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Alleged Intel source: "Apple scares us more than AMD"
- Thread starter Colstan
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I doubt that Apple is interested in entering into the server hardware market again, but there are signs that it is reducing its use of external cloud services in its own data centres: https://www.imore.com/apples-recent-cloud-hires-hint-major-investment-infrastructure. Apple was reportedly paying AWS $30million per month in 2019.
I could conceive of them using some Apple Silicon variant from the MacPro in their data centres to run specific workloads, but it seems more likely that they would use commodity hardware based on x86 or ARM (at least in the short term), on which to run their own container-based services.
Apple could do what Amazon did and generate their own ARM-based servers for internal use, similar to AWS Graviton 2, but I don't think Apple has plans to become an IaaS or PasS provider and compete against AWS, Microsoft & Google in the cloud infrastructure space. It's a very competitive market and latecomers (e.g. Oracle) have a hard job to get any market penetration with enterprise customers.
When I posted this I was concerned that it wouldn't get much traffic. That was an unnecessary concern. Let me first say that I appreciate everyone who has contributed to this thread, it has generated a good discussion, regardless of your stance on the issue, and I thank you all for that.
The reason that I mentioned Ed Coligan is for the same reason that @cmaier points out about the current situation. Back when Palm was pushing their version of the smartphone, the market was composed of Palm and some generic PDAs running Windows Mobile with cellular capability bolted on. The iPhone changed everything. Everyone immediately followed Apple's lead and now Windows Mobile is defunct and Palm no longer exists. (And I say this as someone who very much liked Palm and owned many Palm OS PDAs.)
We could be seeing something similar happening in the CPU space. Intel isn't concerned that Apple will suddenly abandon veritcal integration and start selling Apple Silicon to other PC makers. They are concerned that Apple will develop high-performance ARM processors, which will show the other PC manufactures that they don't need Intel. I'm not saying that this will definitely happen, just that Intel should be concerned that it could happen.
Regardless, for its part, perhaps Intel will react with agility. However, the Romans didn't see the Visigoths coming until they were at the city gates. (And if Apple are the Visigoths, then I suppose AMD would be the Vandals.)
The reason that I mentioned Ed Coligan is for the same reason that @cmaier points out about the current situation. Back when Palm was pushing their version of the smartphone, the market was composed of Palm and some generic PDAs running Windows Mobile with cellular capability bolted on. The iPhone changed everything. Everyone immediately followed Apple's lead and now Windows Mobile is defunct and Palm no longer exists. (And I say this as someone who very much liked Palm and owned many Palm OS PDAs.)
We could be seeing something similar happening in the CPU space. Intel isn't concerned that Apple will suddenly abandon veritcal integration and start selling Apple Silicon to other PC makers. They are concerned that Apple will develop high-performance ARM processors, which will show the other PC manufactures that they don't need Intel. I'm not saying that this will definitely happen, just that Intel should be concerned that it could happen.
The fellow who hosts the video, which is where that quote came from, had very accurate details about Big Navi long before it was released. After RDNA2 was announced, he revealed that source to be Rick Bergman, AMD's VP of Computing and Graphics group. Tom has high-level sources throughout the industry, Apple being the one exception.
Regardless, for its part, perhaps Intel will react with agility. However, the Romans didn't see the Visigoths coming until they were at the city gates. (And if Apple are the Visigoths, then I suppose AMD would be the Vandals.)
Wait - rick is back at AMD?! I worked with him at two other companies (well, AMD was one of them. Other was Exponential) and didn’t realize he wasn’t at Synaptics anymore. Cool.
(Seems like some of my old friends and colleagues have gone back. Wonder if they’re looking for an EDA/chip designer who hasn’t thought about transistors in 14 years
But they are taking baby steps in that direction.
Xcode Cloud is going to be GitHub CodeSpaces for Apple development. Prices are unknown at this time, but the world is getting very interesting.
Apple Mac Pro Wheels Kit
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Ahhh - no - US$699
Even worse here in Australia - $1,049.
This x 10. Disruption to the way it’s done is almost always great for us consumers. Apple has thrown a modestly sized wrench into the x86 machine. It’s up to the competition to return service by thinking outside the box (Intel isn’t going anywhere but their market PE may definitely slump)
The performance to power consumption, I suspect, is a great worry to them all. This is gen1 for the M series. If it's power/performance ratio is truly scalable, it’s really going to put pressure on intel (and others) to come up with their own disruptive leap.
Also, I think Apple pulling all cpus in house makes the engineering loop efficiency difficult to match. Part of innovation and new product introductions is the ultra critical ‘cost + time + potential market viability’ formula. Apple jhas made that formula more efficient. That probably translates into an ability to reach further out with new features and products.
The performance to power consumption, I suspect, is a great worry to them all. This is gen1 for the M series. If it's power/performance ratio is truly scalable, it’s really going to put pressure on intel (and others) to come up with their own disruptive leap.
Also, I think Apple pulling all cpus in house makes the engineering loop efficiency difficult to match. Part of innovation and new product introductions is the ultra critical ‘cost + time + potential market viability’ formula. Apple jhas made that formula more efficient. That probably translates into an ability to reach further out with new features and products.
The late 2020/very early 2021 up spike was a rising tide floating nearly all boats. Off these highs down to their lows several weeks back, Intel lost about 17% value while AMD lost 25%. AMD worse off? No. A PE check tells this story. PE generally (though definitely not precisely) is a gauge on growth outlook sentiment.
Intel has a PE of 13
AMD has a PE of 34
PE formula: stock price/earnings per share.
This suggests AMD’s growth expectation is far beyond Intel (or AMD is way overpriced/Intel way underpriced). For example, Tesla has a HUGE PE due to the expectation it will ultimately grow revenue WAY!!! above average. Amazon has a high PE (about 80) based on significant growth upside sentiment. FYI, Apple and FB are 28, Microsoft 34, Google 32. These PE numbers generally indicate an expectation they’ll definitely grow better than average. Intel’s PE of 13? in tech with inflated PEs normalized? Intel is not expected to grow much —and suggests above average concern it could fall and stay lower for extended period of time.
Usually PEs will be in the same ball park of others in their same industry. United and Delta, HP and Dell, Ford and GM etc. The gulf between Inteland AMD should give pause about Intel (or it’s a great buy. Intel with a PE in the ballpark of AMD means Intel’s stock will be selling for 135).
Side note rant ? - Apple is a unique entity. Wall Street tries to put a ‘this industry’ PE on it. But Apple is undeniably peerless. As such and Imho, Apple stock is significantly undervalued. But a good chunk of Wall Street doesn’t see it that way.
Apple can take up 20% of the market and eat up 80% of the industry's profits like they do in mobile.
Yup, he's even got his own fancy page on AMD's executive team list.
Bergman Bio
He's also been doing a lot of the product introductions during AMD keynotes. I obviously have no inside information, but the impression I get is that he seems to be second only to Lisa Su in the company's hierarchy.
Nice guy. Not involved in anything technical, though. The idea of AMD keynotes makes me laugh though.
It's not Photoshop, but it's pretty good. Imagine in a few years when even software like Final Cut Pro are fully online and all you need as a computer is anything that can run a browser. Even highly demanding video games can be played on the browser even today with projects like Stadia and GeForce Now. In a few years, who will feel the need to buy Intel's Core i13 or whatever?
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The downside presumably being that will require a massive upgrade to internet infrastructure to maintain the speeds/ bandwidth necessary? Particularly outside of the usual areas that already have current or next gen fibre and 5G connections available.