Everybody, I think it'll go something like this. Thanks to
phillc for providing the KapitalMoto link, because that site more or less proves that this is extremely realistic. Adobe's H.264 support is quite brilliant news, but in my eyes, it has everything to do with video and nothing at all to do with Flash, ironically.
First off, YouTube/Flash video rippers are really quite simple. I haven't built an automated one, but grabbing the video yourself is pathetically easy. Just load up a YouTube video and open Safari's Activity window (Cmd+Opt+A). Take a look at the resources for the page you're viewing:
See the 13.0 MB file that's still loading? That's the video file the Flash object is streaming. It's a "Flash video," that is, a .FLV file, or a video encoded in H.263, according to
winterspan. (By the way, just drag that URI from the Activity window to Safari's Downloads window to grab the movie. Then you can play it back in VLC or QT with Perian. You may also convert it with whatever utility you like that supports .FLV.)
The only thing changing with Flash Player 9 Update 3 is that the Flash object can now do the same thing it's already been doing with an H.264-encoded video file, such as a QuickTime .MOV file. If you take a look at the KapitalMoto page with Safari's Activity window, you'll see that this is indeed the case - the Flash object now streams a .mov file instead of a .flv file. With regards to playing video,
Update 3 makes Flash nothing more than a bloated QuickTime plugin, which is actually really good news...
Now, where's the brilliance? Simple. Instead of building a version of Flash for the iPhone/iPod touch just to play back "Flash video," MobileSafari could effectively bypass the need for Flash altogether by detecting the HTML element of a Flash file that streams H.264-encoded video files and
loading the QuickTime file in place of the Flash object. Heck, we could do this on the desktop if we wanted with a little JavaScript or maybe even a Safari plugin.
Of course, doing something like this is unnecessary for YouTube on iPhone/iPod touch since it has its own separate application. Another option might be something like allowing an updated YouTube application to tap into other video sites and then stream those "Flash videos" that reference an H.264 video file.
If anything, I'd guess that my previous proposal would be more likely, but the point is that Adobe's H.264 support will really make things interesting if it catches on. Potentially this means that
Apple doesn't need Flash on the iPhone/iPod touch. Well, not for videos anyway.
This makes a lot of sense considering the amount of development time Apple has given to WebKit - why build an interface in Flash if you can build it in HTML/CSS/JavaScript? There are definitely Flash-based interfaces that could never be built with the current versions of HTML, CSS, & JS, but if Safari supports the right number of future improvements to the latter three languages, such as
animation or the <canvas> tag, then there's an even greater chance of making Flash obsolete.
Maybe I'm crazy, but this move might very well make the web less Flash-dependent than it's been since the advent of .FLV. Meanwhile, as detailed above, Flash's most useful bits continue to be replicated in HTML/CSS/JS + hardware support. Apple is certainly taking aim at eventually eliminating the need for Flash altogether.