Analyst: Apple Watch launch was 'botched'

Discussion in 'Apple Watch' started by Kavier, May 1, 2015.

  1. Kavier, May 1, 2015
    Last edited: May 1, 2015

    Kavier macrumors 6502a


    Feb 1, 2010
    Raleigh, NC
  2. leenak macrumors 68020

    Mar 10, 2011
  3. zmunkz macrumors 6502a


    Nov 4, 2007
    Botch-gate!!! They're launching it wrong!! #FirstWorldProblems!!!!!!

  4. seamor0512 macrumors member

    Apr 25, 2015
  5. dexterbell macrumors 6502a

    Jan 29, 2015
    Well calling the iPad a flop is moronic. It's sold around 250 million units in 5 years, that's no flop. Too soon to tell on the Watch but early sales indications aren't very good and if only 7% of iPhone users say they are interested in one, that's quite dismal.
  6. Black Belt macrumors 6502a

    Black Belt

    Jun 15, 2007
    They sold more in one day that all the other smartwatches sold over two years. I don't see how that is anything remotely like a flop.
  7. furam90 macrumors regular

    Jun 15, 2010
    It certainly isn't a revolutionary product... After playing with it after a few days it's clear this is definitely a first gen device-- almost feels like a beta device actually. It attempts to do everything, but ends up doing nothing well.

    I think Apple should've waited until they had better sensor and battery tech, and could make it a bit thinner before they released it to the public. I can't really see that many people buying this except tech nerds like myself--yet. Really disappointed in the fitness aspect of the device, impressed with the notifications though.

    I don't see mass adoption until Apple Watch 3 or 4... Right now there are still too many kinks for the price.
  8. Bromeo macrumors regular

    Mar 6, 2015
    Near Seattle
    USA Today? They lost their credibility for my reading some time ago. Case in point, the writer trots out "flop" and "it gets worse" instead of providing just the facts and letting the reader think critically for themselves. This looks like an opinion piece.
  9. Sodner macrumors 68020


    Jan 12, 2011
    Pittsburgh, PA
    This! That article is a joke.
  10. Ctguy macrumors member

    Jul 31, 2010
    I've visited Apple Store couple times to tried on the watch and noticed that very few interested in Apple watch
  11. Bromeo macrumors regular

    Mar 6, 2015
    Near Seattle
    I expect Apple watch interest to accelerate as people see them in the wild and hear word-of-mouth how they work.

    Case in point, my Android Wear watch, which I use for software development, has shown me, and those around me, real-world use cases for a smart watch. Word of this has spread amongst neighbors and friends, who then said they'd wait for Apple to come up with something that just works, or for Google to improve Android Wear a bit. So, interest is out there.

    The last few times I have visited various Apple stores, the Watch table always has had a throng of people around it, excitedly pointing and talking. The try-on table was also likewise packed like a big family dinner.

    If I could fault Apple on anything is not making it abundantly clear that while there was some initial stock, once that was shipped out to customers, watches would be essentially built-to-order using JIIT lean manufacturing. I suppose they could have marketed that as "your watch is built just for you and shipped from our factories as soon as it is ready" then show factory worker meticulously assembling watch components. I'm sure they thought about all this, though, and chanced an approach that seems the best bet at the time.
  12. GrimmsGirl macrumors 6502


    Sep 22, 2013
    The didn't call the iPad a flop, they called it a fad. They called ApplePay a flop.

    "The iPad may have been a fad. But it’s the Apple Watch that’s looking to be the company’s second flop in a row."

    "This is the second straight early flop for the company – following Apple Pay."
  13. SixtyK macrumors 6502a


    Jun 25, 2013
    Well that makes much more sense then... :confused:
  14. Kavier thread starter macrumors 6502a


    Feb 1, 2010
    Raleigh, NC
    I noticed this as well when I went to try one on, but I have to say I love mine.
  15. jonfarr macrumors 6502a


    Jun 29, 2012
    I think that is because people aren't interested in things they can try in person at the store and not walk out with. Its a turn off. If these things were in stock the stores would be packed and lines everywhere for months like with iPhones.
  16. bluecow macrumors regular

    Apr 23, 2015
    Flop can only really be defined by matching sales to expectation and business costs. Apple TV is not really considered a flop, because Apple never set high expectations for it.

    Apple knows this is a product that is part of an emerging category filled with problems. They know it is an expensive new gadget that not everyone needs. They know it a watch with a battery that lasts less than a day is far from perfect. They know it will take time to change the category and increase adoption rates. With that said, I'm sure they understood it would take time to grow and had the expectation that for a good period, this would just be targeted at early adopters.

    With that said. Is the category potential really here? Can they lead the category with a device like this at $400 up? I'm guessing it will take a couple years to know if this is a flop or "botched" or whatever.

    Same goes with Apple Pay. A completely different category requiring a complete change in user habits. With that said, adoption does seem pretty darn slow here.
  17. GLS macrumors 6502

    Jun 26, 2010
    So roughly 120 million iPhone 6's have been sold to date. If "only" 8.4 million or so Watches are sold..say the rest of this calendar is that dismal?
  18. mojolicious macrumors 68000


    Mar 18, 2014
    Sarf London
    The article makes two points:

    Firstly, that USB state that the launch was 'somewhat botched'.

    Secondly, that analysts are disappointed by the news that "just 7% of the 430 million people carrying iPhone 5 and 6s is likely to buy an Apple Watch". And "Investors were counting on the watch flying off the shelves to give the stock momentum. The watch was supposed to account for 40% of the company’s fiscal 2016 profit growth".

    The first point is hard to disagree with, and while the statement "the buzz around the watch has been snuffed out by delays in shipment, and the requirement of appointments and the inability to buy the product immediately when emotions run high in the store" is rather hyperbolic – 'snuffed out'? – it's still fundamentally true.

    The second point just shows how stupid analysts can be. We have no idea of Apple's hopes for first gen Watch sales, but I can't believe they wouldn't be overjoyed if they managed to shift 20m Watches in the first year (ie ~5% of the iPhone 5 and better user base). If 7% of iPhone users state that they're 'likely' to buy a Watch then they're well on their way to 20m sales.

    Even if we pretend that money was no object, a smartwatch is fundamentally different to a mobile phone. The latter is now ubiquitous (and was close to ubiquitous, if not necessarily in 'smart phone' form, when the iPhone was first introduced). The former is entering a market with low adoption rates and has to overcome the reservations of people who aren't in the habit of wearing a watch, and also has to function as a piece of jewellery.

    The Watch appeals to a small subset of iPhone users, and I don't think Apple had any misconceptions that it would be on the wrist of every fifth iPhone user within the next decade. And long before it reaches 20% penetration it will run into the fashion-related issue that not everyone wants to be seen in the same watch, which I guess can only be overcome by Apple diving deeper into the fashion mire and issuing two, three or more very distinct Watch styles.
  19. Cuyler macrumors 6502

    Jun 16, 2009
    Oh no!.. that's a mere 30 million watches sold # no way can Apple recover from this fiasco. :rolleyes:
  20. frankdogg macrumors 6502


    Mar 24, 2011
    Mid-Wilshire LA
    I remember people complaining about the iPhone and only have EDGE then 3G data and what not as they texted away on their "sidekicks"
  21. Chupa Chupa macrumors G5

    Chupa Chupa

    Jul 16, 2002
    There are some logical flaws in this analysis but this part is true:

    Rather than being able to sprint out of the launch gate, the AW is hobbling because of a self-induced injury. There is simply no way for Apple to capture impulsive purchases -- ordering for July is not impulsive. Plenty of time to consider the buy and cancel.

    Any unbiased person has to recognize this launch has not be smooth; that Apple could have, should have, been much smoother given the very public, expensive lead up to the launch.

    But I don't think the watch is a "flop." That is silly. A new product like this needs time to build traction, very much like the original iPod. And there is a positive to Apple having no stock -- more time to improve the firmware before major exposure to the non-geek public. Also more time for apps to develop.
  22. Mac 128 macrumors 603

    Mac 128

    Apr 16, 2015
    And then what happens next year? How does Apple make all those people upgrade? Let's say they add another 30 million watches next year between upgrades and new adopters ... That's only 60 million watches in two years. Those aren't even iPod numbers. And what if nobody else decides they need an Watch to go with their iPhone 7. Then so much for the next big thing from Apple.
  23. PLamarine macrumors 6502


    Jun 12, 2009
    Central MA
  24. whatos macrumors 6502a

    Apr 15, 2015
    Maranello Italy / California USA
    Apple has become such a success they're bound to draw criticism from those who write about them for a living. No one can point to Apple and claim their running out of money or ideas. History reveals a company that's at the top of its game, a leader in its industry, is one that draws heavy scrutiny... that's just how it is.

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