Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2010

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by Doctor Q, Jan 4, 2010.

  1. Doctor Q Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #1
    This is the 14th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

    Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:
    2003: July
    2004: January, July
    2005: January, July
    2006: January, July
    2007: January, July
    2008: January, July
    2009: January, July

    The legend of column headings follows each chart. My comments and analysis follow the charts. Measurements were taken on January 3rd.

    Please remember that these charts and this thread are for general interest only. Please do not make posts simply to build your post count.

    Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2010

    Code:
                          Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
    Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
      1   mad jew         32,206   0.0    1      0
      2   mkrishnan       27,629   9.7    2      0
      3   Doctor Q        24,787   6.6    3      0
      4   Eidorian        23,353  17.5    7     +3
      5   Mr. Anderson    22,484   0.0    4     -1
      6   jsw             22,106   0.0    5     -1
      7   Abstract        21,563   4.5    6     -1
      8   Blue Velvet     20,337   1.8    8      0
      9   edesignuk       19,229   4.2    9      0
     10   bartelby        19,045   6.1   11     +1
     11   iGary           18,736   4.5   12     +1
     12   jessica.        18,382  41.4   37    +25
     13   ~Shard~         18,282   0.0   10     -3
     14   PlaceofDis      18,132   2.0   13     -1
     15   iBlue           16,620   7.9   16     +1
     16   wdlove          16,567   0.0   14     -2
     17   rdowns          16,363  13.8   23     +6
     18   robbieduncan    16,195   8.2   19     +1
     19   raggedjimmi     15,954   5.0   17     -2
     20   devilot         15,556   0.0   15     -5
     21   yellow          15,359   2.6   18     -3
     22   WildCowboy      14,550   1.6   21     -1
     23   Jaffa Cake      14,231   6.0   26     +3
     24   Sun Baked       14,089   2.7   24      0
     25   bousozoku       13,998   0.0   22     -3
    Code:
                          Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
    Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
     26   MacNut          13,963   4.0   25     -1
     27   sushi           13,056  10.1   33     +6
     28   Mitthrawnuruodo 12,698   2.3   27     -1
     29   alphaod         12,401  10.6   39    +10
     30   CanadaRAM       12,287   0.6   29     -1
     31   IJ Reilly       12,268   0.0   28     -3
     32   Nermal          12,236   2.8   31     -1
     33   twoodcc         12,023   5.1   34     +1
     34   eyelikeart      11,894   0.0   30     -4
     35   Rower_CPU       11,206   0.0   32     -3
     36   emw             11,059   0.0   35     -1
     37   Applespider     10,941   0.0   36     -1
     38   xUKHCx          10,891   3.2   41     +3
     39   dukebound85     10,864  11.1  ---    ---
     40   dmw007          10,597   0.0   38     -2
     41   Teh Don Ditty   10,401  11.6  ---    ---
     42   Lau             10,380   0.1   40     -2
     43   vniow           10,298   0.1   42     -1
     44   iJohnHenry      10,208  17.0  ---    ---
     45   Chundles        10,186   2.6   45      0
     46   DoFoT9          10,145  15.6  ---    ---
     47   Queso           10,134   1.4   44     -3
     48   arn              9,988   0.5   43     -5
     49   leekohler        9,976   8.1  ---    ---
     50   r.j.s            9,747  21.8  ---    ---
    Columns:
    1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
    3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership if they joined less than 6 months ago.
    5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (July 2009), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
    6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.
    Other stats and charts:
     
  2. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #2
    Length of membership

    Mean average among active posters in the Top 50: 69.3 months (5.8 years), up 2.3 months since last time. The average length of membership doesn't grow by 6 months every 6 months because the longest-term members aren't necessarily the highest posters. For example, the Top 50 now includes members who joined in 2006 through 2008 (alphaod, xUKHCx, Teh Don Ditty, iJohnHenry, DoFoT9, Queso, r.j.s) and who displaced members who joined in 2002 but just missed the Top 50 (skunk, jelloshotsrule, nagromme).

    Standard deviation: 20.6 (1.7 years)

    Among active Top 50 posters, the members with the longest memberships remain the same:
    arn, 104.9 months (8.7 years)

    Second-longest: MacNut, 96.0 months (8.0 years)

    Third-longest: edesignuk, 93.4 months (7.8 years)

    Shortest among active Top 50 members: iJohnHenry, 21.5 months (1.8 years)
    Second-shortest: alphaod, 22.8 months (1.9 years)
    The graph below shows the distribution of length of membership among the Top 50. The current distribution is in blue. The distribution from 6 months ago is in red. The descending values from 6 months ago have changed to double peaks at 5 to 6 years and 7 to 8 years.
     

    Attached Files:

  3. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #3
    Comments on the Current Top 50 Posters chart

    Changed members

    The following members joined the Top 50 list, none making the Top 25:
    dukebound85 (#39)
    Teh Don Ditty (#41)
    iJohnHenry (#44)
    DoFoT9 (#46)
    leekohler (#49)
    r.j.s (#50)​

    The following members just missed the Top 50. The are in order from highest to lowest post count.
    Eraserhead (was #49)
    skunk (was #50)
    jelloshotsrule (was #46)
    nagromme (was #47)
    EricNau (was #48)​

    Changes in rank

    Highest rise in rank: jessica. up an amazing 25 slots from #37 to #12, i.e., nearly to the Top 10!
    Next highest:
    alphaod (up 10 slots)
    rdowns and sushi (each up 6 slots)
    Eidorian and Jaffa Cake and xUKHCx (each up 3 slots)

    Losses in rank were milder than usual, with a maximum of 5 slots.

    Highest loss in rank: devilot and arn, each down 5 slots
    Next highest:
    eyelikeart (down 4 slots)​

    An unusually high number of members (7) retained their position in the Top 50 list:
    mad jew (#1 six times in a row)
    mkrishnan (#2 three times in a row)
    Doctor Q (#3 three times in a row)
    Blue Velvet (#8 five times in a row)
    edesignuk (#9 seven times in a row) <--- remarkable consistency!
    Sun Baked (#24 three times in a row)
    Chundles (#45 four times in a row)

    Eraserhead missed the Top 50 by 44 posts (0.24 posts per day, the equivalent of 1 post every 4.2 days).
    skunk missed the Top 50 by 129 posts (0.70 posts per day, or 1 post every 1.4 days).​

    Changes in the Top 10

    mad jew hasn't posted since September 4, 2008 but is still 4,577 posts ahead of #2 mkrishnan. Last time the lead was 6,353 posts.

    Doctor Q stayed at #3 while Eidorian (formerly #7) jumped into position #4, ahead of Mr. Anderson, jsw, and Abstract, who dropped from #4,#5,#6 to #5,#6,#7. Blue Velvet and edesignuk remained at #8 and #9 while bartelby moved up from #11 into the remaining Top 10 slot. ~Shard~, formerly #10, is now #13.

    Random stats

    The number of members with 20,000 or more posts stayed at 8, which surprised me. I predicted it would be 10 by now. Of the Top 50, 47 now have 10,000 or more posts. I predicted it would be 48. I predicted that it would take 9,844 posts to make the Top 50. The actual number is 9,747, so I was off by less than 1%.

    Together, the Top 50 members have made a total of 787,539 posts at MacRumors (an average of 15,751 each). I predicted it would be 798,638 (1.4% more). If they each spent an average of 40 seconds thinking about their posts, that is collectively 1 solid year of thinking.

    Posts in the last 6 months

    This section excludes members who were not in my radar 6 months ago, since I didn't track their post histories. I try to spot up-and-coming posters who might join the Top 50 before the next 6-month period.

    Highest number of posts in 6 months: jessica., 7,614 posts, 41.4 posts per day, up from 18.3 posts/day in the previous 6 months
    Next-highest:
    r.j.s (4,013 posts, 21.8 posts/day, up from 6.8)
    Eidorian (3,222 posts, 17.5 posts/day, exactly his previous rate)
    iJohnHenry (3,131 posts, 17.0 posts/day, down slightly from 17.7)

    They were the only members with over 3,000 posts in 6 months.​
    Another 4 members had post counts between 2,000 and 3,000 in 6 months: DoFoT9, rdowns, Teh Don Ditty, dukebound85

    Infrequent posters:
    These 13 members made few or no posts yet stayed in the Top 50: mad jew, Mr. Anderson, jsw, ~Shard~, wdlove, devilot, bousozoku, IJ Reilly, eyelikeart, Rower_CPU, emw, Applespider, dmw007

    Some are not around and some lurk but rarely post. Long-time high posters can take quite a while to move down the list, as wdlove has been doing since March 2007!​

    Predictions from 6 months ago

    My projections from six months ago for who would be in the Top 10 were correct for 8 of 10 members. I did better in the previous 6 months, getting 9 out of 10.

    Excluded members and posts

    MacRumors "bots" (members Macrumors, MacBytes, and DailyTunes) and banned members are excluded from my tracking. Otherwise, MacBytes would have been #20 on the Top 50, down from #15 six months ago and #14 a year ago.
     
  4. NeuralControl macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    #4
    This is a very interesting thread. How long have you been extrapolating these trends?
     
  5. r.j.s Moderator emeritus

    r.j.s

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2007
    Location:
    Texas
    #5
    It's in the first post, since July 2003.
     
  6. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #6
    I first did it on an impulse during the long Independence Day weekend in 2003, not knowing that it would become a tradition, as well as a duty, to report the latest stats and projections every 6 months for the rest of my life.
     
  7. r.j.s Moderator emeritus

    r.j.s

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2007
    Location:
    Texas
    #7
    Stats and projections? Pffft.

    I'm waiting for the trivia.

    Good work, as always, Q.
     
  8. Eidorian macrumors Penryn

    Eidorian

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2005
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    #8
    Delicious statistics as always. I'm a bit surprised by this fact.

    Exactly? Weird...
     
  9. smwatson macrumors 6502a

    smwatson

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2005
    Location:
    London, England
    #9
    I've always been more of a lurker than a poster but this interests me every year.

    Good stuff.
     
  10. joepunk macrumors 68030

    joepunk

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2004
    Location:
    a profane existence
    #10
    I'll probably never make it on that list which is fine with me :)

    How long does it take you to compile and calculate on the numbers, lists and posters?
     
  11. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2002
    Location:
    CT
    #11
    I've slacked off a bit the past 6 months but didn't lose much ground.

    edit, looks like I just knocked bousozoku out of the top 25.:eek:
     
  12. Forsaken macrumors regular

    Forsaken

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2009
    #12
    This is what I call eye candy.

    How long does it usually take to gather up and calculate all this data?
     
  13. Surely Guest

    Surely

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2007
    Location:
    Los Angeles, CA
    #13
    I was wondering when your list was coming...... always an interesting read.

    Highly doubtful I'll ever be mentioned here....
     
  14. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #14
    It takes me a few days. I do a small bit of preparation ahead of time, but I can't really get started until the 3rd since that's when I gather the raw data. Then I get out my abacus, slide rule, and ouija board and get down to business.

    I have to give up other activities for those days, like eating, sleeping, paying the bills, playing pranks on family members by dropping a Mento into their Diet Coke, and checking in with my parole officer, but doing the stats is more fun.
     
  15. techfreak85 macrumors 68040

    techfreak85

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2008
    Location:
    Places
    #15
    As I said last time, you left me off the list again Q.:p
     
  16. EricNau Moderator emeritus

    EricNau

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2005
    Location:
    San Francisco, CA
    #16
    It took me awhile, but I told you I could do it! :p
     
  17. GoCubsGo macrumors Nehalem

    GoCubsGo

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2005
    #17
    Someone should kill me now. :cool: :p
    I need a new hobby.
     
  18. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2002
    Location:
    The Bamboo Forest
    #18
    Such modesty. Congratulations! :D
     
  19. sushi Moderator emeritus

    sushi

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2002
    Location:
    キャンプスワ&#
  20. IBradMac macrumors 68000

    IBradMac

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Location:
    Ohio
    #20
    Since it says "macrumors god" under your username, does that mean you are an owner of the site? If so, I thought arn was the only owner?
     
  21. sushi Moderator emeritus

    sushi

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2002
    Location:
    キャンプスワ&#
    #21
    arn is the owner.

    There are multiple gods that assist. Doctor Q and WildCowboy for example.
     
  22. iBookG4user macrumors 604

    iBookG4user

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2006
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    #22
    It means that he is an administrator.

    And very cool information Doctor Q, perhaps someday I'll even get mentioned, I'm about halfway there after three and a half years :p
     
  23. IBradMac macrumors 68000

    IBradMac

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Location:
    Ohio
    #23
    Aww, cool...I have always wondered that.

    Either way, Doctor Q, it's cool that you do this! Pretty neat! :cool:
     
  24. sushi Moderator emeritus

    sushi

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2002
    Location:
    キャンプスワ&#
    #24
    FYI, there are 6 gods (including arn) and one Editor.

    Additionally, there are 16 moderators.
     
  25. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #25
    But only one sushi. He's badly outnumbered!
     

Share This Page