You're right, of course. And I like the idea of a thumbdrive-sized STB!
But AppleTV being so far behind is actually a very good thing!
You see, STBs are mainstream now.
They're replacing Blu-Ray players, which, in turn, replaced DVD players.
STBs are a large "space" now, as the marketeers like to call it.
Because of this, Apple no longer sees AppleTV as an experiment anymore.
The market now is flooded with many competitors: Amazon, Google, Roku, etc.
And we all know what Apple does to a market that it previously didn't own, don't we ....
Yes, that's right: as you read this, Apple is putting the finishing touches on an
STB that will blow everyone else's out of the water in terms of capability, choice & ease-of-use.
And at just $99, everyone & his cousin Joe will buy one.
Maybe - and maybe not. Maybe they won't get the content deals they seek and will just update their Apple TV with a new interface and open up an appstore. Which would still be more than fine and something we'd all welcome.
Given their resources and the huge appstore - you really have to wonder why they still haven't opened up AppleTV to an appstore allowing users to use their phones as controllers. Even if they wanted to revolutionize the TV industry with another box later - they could still do this "today."
I don't think anyone would balk at having two types/levels of Apple TV.