Sometimes one of the main things is, how many years will it run new games smoothly?
Well, I can play 2012 games on my 21" 6770m at slightly higher quality settings and slightly higher framerates than I could play 2006 games on my 17" X1600.
Based on past performance, I expect that any games coming out in the next year will play smoothly (25+ fps) at high quality levels. Games in the next 2 years should play smoothly at medium quality levels. After 3 years, they'll only play acceptably at the lowest quality levels, and you'll start to run up against minimum system requirements.
That's a very loose guideline though, and depends greatly on the kinds of games you play, and the company making them.