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A pretty convincing explanation

Only got a chance to skim through it, but it already makes sense. There's only one size of Pebble or Moto 360 or other competing watches, and if Apple has to cater to the entire audience, one or two models ain't going to cut it. If Apple had made a single watch of one style or size, it would've made mass production easier and probably a lot less backorder, but it would've also resulted in lesser sales as it would only appeal to a smaller target audience.
 
The part that rang most true for me was the explanation for the two week gap between preorders and launch date. If they are 'assembling to order' it would explain why it's two weeks this time, rather than the usual one week window.
 
Many thanks for sharing. The article gives a very good insight into the huge challenge facing Apple in manufacturing and supplying the Apple Watch, and goes a long way to explain what others describe as a chaotic launch.
 
If his figures are correct then things are looking very, very bad for the Apple watch.

1) According to the report Apple watch started production in January at one million units a month.
2) The watch was completely sold out until June within one hour.
3) Therefore apple sold all 5 million watches inside the first hour.
4) Over the course of the next seven days the shipping date has not moved and remains at June.

This leaves us with two possibilities:

1) Apple has hugely increased production by an order of magnitude, say 4X (unlikely) or
2) Orders have dried up.
 
That article reeks.... of logic and common sense. Thanks for posting.
 
Great breakdown of what it takes to make this happen.

and just as a reminder to all of us... somewhere, assuming in China, there are thousands of people working their butts off, for the past couple months and for the next few months, to get these put together for us. So let's just be patient and thankful for them.

I can wait until May 13-27, but still hoping for a miracle for the next couple weeks.
 
rasputin1969 said:
If his figures are correct then things are looking very, very bad for the Apple watch.

1) According to the report Apple watch started production in January at one million units a month.
2) The watch was completely sold out until June within one hour.
3) Therefore apple sold all 5 million watches inside the first hour.
4) Over the course of the next seven days the shipping date has not moved and remains at June.

This leaves us with two possibilities:

1) Apple has hugely increased production by an order of magnitude, say 4X (unlikely) or
2) Orders have dried up.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. Numbers would certainly have slowed as people see the long window for delivery and some will not order. Plus, there was always going to be a huge number (comparatively) at launch of preorders, and then the orders will naturally slow down.

Also, yes production may have been going from Jan but remember they won't all be for sales models. Think of the number of Apple Stores world wide. They all have a decent number in stock for demo units and try ons which need to be produced.

I don't think the numbers projected in this blog come close to say things are looking bad for the Watch at all!
 
Stupotpot said:
Not necessarily. Numbers would certainly have slowed as people see the long window for delivery and some will not order. Plus, there was always going to be a huge number (comparatively) at launch of preorders, and then the orders will naturally slow down.

Also, yes production may have been going from Jan but remember they won't all be for sales models. Think of the number of Apple Stores world wide. They all have a decent number in stock for demo units and try ons which need to be produced.

I don't think the numbers projected in this blog come close to say things are looking bad for the Watch at all!
Click to expand...

There are 453 apple stores. If we allow an average of 5 employees concurrently engaged in try-ons, each with 9 watches that makes 20,385 Apple watches - an inconsequential number.

If this report is accurate then I wouldn't like to be the financial officer at Apple responsible for disseminating the daily sales charts.
 
Really good read, what stuck out for me is the time frame before the next Apple watch comes out.

I'm starting to agree that we won't be seeing a new model any time soon. As the writer said would probably be some sort of software refresh and maybe emphasis on new bands.
 
rasputin1969 said:
If his figures are correct then things are looking very, very bad for the Apple watch.

1) According to the report Apple watch started production in January at one million units a month.
2) The watch was completely sold out until June within one hour.
3) Therefore apple sold all 5 million watches inside the first hour.
4) Over the course of the next seven days the shipping date has not moved and remains at June.

This leaves us with two possibilities:

1) Apple has hugely increased production by an order of magnitude, say 4X (unlikely) or
2) Orders have dried up.
Click to expand...

Like Stupotpot, I'm struggling to see how this can be possibly be conceived as "looking very, very bad for the Apple watch".

As I remember, they weren't all sold out until June within an hour. Some were, but others slipped into June more gradually (over a couple of days). So whilst there was a big initial demand which has now declined, I don't think this means "Orders have dried up". No doubt the 'June' delivery date will (for now) put many people off ordering. But once Apple start to ramp up production (and now, as the article states, they have some idea what to expect), delivery delays will be reduced as supply starts to meet demand. And I'm sure there will be demand...

EDIT - Some 38mm SS models are still showing 4-6weeks on the UK store i.e. they have not yet slipped to June. So the statement "The watch was completely sold out until June within one hour" is incorrect.
 
Last edited:
rasputin1969 said:
If his figures are correct then things are looking very, very bad for the Apple watch.

1) According to the report Apple watch started production in January at one million units a month.
2) The watch was completely sold out until June within one hour.
3) Therefore apple sold all 5 million watches inside the first hour.
4) Over the course of the next seven days the shipping date has not moved and remains at June.

This leaves us with two possibilities:

1) Apple has hugely increased production by an order of magnitude, say 4X (unlikely) or
2) Orders have dried up.
Click to expand...

I don't see how his numbers mean things are looking "very, very bad." He predicts a huge number of watches sold, and says that they are ramping up production. If anything his numbers are indicative of a very successful product.
 
smr said:
Like Stupotpot, I'm struggling to see how this can be possibly be conceived as "looking very, very bad for the Apple watch".

As I remember, they weren't all sold out until June within an hour. Some were, but others slipped into June more gradually (over a couple of days). So whilst there was a big initial demand which has now declined, I don't think this means "Orders have dried up". No doubt the 'June' delivery date will (for now) put many people off ordering. But once Apple start to ramp up production (and now, as the article states, they have some idea what to expect), delivery delays will be reduced as supply starts to meet demand. And I'm sure there will be demand...
Click to expand...

You remember incorrectly. Macrumors posted the following just one hour, three minutes after the watch went on sale

- Apple Watch Sport White 38mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport White 42mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Blue 38mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Blue 42mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Green 38mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Green 42mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Pink 38mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Pink 42mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Space Gray 38mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Space Gray 42mm: June
- Apple Watch with Sport Band: 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Classic Buckle 38mm: Delivers 4/24 to 5/8
- Apple Watch with Classic Buckle 42mm: 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Milanese Loop: 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Leather Loop: 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Modern Buckle (Brown): 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Modern Buckle (Black): 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Modern Buckle (Soft Pink): June
- Apple Watch with Modern Buckle (Blue): June
- Apple Watch with Link Bracelet Stainless Steel: 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Link Bracelet Space Gray 38mm: June
- Apple Watch with Link Bracelet Space Gray 42mm: July
- Apple Watch Edition Rose Gold: July
- Apple Watch Edition Yellow Gold: June
 
robrandtoul said:
This seems to me to be a convincing and well thought out theory that explains the differences between the Watch launch and all other Apple product launches to date.

http://carlhowe.com/blog/apple-watch-an-overnight-multi-billion-dollar-business/
Click to expand...

Great analisys. I posted something similar several hours earlier that's now slipped deep onto the 2nd page... https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1868344/

It's good to get some validation though. Thanks for sharing.

It makes perfect sense and certainly explains the lack of in-store stock... It would just idle too much inventory.
 
rasputin1969 said:
You remember incorrectly. Macrumors posted the following just one hour, three minutes after the watch went on sale

- Apple Watch Sport White 38mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport White 42mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Blue 38mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Blue 42mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Green 38mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Green 42mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Pink 38mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Pink 42mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Space Gray 38mm: June
- Apple Watch Sport Space Gray 42mm: June
- Apple Watch with Sport Band: 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Classic Buckle 38mm: Delivers 4/24 to 5/8
- Apple Watch with Classic Buckle 42mm: 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Milanese Loop: 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Leather Loop: 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Modern Buckle (Brown): 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Modern Buckle (Black): 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Modern Buckle (Soft Pink): June
- Apple Watch with Modern Buckle (Blue): June
- Apple Watch with Link Bracelet Stainless Steel: 4-6 weeks
- Apple Watch with Link Bracelet Space Gray 38mm: June
- Apple Watch with Link Bracelet Space Gray 42mm: July
- Apple Watch Edition Rose Gold: July
- Apple Watch Edition Yellow Gold: June
Click to expand...

OK, so 2/3 of models showing June, but 1/3 not. That means your statement "The watch was completely sold out until June within one hour" is wrong. If fact that data supports my statement: "Some were [sold out to June], but others slipped into June more gradually (over a couple of days)".
 
Very interesting read. My only difference of opinion would be in his built-to-order theory. I believe that Apple is smart enough to realize that at least X number of each model would be ordered during the presale and would build those X times 38 ahead of time and put them aside. It is my guess that these 38X watches comprised the available stock for the 4/24-5/8 delivery window and that from that point further, watches are being assembled per order (or rather in quantities equal to the ordered number), with band type now being the limiting factor.
 
Great article and read! Definitely feel it so easy to underestimate and realise really how difficult it really is to do what Apple does – just struggling with just University team projects of 6 people, let along run a 98k+ employee teams to make, distribute and sell multi-million dollar products.

Thanks for the post and to the author of that article :)!
 
Very logical piece of writing. Hopefully the simple minded drama queens here can now understand through the lobster origami example.
 
For anyone waiting for a sleeker more refined Apple Watch 2.0, I believe you will have a long wait. Given the challenges in ramping up the production lines for these Watches, I expect that Apple Watch 2.0 will simply be a software update to the existing core electronics with additional bands and possibly another case color.
Click to expand...

:cool:​
 
Didn't the last report say they sold about 2.3M preorders so far? If they started production in January then how are they all the way backed up til June by now? Is this 2.3M preorder number way low?
 
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