Analyst: Apple Watch launch was 'botched'

zmunkz

macrumors 6502a
Nov 4, 2007
920
228
Botch-gate!!! They're launching it wrong!! #FirstWorldProblems!!!!!!

*barf*
 

dexterbell

macrumors 6502a
Jan 29, 2015
855
16
Well calling the iPad a flop is moronic. It's sold around 250 million units in 5 years, that's no flop. Too soon to tell on the Watch but early sales indications aren't very good and if only 7% of iPhone users say they are interested in one, that's quite dismal.
 

Black Belt

macrumors 6502a
Jun 15, 2007
753
423
California
They sold more in one day that all the other smartwatches sold over two years. I don't see how that is anything remotely like a flop.
 
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furam90

macrumors 6502
Jun 15, 2010
251
230
It certainly isn't a revolutionary product... After playing with it after a few days it's clear this is definitely a first gen device-- almost feels like a beta device actually. It attempts to do everything, but ends up doing nothing well.

I think Apple should've waited until they had better sensor and battery tech, and could make it a bit thinner before they released it to the public. I can't really see that many people buying this except tech nerds like myself--yet. Really disappointed in the fitness aspect of the device, impressed with the notifications though.

I don't see mass adoption until Apple Watch 3 or 4... Right now there are still too many kinks for the price.
 

Bromeo

macrumors regular
Mar 6, 2015
199
108
Near Seattle
USA Today? They lost their credibility for my reading some time ago. Case in point, the writer trots out "flop" and "it gets worse" instead of providing just the facts and letting the reader think critically for themselves. This looks like an opinion piece.
 

Ctguy

macrumors member
Jul 31, 2010
69
10
I've visited Apple Store couple times to tried on the watch and noticed that very few interested in Apple watch
 

Bromeo

macrumors regular
Mar 6, 2015
199
108
Near Seattle
I expect Apple watch interest to accelerate as people see them in the wild and hear word-of-mouth how they work.

Case in point, my Android Wear watch, which I use for software development, has shown me, and those around me, real-world use cases for a smart watch. Word of this has spread amongst neighbors and friends, who then said they'd wait for Apple to come up with something that just works, or for Google to improve Android Wear a bit. So, interest is out there.

The last few times I have visited various Apple stores, the Watch table always has had a throng of people around it, excitedly pointing and talking. The try-on table was also likewise packed like a big family dinner.

If I could fault Apple on anything is not making it abundantly clear that while there was some initial stock, once that was shipped out to customers, watches would be essentially built-to-order using JIIT lean manufacturing. I suppose they could have marketed that as "your watch is built just for you and shipped from our factories as soon as it is ready" then show factory worker meticulously assembling watch components. I'm sure they thought about all this, though, and chanced an approach that seems the best bet at the time.
 

GrimmsGirl

macrumors 6502
Sep 22, 2013
342
27
Well calling the iPad a flop is moronic. It's sold around 250 million units in 5 years, that's no flop. Too soon to tell on the Watch but early sales indications aren't very good and if only 7% of iPhone users say they are interested in one, that's quite dismal.
The didn't call the iPad a flop, they called it a fad. They called ApplePay a flop.



"The iPad may have been a fad. But it’s the Apple Watch that’s looking to be the company’s second flop in a row."

"This is the second straight early flop for the company – following Apple Pay."
 

jonfarr

macrumors 6502a
Jun 29, 2012
716
135
Portland
I've visited Apple Store couple times to tried on the watch and noticed that very few interested in Apple watch
I think that is because people aren't interested in things they can try in person at the store and not walk out with. Its a turn off. If these things were in stock the stores would be packed and lines everywhere for months like with iPhones.
 
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bluecow

macrumors regular
Apr 23, 2015
140
2
Flop can only really be defined by matching sales to expectation and business costs. Apple TV is not really considered a flop, because Apple never set high expectations for it.

Apple knows this is a product that is part of an emerging category filled with problems. They know it is an expensive new gadget that not everyone needs. They know it a watch with a battery that lasts less than a day is far from perfect. They know it will take time to change the category and increase adoption rates. With that said, I'm sure they understood it would take time to grow and had the expectation that for a good period, this would just be targeted at early adopters.

With that said. Is the category potential really here? Can they lead the category with a device like this at $400 up? I'm guessing it will take a couple years to know if this is a flop or "botched" or whatever.

Same goes with Apple Pay. A completely different category requiring a complete change in user habits. With that said, adoption does seem pretty darn slow here.
 

GLS

macrumors 6502
Jun 26, 2010
360
105
Well calling the iPad a flop is moronic. It's sold around 250 million units in 5 years, that's no flop. Too soon to tell on the Watch but early sales indications aren't very good and if only 7% of iPhone users say they are interested in one, that's quite dismal.
So roughly 120 million iPhone 6's have been sold to date. If "only" 8.4 million or so Watches are sold..say the rest of this calendar year...how is that dismal?
 

mojolicious

macrumors 68000
Mar 18, 2014
1,561
310
Sarf London
The article makes two points:

Firstly, that USB state that the launch was 'somewhat botched'.

Secondly, that analysts are disappointed by the news that "just 7% of the 430 million people carrying iPhone 5 and 6s is likely to buy an Apple Watch". And "Investors were counting on the watch flying off the shelves to give the stock momentum. The watch was supposed to account for 40% of the company’s fiscal 2016 profit growth".

The first point is hard to disagree with, and while the statement "the buzz around the watch has been snuffed out by delays in shipment, and the requirement of appointments and the inability to buy the product immediately when emotions run high in the store" is rather hyperbolic – 'snuffed out'? – it's still fundamentally true.

The second point just shows how stupid analysts can be. We have no idea of Apple's hopes for first gen Watch sales, but I can't believe they wouldn't be overjoyed if they managed to shift 20m Watches in the first year (ie ~5% of the iPhone 5 and better user base). If 7% of iPhone users state that they're 'likely' to buy a Watch then they're well on their way to 20m sales.

Even if we pretend that money was no object, a smartwatch is fundamentally different to a mobile phone. The latter is now ubiquitous (and was close to ubiquitous, if not necessarily in 'smart phone' form, when the iPhone was first introduced). The former is entering a market with low adoption rates and has to overcome the reservations of people who aren't in the habit of wearing a watch, and also has to function as a piece of jewellery.

The Watch appeals to a small subset of iPhone users, and I don't think Apple had any misconceptions that it would be on the wrist of every fifth iPhone user within the next decade. And long before it reaches 20% penetration it will run into the fashion-related issue that not everyone wants to be seen in the same watch, which I guess can only be overcome by Apple diving deeper into the fashion mire and issuing two, three or more very distinct Watch styles.
 

Cuyler

macrumors 6502
Jun 16, 2009
256
3
Chicago
Remember all the talk about iPhone users rushing to buy matching watches? That’s not likely either, says UBS. Just 7% of the 430 million people carrying iPhone 5 and 6s is likely to buy an Apple Watch, UBS says.
Oh no!.. that's a mere 30 million watches sold # no way can Apple recover from this fiasco. :rolleyes:
 

Chupa Chupa

macrumors G5
Jul 16, 2002
14,834
7,394
There are some logical flaws in this analysis but this part is true:

UBS says Apple “somewhat botched” the watch’s launch. The buzz around the watch has been snuffed out by delays in shipment, and the requirement of appointments and the inability to buy the product immediately when emotions run high in the store.
Rather than being able to sprint out of the launch gate, the AW is hobbling because of a self-induced injury. There is simply no way for Apple to capture impulsive purchases -- ordering for July is not impulsive. Plenty of time to consider the buy and cancel.

Any unbiased person has to recognize this launch has not be smooth; that Apple could have, should have, been much smoother given the very public, expensive lead up to the launch.

But I don't think the watch is a "flop." That is silly. A new product like this needs time to build traction, very much like the original iPod. And there is a positive to Apple having no stock -- more time to improve the firmware before major exposure to the non-geek public. Also more time for apps to develop.
 

Mac 128

macrumors 603
Apr 16, 2015
5,360
2,927
Oh no!.. that's a mere 30 million watches sold # no way can Apple recover from this fiasco. :rolleyes:
And then what happens next year? How does Apple make all those people upgrade? Let's say they add another 30 million watches next year between upgrades and new adopters ... That's only 60 million watches in two years. Those aren't even iPod numbers. And what if nobody else decides they need an Watch to go with their iPhone 7. Then so much for the next big thing from Apple.
 

whatos

macrumors 6502a
Apple has become such a success they're bound to draw criticism from those who write about them for a living. No one can point to Apple and claim their running out of money or ideas. History reveals a company that's at the top of its game, a leader in its industry, is one that draws heavy scrutiny... that's just how it is.
 

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