. Thanks is not necessary.

(inb4 the "3GS/99c blalablabla"...)
 

surjavarman

macrumors 6502a
Nov 24, 2007
645
1
Apple has consistently innovated in the absence of competition. Hell, Apple is the one *creating* the viable competition in dead, stagnant or wide open markets in the first place.
Wrong they always had competition. Their ipod lineup had competition from other mp3 players that were in the market before the ipod. Their computer lineup always had competition from other PC makers well before it. They entered the phone market that had already been established well before the iphone. And the tablet market is just an innovation in a market that already exists: the computer market.


They just innovated a phone to beat the competition and earn money. They innovate a mp3 player to make money. They are innovating to beat the competition. They want to make money. Thats why they are doing it. It's business.
 

santaliqueur

macrumors 6502a
Aug 7, 2007
988
486
Apple still sells 2 other iPhone models which sell pretty well. So I think it's fair to say that all 54% aren't looking at the 4S.
The study specifically mentions the iPhone 4S, not iPhones in general. So I think it's fair to say the number is larger than 54% for Apple, combined with the other 2 iPhone models you mention.
 

voonyx

macrumors 6502a
Jul 19, 2011
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True. For most of last year before the 4S arrived, there were reports that the inexpensive 3GS accounted for up to half of iPhone sales.

As for customer loyalty, Verizon recently noted something similar to what AT&T has said before: 80% of new iPhone sales are to previous owners.

So basically the carriers have built up a core iPhone user group that they can depend on to keep buying for themselves and their family.

At the same time, Android phones are selling about twice as fast as iOS phones, so intuitively it seems that new customers are going that way.
Yeah, but Android will eventually peak. It's not like Android is going to have 90% of the market, this time next year. At some point, carriers will have built up a core Android user group as well and Android growth will level off.
 

*LTD*

macrumors G4
Feb 5, 2009
10,703
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Canada
Wrong they always had competition. Their ipod lineup had competition from other mp3 players that were in the market before the ipod. Their computer lineup always had competition from other PC makers well before it. They entered the phone market that had already been established well before the iphone. And the tablet market is just an innovation in a market that already exists: the computer market.


They just innovated a phone to beat the competition and earn money. They innovate a mp3 player to make money. They are innovating to beat the competition. They want to make money. Thats why they are doing it. It's business.
That's the thing. Most of Apple's competition, isn't really worthy of that title. Until the "competition" starts taking a serious look at vertical integration (Samsung is slowly moving in this direction), it'll always be Apple vs. The Rest.
 
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george-brooks

macrumors 6502a
Oct 31, 2011
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Brooklyn, NY
Has anyone pointed this out yet?

The MR Article claims the data is related solely to the 4S, but the graph (and from my quick glance at the original article, it too) only state people wishing to buy an iPhone, period. Could the large spike around the 4S release also include people looking to get a free 3Gs or discounted 4? Or is the 4S really that much more desirable to the market than any previous iPhone?

UPDATE:
Double checked the original article, only mentions iPhones in general. Someone above me said it was specifically the 4S and the actual number all things considered is probably much higher. Where did you see that the data is only re: 4S? I don't see that anywhere, just "iPhone"


The late December survey looked at smart phone demand trends going forward, and finds Apple iPhone demand remains incredibly strong more than two months after the iPhone 4S release.

Among respondents planning to buy a new smart phone in the next 90 days, better than one-in-two (54%; down 11-pts) say they'll get an iPhone.
Says demand is still strong after the release of the 4S, but nowhere does it say that that is demand for the 4S and not all iPhones.
 
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gotluck

macrumors 603
Dec 8, 2011
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That's the thing. Most of Apple's competition, isn't really worthy of that title. Until the "competition" starts taking a serious look at vertical integration (Samsung is slowly moving in this direction), it'll always be Apple vs. The Rest.
When it comes to phones, tablets and ipods/music players - yes I agree with you.

Regarding traditional computers, Apple definitely has competition. I remain a PC user and don't feel like I'm missing out not going apple in that spectrum of tech. However, Apple has been on the ball in mobile tech - which is arguably where the future is going, particularly for consumers (but I'll always want a high performance desktop).
 

*LTD*

macrumors G4
Feb 5, 2009
10,703
1
Canada
When it comes to phones, tablets and ipods/music players - yes I agree with you.

Regarding traditional computers, Apple definitely has competition. I remain a PC user and don't feel like I'm missing out not going apple in that spectrum of tech. However, Apple has been on the ball in mobile tech - which is arguably where the future is going, particularly for consumers (but I'll always want a high performance desktop).
A fair point. Interesting to note, too, that Apple has been bringing some of their mobile tech features to Macs, a phenomenon which also happens to coincide with a historic rise in Mac market share and record Mac sales.

Could be coincidental, but you can't get away from the fact that Macs are currently selling at an all-time high with Lion installed.

I think if you're an average consumer who is new to Macs but experienced with iOS devices, Lion will feel like home - all the trackpad gestures (using Lion is a rather clumsy experience without them), full-screen functionality, Launchpad, etc.

Apple had that vast ocean of iOS users in mind when designing Lion. And it was a smart way of thinking.
 

vrDrew

macrumors 65816
Jan 31, 2010
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At the same time, Android phones are selling about twice as fast as iOS phones, so intuitively it seems that new customers are going that way.
That's one way of looking at it.

Another way is to consider the importance of refresh cycles (i.e. the 18 to 24 months under which most smartphones are sold) and satisfaction ratings - where Apple has consistently ranked above 90%.

Back in September Tim Cook said that half of all iPhones sold had been iPhone 4s, meaning that there is a universe of about 70 million iPhone 3G and older out there. And Apple can comfortably rely on ~ 80% of these people ungrading this year to an iPhone 4: Roughly 56 million new iPhone 4s.

The other half of the iPhone market is the roughly 1.5 billion smart and non-smart mobile phones of all types that get sold each year. And Apple hopes to get 5% or so this market, offering a variety of models, at varying price points. Or another 75 million or so units, for a total of 120-130 million before the "iPhone 5" is introduced next fall.

Its important to keep in mind refresh cycles for one other very important reason: Aside from Blackberry, most other non-Apple smartphones have been bought in the last eighteen months. They are (presently) still under contract, and changing or upgrading them would incur a financial penalty. Things will get interesting this fall, after the "iPhone 5" is introduced, and we get a better look at how Apple fares selling its new model to previous Android-owners: people who have completed their contract period, and are free to upgrade without incurring penalties.
 

AaronEdwards

macrumors 6502a
Feb 10, 2011
729
1
A new survey of 4,000 North American consumers by ChangeWave Research - a service of 451 Research - has found explosive momentum for Apple and Samsung as the new year gets underway.
Sorry, but unless there's more information, this "survey" is worthless.
For example, how did ChangeWave Research get their sample of 4,000 North American consumers?

I'm not going to pay the $499 they are asking for the full report.
 
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