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Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
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Apple will announce its quarterly earnings for fiscal Q1 2014 next week on January 27, 2014, and in advance of the earnings report both professional and amateur analysts are releasing their iPhone sales estimates for the holiday quarter. Apple had two new iPhones, the iPhone 5s and the iPhone 5c, in its product lineup during the quarter, and supply of the phones was fairly strong after some significant early shortages of the iPhone 5s.

dewitt-iphone-estimate-q1-2014.png
As reported by Philip Elmer-Dewitt of Fortune, the iPhone sales consensus among 27 professionals and 17 amateurs is a record 55.3 million units, up 16% from fiscal Q1 2013 when Apple set its current record of 47.8 million units. The average sales estimate among amateurs was 57.1 million units, while professionals were slightly lower with 54.1 million.

Estimates for the quarter are relatively narrow, with only 9.7 million units separating the highest individual estimate of 59.73 million from Faizal Kara of the The Braeburn Group from the lowest estimate of 50 million by Ilari Scheinin, also of The Braeburn Group. This differs from last year when the gap between the highest and lowest estimates was 20 million.

Results for the iPad also are expected to be strong, as Apple introduced two new iPads early in the quarter and dropped the price on the original iPad mini. Early indicators from Black Friday and Christmas Day suggest sales of the iPad Air and iPad mini were robust. Sales of the Retina iPad mini likely trailed the other iPad models as supply was constrained for the first few weeks after the device's launch. Apple does not, however, break down sales by model in its official announcement, so there will not be any definitive information about which models were most popular among consumers.

Article Link: Analysts Estimate Apple Sold Record 55.3 Million iPhones in 2013 Holiday Quarter
 

Wuiffi

macrumors 6502a
Oct 6, 2011
686
78
Can you imagine, if they only sold 54 million (+12.5%)?!
Their share would probably drop 5% .... :confused:
 

FriednTested

macrumors 6502
Jan 13, 2014
399
77
And another random impossible estimate. Now if Apple might not have sold that much be prepared for Apple is doomed stories and the stocks will take another plunge for no reason. Good job Analysts.
 

Steelseries

macrumors member
Aug 2, 2013
60
0
I just bought an iPhone 5S. I try to buy on the "S" generation of iPhone because it feels like the 5S is the complete version of the iPhone 5, same with the 4 and the 4S. Just an opinion though, buy a phone when you need it.
 

szw-mapple fan

macrumors 68020
Jul 28, 2012
2,433
2,504
That's half the sales of iPod touches throughout history.:eek:

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I just bought an iPhone 5S. I try to buy on the "S" generation of iPhone because it feels like the 5S is the complete version of the iPhone 5, same with the 4 and the 4S. Just an opinion though, buy a phone when you need it.

I agree. The only downside would be a slightly older design(but still stellar).
 

iZac

macrumors 68020
Apr 28, 2003
2,230
1,622
Shanghai
Does Apple set their own guidance for sales figures, or just revenue?

Also notice the rapid falloff off 5 sales in the March quarter '13 compared to the March '12 for the 4S. I guess this is an unfortunate consequence of faster rollouts to new territories. It gives a great spike in the Dec quarters, but is comparatively low for the rest of the year. - not that selling +30,000,000 phones a quarter is in any way slow!
 

haruhiko

macrumors 603
Sep 29, 2009
5,793
4,431
People always say that Apple is losing, but they only sold 7.4M iPhones in 2009 before Android got any serious traction and now with such fierce competition they're expected to have sold 55M iPhones.. how is that losing?
 

lolkthxbai

macrumors 65816
May 7, 2011
1,400
472
Apple sold record number of iPhones for the 2013 holiday, say analyst. We expect to hear from Apple soon at their quarterly financial call.

In other news, Apple is doomed. :D
 

ghost187

macrumors 6502a
Mar 18, 2010
965
2,042
This means if they sold under 55M stock will tank (-5% to -10%)

55M-59.9M stock price will remain stable (2-3% in either direction, probably down).

60M+ It will shoot up (+5%, but not as much as it deserves).

65M-70M, APPL opens back up at 700!!!
 

KdParker

macrumors 601
Oct 1, 2010
4,793
998
Everywhere
I just bought an iPhone 5S. I try to buy on the "S" generation of iPhone because it feels like the 5S is the complete version of the iPhone 5, same with the 4 and the 4S. Just an opinion though, buy a phone when you need it.

I've moved myself into the new upgrade every year, by using staggard upgrades on my account. We will see how long that will last, but it is working so far.
 

jayducharme

macrumors 601
Jun 22, 2006
4,077
4,312
The thick of it
I'll be curious to see what the sales breakdowns were. If supplies of the 5s were constrained (probably on just the silver and gold models), the slack would have to be picked up somewhere. I wonder if the 5c did well after all....
 

thelookingglass

macrumors 68000
Apr 27, 2005
1,985
433
I'll be curious to see what the sales breakdowns were. If supplies of the 5s were constrained (probably on just the silver and gold models), the slack would have to be picked up somewhere. I wonder if the 5c did well after all....

There was data that showed the 5c as either the 2nd or 3rd bestselling phone at all of the major carriers in the US. It did just fine. Not as well as the 5s, but probably well enough to achieve what Apple sought to achieve with the 5c.
 

TallManNY

macrumors 601
Nov 5, 2007
4,430
1,272
That's a lot of phones.
So what is Apple going to do with all the cash coming in? Oh, I know, sit on it and make 1% interest!
Just kidding, I know they are doing stock buy backs and dividends. But with the amount of revenue this Holiday quarter is going to bring in, the cash pile is going to grow. And while China Mobile may "only" be ordering a million phones a month, those orders might spike at Chinese New Year, which is this quarter. That should smooth things out a bit for Apple.

I can't wait to find out how the Mac Pro is selling. Interesting if there is huge demand or if the shortages is just that it is a hard device to make in volume.
 

pubwvj

macrumors 68000
Oct 1, 2004
1,895
200
Mountains of Vermont
I almost never see any other smart phones so I'm not too surprised. The pie charts say that other makers have a significant portion of the market but I don't see them out in the world. One report said that the other manufacturers numbers are based on production quantities but Apple's number's are based on actual quantities sold. In reality produced or shipped is a smaller number than sold for most companies... :) That could explain the discrepancy of why we see iPhones everywhere and very few of the others.
 
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