I partly agree... Apple stock is over-valued. I do not believe it can sustain $230+.
is GOOG stock overvalued? Can it sustain 500+?
I am wondering what's your reasoning that APPL's level isn't sustainable? The stock is up nearly 900% in the past 10 years (I recommended it to a friend when it stood around $10 a share!!!)... Every 2-3 years, R&D comes out with a brand new product that 9 times out of 10 blows people away...percentages of people who own Apple products continue to grow...Apple is the largest US-based manufacturer of cell phones....etc.
Unless you have some real info that for some reason Apple has stopped innovating or coming up with new ideas, I find your theory to be based solely on wishcasting.
In my opinion, I think APPL still has room to grow. Sure, innovation is built into the current prices, but the same was true before the release of the iPhone and iPad and with the rousing success of those items, the investors continued to buy and drive the stock price higher.
PLUS there are still BILLIONS of dollars NOT in the stock market that will be looking for a place to invest as the economy bounces back this year. Investors who has stayed with cash or money market accounts, CDs or bonds have seen meager growth while the stock market has increased some 70-80% since the lows in March of 2009! With a return of stability and economic growth, those folks are going to pour money back into the markets and APPL is likely to remain a favorite.
APPL prices go down a bit before the release of a new product, then when reality hits, it soars again...almost predictably. True, it's unlikely there is a brand new product in the pipeline THIS year, but we already had one (iPad). Give it until 2011 or 2012. No reason to think there won't be something impressive coming down the pike.
I agree, it would take the death of SJ AND some sort of p|ss-poor CEO to take over who doesn't see a need to innovate to truly destroy APPL stock and the company. And that one-two punch does not seem the least bit likely. HECK, if SJ dies tomorrow, I would guess there is probably enough 'magic' being developed to keep APPL cruising for another couple of years easily.