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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2010

Doctor Q

Doctor Q

Administrator
Original poster
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
40,466
9,379
Los Angeles
This is the 14th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:
2003: July
2004: January, July
2005: January, July
2006: January, July
2007: January, July
2008: January, July
2009: January, July​

The legend of column headings follows each chart. My comments and analysis follow the charts. Measurements were taken on January 3rd.

Please remember that these charts and this thread are for general interest only. Please do not make posts simply to build your post count.

Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2010

Code: 
                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
  1   mad jew         32,206   0.0    1      0
  2   mkrishnan       27,629   9.7    2      0
  3   Doctor Q        24,787   6.6    3      0
  4   Eidorian        23,353  17.5    7     +3
  5   Mr. Anderson    22,484   0.0    4     -1
  6   jsw             22,106   0.0    5     -1
  7   Abstract        21,563   4.5    6     -1
  8   Blue Velvet     20,337   1.8    8      0
  9   edesignuk       19,229   4.2    9      0
 10   bartelby        19,045   6.1   11     +1
 11   iGary           18,736   4.5   12     +1
 12   jessica.        18,382  41.4   37    +25
 13   ~Shard~         18,282   0.0   10     -3
 14   PlaceofDis      18,132   2.0   13     -1
 15   iBlue           16,620   7.9   16     +1
 16   wdlove          16,567   0.0   14     -2
 17   rdowns          16,363  13.8   23     +6
 18   robbieduncan    16,195   8.2   19     +1
 19   raggedjimmi     15,954   5.0   17     -2
 20   devilot         15,556   0.0   15     -5
 21   yellow          15,359   2.6   18     -3
 22   WildCowboy      14,550   1.6   21     -1
 23   Jaffa Cake      14,231   6.0   26     +3
 24   Sun Baked       14,089   2.7   24      0
 25   bousozoku       13,998   0.0   22     -3
Code: 
                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
 26   MacNut          13,963   4.0   25     -1
 27   sushi           13,056  10.1   33     +6
 28   Mitthrawnuruodo 12,698   2.3   27     -1
 29   alphaod         12,401  10.6   39    +10
 30   CanadaRAM       12,287   0.6   29     -1
 31   IJ Reilly       12,268   0.0   28     -3
 32   Nermal          12,236   2.8   31     -1
 33   twoodcc         12,023   5.1   34     +1
 34   eyelikeart      11,894   0.0   30     -4
 35   Rower_CPU       11,206   0.0   32     -3
 36   emw             11,059   0.0   35     -1
 37   Applespider     10,941   0.0   36     -1
 38   xUKHCx          10,891   3.2   41     +3
 39   dukebound85     10,864  11.1  ---    ---
 40   dmw007          10,597   0.0   38     -2
 41   Teh Don Ditty   10,401  11.6  ---    ---
 42   Lau             10,380   0.1   40     -2
 43   vniow           10,298   0.1   42     -1
 44   iJohnHenry      10,208  17.0  ---    ---
 45   Chundles        10,186   2.6   45      0
 46   DoFoT9          10,145  15.6  ---    ---
 47   Queso           10,134   1.4   44     -3
 48   arn              9,988   0.5   43     -5
 49   leekohler        9,976   8.1  ---    ---
 50   r.j.s            9,747  21.8  ---    ---
Columns:
  1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
  3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
  4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership if they joined less than 6 months ago.
  5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (July 2009), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
  6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.
Other stats and charts:
 
Length of membership

Mean average among active posters in the Top 50: 69.3 months (5.8 years), up 2.3 months since last time. The average length of membership doesn't grow by 6 months every 6 months because the longest-term members aren't necessarily the highest posters. For example, the Top 50 now includes members who joined in 2006 through 2008 (alphaod, xUKHCx, Teh Don Ditty, iJohnHenry, DoFoT9, Queso, r.j.s) and who displaced members who joined in 2002 but just missed the Top 50 (skunk, jelloshotsrule, nagromme).

Standard deviation: 20.6 (1.7 years)

Among active Top 50 posters, the members with the longest memberships remain the same:
arn, 104.9 months (8.7 years)

Second-longest: MacNut, 96.0 months (8.0 years)

Third-longest: edesignuk, 93.4 months (7.8 years)
​

Shortest among active Top 50 members: iJohnHenry, 21.5 months (1.8 years)
Second-shortest: alphaod, 22.8 months (1.9 years)
​
The graph below shows the distribution of length of membership among the Top 50. The current distribution is in blue. The distribution from 6 months ago is in red. The descending values from 6 months ago have changed to double peaks at 5 to 6 years and 7 to 8 years.
 

Attachments

  • Length-of-membership.png
    Length-of-membership.png
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Comments on the Current Top 50 Posters chart

Changed members

The following members joined the Top 50 list, none making the Top 25:
dukebound85 (#39)
Teh Don Ditty (#41)
iJohnHenry (#44)
DoFoT9 (#46)
leekohler (#49)
r.j.s (#50)​

The following members just missed the Top 50. The are in order from highest to lowest post count.
Eraserhead (was #49)
skunk (was #50)
jelloshotsrule (was #46)
nagromme (was #47)
EricNau (was #48)​

Changes in rank

Highest rise in rank: jessica. up an amazing 25 slots from #37 to #12, i.e., nearly to the Top 10!
Next highest:
alphaod (up 10 slots)
rdowns and sushi (each up 6 slots)
Eidorian and Jaffa Cake and xUKHCx (each up 3 slots)
​

Losses in rank were milder than usual, with a maximum of 5 slots.

Highest loss in rank: devilot and arn, each down 5 slots
Next highest:
eyelikeart (down 4 slots)​

An unusually high number of members (7) retained their position in the Top 50 list:
mad jew (#1 six times in a row)
mkrishnan (#2 three times in a row)
Doctor Q (#3 three times in a row)
Blue Velvet (#8 five times in a row)
edesignuk (#9 seven times in a row) <--- remarkable consistency!
Sun Baked (#24 three times in a row)
Chundles (#45 four times in a row)
​

Eraserhead missed the Top 50 by 44 posts (0.24 posts per day, the equivalent of 1 post every 4.2 days).
skunk missed the Top 50 by 129 posts (0.70 posts per day, or 1 post every 1.4 days).​

Changes in the Top 10

mad jew hasn't posted since September 4, 2008 but is still 4,577 posts ahead of #2 mkrishnan. Last time the lead was 6,353 posts.

Doctor Q stayed at #3 while Eidorian (formerly #7) jumped into position #4, ahead of Mr. Anderson, jsw, and Abstract, who dropped from #4,#5,#6 to #5,#6,#7. Blue Velvet and edesignuk remained at #8 and #9 while bartelby moved up from #11 into the remaining Top 10 slot. ~Shard~, formerly #10, is now #13.

Random stats

The number of members with 20,000 or more posts stayed at 8, which surprised me. I predicted it would be 10 by now. Of the Top 50, 47 now have 10,000 or more posts. I predicted it would be 48. I predicted that it would take 9,844 posts to make the Top 50. The actual number is 9,747, so I was off by less than 1%.

Together, the Top 50 members have made a total of 787,539 posts at MacRumors (an average of 15,751 each). I predicted it would be 798,638 (1.4% more). If they each spent an average of 40 seconds thinking about their posts, that is collectively 1 solid year of thinking.

Posts in the last 6 months

This section excludes members who were not in my radar 6 months ago, since I didn't track their post histories. I try to spot up-and-coming posters who might join the Top 50 before the next 6-month period.

Highest number of posts in 6 months: jessica., 7,614 posts, 41.4 posts per day, up from 18.3 posts/day in the previous 6 months
Next-highest:
r.j.s (4,013 posts, 21.8 posts/day, up from 6.8)
Eidorian (3,222 posts, 17.5 posts/day, exactly his previous rate)
iJohnHenry (3,131 posts, 17.0 posts/day, down slightly from 17.7)

They were the only members with over 3,000 posts in 6 months.​
Another 4 members had post counts between 2,000 and 3,000 in 6 months: DoFoT9, rdowns, Teh Don Ditty, dukebound85​

Infrequent posters:
These 13 members made few or no posts yet stayed in the Top 50: mad jew, Mr. Anderson, jsw, ~Shard~, wdlove, devilot, bousozoku, IJ Reilly, eyelikeart, Rower_CPU, emw, Applespider, dmw007

Some are not around and some lurk but rarely post. Long-time high posters can take quite a while to move down the list, as wdlove has been doing since March 2007!​

Predictions from 6 months ago

My projections from six months ago for who would be in the Top 10 were correct for 8 of 10 members. I did better in the previous 6 months, getting 9 out of 10.

Excluded members and posts

MacRumors "bots" (members Macrumors, MacBytes, and DailyTunes) and banned members are excluded from my tracking. Otherwise, MacBytes would have been #20 on the Top 50, down from #15 six months ago and #14 a year ago.
 
NeuralControl said:
This is a very interesting thread. How long have you been extrapolating these trends?
Click to expand...
I first did it on an impulse during the long Independence Day weekend in 2003, not knowing that it would become a tradition, as well as a duty, to report the latest stats and projections every 6 months for the rest of my life.
 
Doctor Q said:
I first did it on an impulse during the long Independence Day weekend in 2003, not knowing that it would become a tradition, as well as a duty, to report the latest stats and projections every 6 months for the rest of my life.
Click to expand...

Stats and projections? Pffft.

I'm waiting for the trivia.

Good work, as always, Q.
 
I'll probably never make it on that list which is fine with me :)

How long does it take you to compile and calculate on the numbers, lists and posters?
 
I've slacked off a bit the past 6 months but didn't lose much ground.

edit, looks like I just knocked bousozoku out of the top 25.:eek:
 
This is what I call eye candy.

How long does it usually take to gather up and calculate all this data?
 
joepunk said:
I'll probably never make it on that list which is fine with me :)

How long does it take you to compile and calculate on the numbers, lists and posters?
Click to expand...
It takes me a few days. I do a small bit of preparation ahead of time, but I can't really get started until the 3rd since that's when I gather the raw data. Then I get out my abacus, slide rule, and ouija board and get down to business.

I have to give up other activities for those days, like eating, sleeping, paying the bills, playing pranks on family members by dropping a Mento into their Diet Coke, and checking in with my parole officer, but doing the stats is more fun.
 
Since it says "macrumors god" under your username, does that mean you are an owner of the site? If so, I thought arn was the only owner?
 
IBradMac said:
Since it says "macrumors god" under your username, does that mean you are an owner of the site? If so, I thought arn was the only owner?
Click to expand...

It means that he is an administrator.

And very cool information Doctor Q, perhaps someday I'll even get mentioned, I'm about halfway there after three and a half years :p
 
Aww, cool...I have always wondered that.

Either way, Doctor Q, it's cool that you do this! Pretty neat! :cool:
 
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