Analysts Predict Flat iPad Sales for Q3 2014, Slight Increase in iPhone Sales

[pedromcm.pm]

No they don't, and never will, as you cannot define best.
They probably don't use the BEST in anything.

Best screens?
Best SSD's?
Best CPU's ?
Best Graphics cards?

What say Steve Jobs thought was best for him was not best for others.
Likewise what I think it best for me is not best for you.

Slapping a laptop GPU in a 2000+ dollar machine on your desk (iMac) for me it not best. It's dam shoddy and poor.

No. They make the best overall laptop, the best tablet, the best phone, the best "mobile workstation", the best platforms.

Making an AIO that bitchslaps every single AIO from every single OEM on every speclist while charging the same or less is amazing.

So they, they slapped the most powerful GPU that anybody could slap on an usable AIO. Dell couldn't do it. DO they even use something other than intel HD GPUs at all? Doing that, with such a small (volume) device is great.

There's some impressive thermodynamic study in there. But then again, for you, a product is just the sum of it's parts. But even for such limited view, Apple does some incredible and unmatched things that anyone with at least minimum knowledge of design and/or engineering and/or science can admire.

Of course, by your post, I honestly do not thing that you fit in that description. Maybe you do something else and other products fit you better. That's fine.

But then again, why are you even posting here?

 

[cdmoore74]

This I do agree with. A larger iphone will definitely increase sales. But people will question the need to buy another ipad. Apple needs to totally revamp the look of the ipad. Regular customers aren't going to pluck down $500 plus for little updates.

 

[Piggie]

No. They make the best overall laptop, the best tablet, the best phone, the best "mobile workstation", the best platforms.

Making an AIO that bitchslaps every single AIO from every single OEM on every speclist while charging the same or less is amazing.

So they, they slapped the most powerful GPU that anybody could slap on an usable AIO. Dell couldn't do it. DO they even use something other than intel HD GPUs at all? Doing that, with such a small (volume) device is great.

There's some impressive thermodynamic study in there. But then again, for you, a product is just the sum of it's parts. But even for such limited view, Apple does some incredible and unmatched things that anyone with at least minimum knowledge of design and/or engineering and/or science can admire.

Of course, by your post, I honestly do not thing that you fit in that description. Maybe you do something else and other products fit you better. That's fine.

But then again, why are you even posting here?

You are still totally missing the point.
Your best is not my best and visa versa

That is like me saying this is the best car. Best for what?
Best for me?
Best for you?

The only real was you could even try and do a "best" would be to take the very best available components, put them all in a case and make them work together with an OS

You could to some degree say "I have the best consumer components on the market"
Even then we could still argue about best.

Perhaps my Nvidea Titan Black may not be your best as you are an AMD GPU perhaps.

But say we did agree, then we could still argue that the OS controlling this is not the best for either of us.

There is no such statement as Apple makes the best anything as it's simply not the case, never has been, never will be.

Nice yes, Best never as there is never one best.

 

[Yojimbo007]

iPad's big problem right now is its OS. iOS is showing major signs of problems at this point, particularly for a large device that has aspirations to be a productivity device, and not just an e-reader, game playing, facetime device. It's not even clear if Apple themselves are optimizing their OS for the thing. Look at how awkward iOS7 was on it.

It is fairly common these days (caveat: in my circles) to see people look at their tablets and go 'I don't really know why I bought this', and go back to their phone or computer.

My children love them, as they get to play some fun and educational games on their iPads. I love reading on them. But for what Apple is charging for them, it is hard not to see the value proposition in something like the Kindle Fire line for *that* purpose.

But I'm heavily tied into the Apple ecosystem, so we won't be switching. We won't be buying a new one for some time (if ever) however.

Before ipad i used to spend 5 to 6 hours a day behind my desktop.
After ipad i spend 5 to 6 hours a week behind my desktop !

 

[Mildredop]

you'd know that those expensive iPads pay for themselves in the long run.

And how exactly do they pay for themselves?

 

[charlituna]

not no big deal since the new ones will be coming soon

pretty much. Actually that explains the trend. Everyone is expecting there to be new ones in Sept/Oct so anyone that doesn't have one and has a clue, plus doesn't have to have it right now. They will be waiting. Same with upgraders. Anyone with a real clue knows this little detail and would toss it out there to validate that they know what they are talking about.


I laid out for a 16GB original Mini only cause I needed it for app testing. I want to get a Mini for daily use but I figure my 4th G is still working fine for that so save my money and pick up a 6th/3rd for my use in the fall and keep this old one as another tester (currently i'm using my old 2nd gen for that). Otherwise I am fully in the same boat.

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I can't speak for anyone else, but I've waiting for the TouchID to come to the iPad, especially with the added third-party support in IOS 8. I'm currently looking to replace by old iPad 3, and I have really been waiting for TouchID and better color gamut.

I'm not holding my breath for Touch ID in the iPads but I am hoping that I'm wrong. It would be a nice feature. I'll get whatever it new no matter what on that front.

What would be my deciding factors would be the screen quality, the battery etc. And repairability would win me over. Having had to replace an iPad due to a dying battery really hit home how crappy it is that there are no dang screws for even the legit staff at an apple store to repair the iPads. They make a huge deal out of how earth friendly it is that they can repair almost all parts in a phone but with an iPad its the whole thing. Yeah okay so they gave me a really cheap rate since it was a confirmed battery issue but if it had been a blown speaker or camera I would have been out over $200 over what, at least in a phone, is a $60 part. All cause they can't fix it. Sure many folks are gutsy enough to attempt it themselves but why should it come to that really

 

[TouchMint.com]

Sounds about right. I can even see iphone flat or down bc of all the hype around the 6. Everyone I've talked to that is due for an upgrade is waiting for the larger screen on 6 models.

 

[charlituna]

iPad's big problem right now is its OS. iOS is showing major signs of problems at this point, particularly for a large device that has aspirations to be a productivity device, and not just an e-reader, game playing, facetime device. It's not even clear if Apple themselves are optimizing their OS for the thing. Look at how awkward iOS7 was on it.

maybe YOU find it awkward but I don't. No one in my office does, no one on set does. We are very productive with our iPads 'despite' iOS 7. And I suspect that there are many others that feel the same way. from offices, to production companies, to professional artists, to teachers and so on.

 

[taptic]

And how exactly do they pay for themselves?

Obviously you know nothing about nothing about android and iOS debates.

 

[dilbert99]

I prefer to get my investment advice from someone with a proven track record.

Obviously a Big improvement

----------

Actually I get this point. The iPad itself likely outsells every high end tablet (model vs model) by more than 100 to 1, BUT:

- It does it because it looks amazing, has apps that take advantage of it, iOS as a platform is unmatched, etc.

However, the OS UI itself does not take advantage of the big canvas. I understand rows of icons on phones. I believe that the iPhone is overall the best phone and platform by a large margin, obviously. Widgets as notifications (relevant) and something as Google Now on Google Now Launcher is smart (quick glance of useful info), but they make widgets on home screens useless. The iPhone is great as it is.

But rows of icons ALONE on the iPad isn' enough. Maybe 3 rows, and use the rest of the screen (on top) as a permanent Google Now type of thing.

(I use Android).

The launch screen on the iPad is just a means to an end for launching apps. You buy a tablet, not for the widgets and launch screen but for the apps. Its not that important (while it might be nice) to have updating widgets on the launch screen.

 

[dilbert99]

No they don't, and never will, as you cannot define best.

You can according to most dictionaries I look at: http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/best

Of the most excellent or desirable type or quality
the best midfielder in the country (obviously subjective, but a valid statement none the less)
Most enjoyable

Isn't the iPad excellent, desirable and of the best quality?
Best in an iPad for example can't be compared to a spec sheet because you are not comparing apples with apples.

e.g. you can't compare mHz of one CPU with another that doesn't run the same instruction set...

 

[dbrinn]

No they don't, and never will, as you cannot define best.
They probably don't use the BEST in anything.

Best screens?
Best SSD's?
Best CPU's ?
Best Graphics cards?

What say Steve Jobs thought was best for him was not best for others.
Likewise what I think it best for me is not best for you.

Slapping a laptop GPU in a 2000+ dollar machine on your desk (iMac) for me it not best. It's dam shoddy and poor.

They may not use the best components, but who does? They have to be affordable.
They do however, make the best use of those components. Ergo, they make the best products.

"never will?" are you some kind of digital medium? how do you know this? are you from the future?

 

[Rodster]

It's not even supposed to be a productivity device. If you want Mac OS, LinuxMint, or Windows, use a laptop. Much better in any case. Those tablet/PC hybrids like the Surface are gross.

Gotta agree with this. I've always viewed tablets as mainly consumption, entertainment devices.

 

[MacSince1990]

Not really. The consensus earnings forecasts are rarely more than 5% off, but I guess you expect them to predict the precise number every time, or they are wrong. You know, to be fair.

Nah, I meant analysts in general. Earnings forecasts aren't terribly difficult to predict with some accuracy for obvious reasons. But many analysts try to predict things that they simply can't.

Future stocks prices, for example.

 

[512ke]

Agreed. iOS is the problem. That's why high-end productivity tablets running Android and Windows are doing so well and why Samsung's profits are up... oh wait, maybe you should sit down and think for a while before posting.

Samsung's profits are down, to the point that senior management has to forego bonuses and publicly apologize, which is in the news today.

Meanwhile Microsoft just discontinued tablets due to anemic sales.

High end productivity tablet sales aren't doing so well.

What's doing constant business are iPads, at the high end.
And lower priced Android tablets are doing well.

Maybe you should Google news search before posting? Just kidding, but maybe.

 

[PowerBook-G5]

Forget about the over-paid analysts, my cat can make better predictions than those people!

 

[osofast240sx]

Here we go again with the "professional" vs. "amateur" analysts.

The correct distinction is between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts. A person isn't an "amateur" simply because they practice their profession freelance.

Junior analysts is a more accurate term.

 

[KohPhiPhi]

The thing is that the iPad is a mature product, just like the iPhone or the iPod, so you can't expect exponential growth any more. In fact, sustainable sales are a good thing considering this scenario: it means that your product has reached a healthy and comfortable plateau.

The key to this whole argument is that, as opposed to the phone niche, Apple hasn't faced any real worthy competitor in the tablet niche, either in terms of the product itself or in terms of sales. The numbers are out there: Samsung tablets, Surface Pro, etc are just not selling well. Therefore, for as long as Apple keeps on launching new iPad models every year, people will continue to buy them as their tablet of choice by default.

In my opinion, Apple has little to worry about in the tablets business. The phone business in the other hand is proving to be far more competitive, and Samsung has been giving Apple a run for their money.

 

[JoEw]

People don't upgrade tablets as much phones, my dad has been rocking the same ipad 2 tablet since 2011...

 

[JohnGrey]

I'm not holding my breath for Touch ID in the iPads but I am hoping that I'm wrong. It would be a nice feature. I'll get whatever it new no matter what on that front.

I'm in the same boat, as far as being a definite buyer. I've gotten two excellent years of heavy use and my iPad is still going strong. Were it not for my concern over decreased usability as iOS progresses, I might not consider it without the addition of TouchID. That said, I'll be very surprised if it doesn't make an appearance in this generation of iPad.

What would be my deciding factors would be the screen quality, the battery etc. And repairability would win me over. Having had to replace an iPad due to a dying battery really hit home how crappy it is that there are no dang screws for even the legit staff at an apple store to repair the iPads. They make a huge deal out of how earth friendly it is that they can repair almost all parts in a phone but with an iPad its the whole thing. Yeah okay so they gave me a really cheap rate since it was a confirmed battery issue but if it had been a blown speaker or camera I would have been out over $200 over what, at least in a phone, is a $60 part. All cause they can't fix it. Sure many folks are gutsy enough to attempt it themselves but why should it come to that really

I've yet to deal with replacing an iOS device due to wear or malfunction, so I can't really comment on my feelings there. That said, I've never viewed iPad as a reparable class of device; if I get the same two years out of the next one, I'll call it money well spent.

 

[RobertMartens]

This I do agree with. A larger iphone will definitely increase sales. But people will question the need to buy another ipad. Apple needs to totally revamp the look of the ipad. Regular customers aren't going to pluck down $500 plus for little updates.

People who don't need a new iPad shouldn't buy a new iPad
Problem solved

 

[wovel]

Not really. The consensus earnings forecasts are rarely more than 5% off, but I guess you expect them to predict the precise number every time, or they are wrong. You know, to be fair.

The consensus is actually quite meaningless and in fact, most of the analysts are off by a lot every single time. However, that is not what most people complain about. The chief complaint is the analysts make up wild excuses for why the company failed to meet their predictions. The sensible thing would be to admit they were wrong and move on.

----------

No they don't, and never will, as you cannot define best.
They probably don't use the BEST in anything.

Best screens?
Best SSD's?
Best CPU's ?
Best Graphics cards?

What say Steve Jobs thought was best for him was not best for others.
Likewise what I think it best for me is not best for you.

Slapping a laptop GPU in a 2000+ dollar machine on your desk (iMac) for me it not best. It's dam shoddy and poor.

See you are confusing best products with best features. You would do well in product development just about anywhere but Apple.

----------

People who don't need a new iPad shouldn't buy a new iPad
Problem solved

I am not sure why this is hard for people to grasp. I also don't know why people think the iPad having longer refresh cycles than the iPhone is somehow news to Apple. It was clear from the beginning that Apple expects the iPad to fit more into the computer space than the phone space.

----------

Junior analysts is a more accurate term.

How is that in any way accurate? I am not sure why Fortune seems to want to categorize Horace Dediu as somehow less professional than Gene Munster. I don't mind Munster either, I just don't see why they feel compelled to make a distinction. List the analysts, list their affiliations, and be done with it. There is no need to try and categorize them.

 

[MMANN113]

I predict most people tuned out at "Analysts Predict..."

MacRumors staff could hide all of their personal passwords, social security numbers, and bank account numbers in an article that starts with "Analysts predict..." Everyone around here sure hates the A-word.

 

[IJ Reilly]

Nah, I meant analysts in general. Earnings forecasts aren't terribly difficult to predict with some accuracy for obvious reasons. But many analysts try to predict things that they simply can't.

Future stocks prices, for example.

I presume you meant that forecasting earnings isn't difficult, but you'd be wrong. The mean of the 30 or so analysts who follow Apple tends to be close to reality, but the distribution is considerable and few of the analysts can claim a very consistent track record. One year projections of stock price is actually a relatively simple exercise, but they are only as accurate as the earnings estimates can be forward four quarters. They only bother you if you overstate their real significance.

----------

The consensus is actually quite meaningless and in fact, most of the analysts are off by a lot every single time. However, that is not what most people complain about. The chief complaint is the analysts make up wild excuses for why the company failed to meet their predictions. The sensible thing would be to admit they were wrong and move on.

Quite the opposite in reality, and ironically for just the reason you state.

 

[proline]

Samsung's profits are down, to the point that senior management has to forego bonuses and publicly apologize, which is in the news today.

Meanwhile Microsoft just discontinued tablets due to anemic sales.

High end productivity tablet sales aren't doing so well.

What's doing constant business are iPads, at the high end.
And lower priced Android tablets are doing well.

Maybe you should Google news search before posting? Just kidding, but maybe.

Did you really miss the sarcasm? I thought it was pretty obvious.