Android and iOS Continue to Dominate Smartphone Market as Windows Phone Shows Signs of Life

[toaster64]

I don't follow this stuff at all, the trend of smartphones and stuff. But what phone comes with Linux??

Android, right? But they're separate on this.

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The market share difference between MS and Apple shrunk by 7% Y/Y... If both companies repeat their performance for the next two years, MS will overtake Apple.

Of course, Android is still crushing all.

Seems odd... Whenever I look around myself it seems Apple is at 70-90% and Android is everything else (so 30-10%.)

Evidently my view of the world is narrow, as the numbers are reverse that.

Probably because you don't live in China, India, or South Korea.

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That means Motorola, Samsung, LG, HTC, Sony, Huawei, ZTE, Kyocera, Oppo, Lenovo... and countless other Chinese manufacturers... have to share 74% of that pie.

Seems like Apple is eating the best here.

Google gets a large amount of control over all Android phones, mostly regardless of the hardware.

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Windows Phone is growing like iOS used to. Soon, android and windows will dominate, and iOS will be a niche player, much like OSX.

The old timers will continue to use it, much like OSX, while the new buyers will not.

Just my $0.02.

You're extrapolating from one point of data. While I know you really wish for this to be true, it's unlikely. I can see Apple holding wealthy countries and Google taking the poorer ones, but there's no room for MS.

 

[AaronEdwards]

Let me ask you, if you ran a company which would you rather have.....5% of market with 70% of profits or 95% of market with 30% profits.....

Apple isn't going anywhere.

As I've said before, what's the point in "winning" if the other guy gets all the prizes?

Shipments anyways. But Apple still makes more money and has much higher usage stats...

Do you think Apple will still get all the prizes when it's market share is down to 5%?

Do you think new buyers of an Android smart phone will pick Google Play or iTunes?

Why would Android users be buying books from iBooks? (Actually, they can't since Apple doesn't allow an iBooks app on Android.)

Or maybe you believe that Apple's 5% share will contain the most affluent people and that these will never buy Android phones? Good luck with that...

So when you say "OSX is a niche player" do you mean "growing faster than the market".....because that second comment is the reality.....

It's the fastest growing because they sell so few.

Which article is correct, this one that has Android at 75% or the one a couple of weeks ago that had iOS overtaking Android by 2015?

https://www.macrumors.com/2013/04/2...ld-drive-iphone-market-share-gains-for-years/

I'd say the first one, since that is an estimation on what is true now, the second one is an forecast, and well, those tend to be very wrong.

(An estimate of the current global temperature will be a lot more correct than a forecast of what it will be in 5 years...)

 

[toaster64]

If you are an Apple shareholder it means a lot. Otherwise just the developers should actually care if they only develop for iOS. Then a shrinking market share would eventually impact sales.

Market share is a percentage. It's not like iOS is losing sales, just that Android is taking the buyers in developing countries.

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I would never subject myself to a Windows phone. If I had to choose and couldn't get an iPhone, there's no further to look than Android. It's a two-party system.

 

[AaronEdwards]

Where does IDC get its numbers from?

I've already pointed it out for you in other threads when you have asked the same question, it can easily be found by googling, but here's the link again.

It's in the factsheet link on the right.

IDC's tracker data is developed using a rigorous methodology that includes well-planned and well-coordinated local, regional, and
worldwide data cross-checks combined with a proprietary advanced data consolidation and analysis data platform managed by IDC's
Worldwide Tracker organization. Data sources used in the process of determining IDC's tracker numbers include, but are not limited to:
 In-country local vendor interviews
 Distribution data feeds
 Worldwide and regional vendor guidance
 ODM data
 In-country local channel partner discussions
 Import records
 Feedback from component suppliers
 Vendor briefings and public financial reports

 

[BaldiMac]

Is it possible for Android to be at 75% and growing globally and sinking that much in the US in 3 years?

Again, not the same thing. The 75% is global smartphone share. The mobile phone platform share in the projections is based on all mobile phones, not just smartphones. Android's global phone share is around 36.6% for Q1 2013.

So its clear, I'm going to assume that you mean Gapps (Play Store) when you refer to 'Android apps'. And To be honest, I think that's valid but at the same time not. It's a slippery slope to start parsing out what 'is' and what 'isnt' Android when at its core, it's Android.

Part of how I make decisions is to look at the past. Literally this road is being blazed in real time. We don't have the luxury of the past to make distinctions, so for the foreseeable future, we're going to have this type of discussion because it's an unknown quantity.

Again, you don't seem to understand that there is a different category of Android apps that you are missing. Samsung and HTC are basically adding a skin and some extra apps and functions to Android. They are still Android compatible and they still use Google services. They are part of the Open Handset Alliance and have agreed to interoperability requirements. In my opinion, these flavors of Android should be counted in the Android market share.

However, there are also phones with OS's built from the AOSP that are not compatible with the Android platform. Particularly in China. They have there own APIs and are not interoperable with Android. You cannot run Android apps on them. They do not run Google services. They are not "Android" in that they don't meet Google's requirement to use that trademark. I don't think IDC should include these devices in the Android market share.

No slippery slope here. It's a clear distinction that reflects on the actual size of the development platform.

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Do you think Apple will still get all the prizes when it's market share is down to 5%?

Do you think new buyers of an Android smart phone will pick Google Play or iTunes?

Why would Android users be buying books from iBooks? (Actually, they can't since Apple doesn't allow an iBooks app on Android.)

Or maybe you believe that Apple's 5% share will contain the most affluent people and that these will never buy Android phones? Good luck with that...

How would I know what I'd think in an alternate universe? Wouldn't I be a different person?

They do seem to be getting all the prizes with just 9% of the global phone market. If you replace all the feature phones with extreme low end Android phones, I don't think that changes much.

 

[subsonix]

I'd say the first one, since that is an estimation on what is true now, the second one is an forecast, and well, those tend to be very wrong.

Obviously both can be right or wrong or any combination. It's not necessary for one to be right and the other wrong, they measure different things and are not contradicting each other.

 

[AaronEdwards]

Obviously both can be right or wrong or any combination. It's not necessary for one to be right and the other wrong, they measure different things and are not contradicting each other.

True. But I'd also point out that probability that the first one is true is a lot higher than that the second one will be.

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They do seem to be getting all the prizes with just 9% of the global phone market. If you replace all the feature phones with extreme low end Android phones, I don't think that changes much.

But that's not what's happening, Samsung,etc isn't just selling low end smart phones, they are also selling mid end phones and high end phones.

The iPhone isn't going to be an exclusive brand for affluent people.

An Android phone isn't going to be what people who can't afford to buy an iPhone will buy.

And parents aren't going to buy a cheap Android phone for their 7 year old kids, who then all will end up buying iPhones when they can afford them.

 

[subsonix]

True. But I'd also point out that probability that the first one is true is a lot higher than that the second one will be.

That is exactly what you said yes, and I pointed out that it's a pointless distinction to make.

The iPhone isn't going to be an exclusive brand for affluent people.

An Android phone isn't going to be what people who can't afford to buy an iPhone will buy.

And parents aren't going to buy a cheap Android phone for their 7 year old kids, who then all will end up buying iPhones when they can afford them.

Funny, you don't believe in consumer surveys, but your own crystal ball predictions are apparently accurate?

 

[parapup]

• Question the Numbers
• Claim Android is not a single entity or variations thereof
• Marketshare does not matter
• Talk about Fragmentation
• Claim it's all the low end free devices that make up the Android share - phew, almost forgot about THAT!
• Demand numbers in a way that favors iOS
• Talk about who has the biggest, wait for it, PROFITS!

Which ones still remain to be proclaimed? Otherwise moving on to another thread sounds virtually more productive.

 

[AaronEdwards]

That is exactly what you said yes, and I pointed out that it's a pointless distinction to make.




Funny, you don't believe in consumer surveys, but your own crystal ball predictions are apparently accurate?

Well, I obviously believe that my own opinion will in the end be more accurate. And, also obviously, others will disagree.

 

[69650]

What is "the market" for a software developer? You are counting owners of phones. I would be counting owners of phones who are willing to pay money for apps. And there, the iOS market share is much bigger.

How do you count owners of phones willing to pay for apps? It's impossible to quantify that. As a business owner I need facts to base my decisions upon, not conjecture.

There was a report only a few days ago that said the average iPhone user only spends $40 a year on iTunes content for their iPhone. That includes music, films, tv, apps, books, etc. $40 a year that's all.

Let's assume that the average Android users only spends $20 a year on content. If there are 4 times as many Android phones as iPhones that adds up to more money for developers. Installed base is critical to developers. For years software companies refused to develop applications for the Mac because they said the installed base (ie the potential market) was too low. Apple absolutely cannot let that happen with the iPhone and they know it. That's why they keep banging on about how much money they give to app developers, because they are obviously worried that app developers will read these reports and jump ship.

 

[69650]

Is your app English-only? That knocks out a huge chunk of Android users in China, India and other non-English countries where Android is prevalent.

What are you talking about? Big software developers make products for a worldwide audience. You want me to lock out a potential market of nearly 3 billion people? Are you nuts. Nobody gives a crap about little mom and pop apps that make peanuts for their developers. The people making serious money off iOS apps are the multi-national games companies like EA and serious professional software developers.

I would also like to point out that the people buying iPhones in India and China are wealthy middle class people many of whom do speak English. Where I live in the UK we have literally thousands of Chinese students at our local University. You have a very myopic view of the world.

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Except that majority of that 17% actually spend money and buy stuff. Whereas only a fraction of the other 80% do.

The average iPhone user spends just $40 a year on content for their phone.

Look I'm not dissing the iPhone, I'm just making a point that Apple simply cannot afford to let Android run away with the market. They cannot afford to stay on the high ground and let Android dominate. Apple have got to mix it up a bit, make a real effort to address the vast majority of users in the mid-price market. Address the growing demand for larger screens.

Honestly if people can't see that then they are being dangerously complacent IMHO. Please don't assume that Apple are too big or too powerful to fall. Over the years I've seen lots of big technology and software companies come and go. Look at RIM. They didn't move with the market and now their on their knees. It can happen to anyone and it can happen quickly.

 

[Explicitic]

And, again, Android isn't "an OS". It is many different OS's built from the same source code. Some of which are not even compatible.

What? What...? WHAT?

Android isn't an OS? It's many different operating systems?! WHAT?! Am I in another universe?

Android is a SINGLE operating system, not MULTIPLE operating systems. Adding an overlay on top of Android DOES NOT make it a completely new operating system. Samsung, HTC, and just about all other Android phone manufacturers add overlays on their devices but that simply means changing the aesthetics of the software and maybe adding a few features here and there but the CORE FUNCTIONS are still the same. I can access the same settings. Use the same apps. Do everything my other phone does that isn't overlay-exclusive.

If adding an overlay on top of AOSP makes it a different operating system, then that means installing a launcher makes my phone run a different operating system. There's a TouchWiz Nature UX launcher. There'a a Sense launcher. There are themes. I run CyanogenMod which has its own theme manager that allows you to download themes and use them. Does that make it a new operating system? Probably not, and again, a theme is essentially what an overlay is.

I can only think of one FORKED Android platform that is actually mainstream and that is with Amazon's Kindles, but that is because Amazon is a content-provider, as is Google. They have their own app store, music, movies, books, etc...and therefore needs to fork the operating system to make sure users actually use their content.

Please, give me an example of the oh so many different operating systems that is Android.

 

[Mackilroy]

For context, there were plenty of iOS users who didn't upgrade to iOS 6 right away. TBH I am not sure if older iPhones that shipped during this time period like iPhone 4 and 4s were shipping with iOS 5 and the user had to upgrade manually.

They were being shipped with iOS 6.

 

[Toltepeceno]

As for your observations, keep in mind that those are Worldwide shipment numbers. Emerging countries like China and India are buying more and more budget Android phones instead of dumbphones and Apple has no competitive offering unlike pretty much all other manufacturers.

Exactly. Where we live in mexico, right by the capital of the state, I rarely see iphones. It's all android. It's hard for apple to compete when a new iphone 5 is over 800.00 us here.

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What corporation are making the lion's share of the profits?

iOS is dominating.

And that helps YOU how?

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Apple does not have a cheap iPhone.

It is subsidized by the carriers in some countries. Full price for a iPhone 4 is $400 + in a non subsidized market.

It's actually 508.00 here in mexico.

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The US is not the world. It is not even representative.

Shhhh, you'll bust his bubble.

 

[Toltepeceno]

While back there was a story about usage. Apple had (pulling from memory) about 65% of all mobile web usage.

Many markets that are mostly android, like here in mexico, also do not have data stable enough to stay on the internet on the phone all day. That's one reason.

 

[Toltepeceno]

That's true... and it makes a great headline.

But I've asked this before... and nobody can give me a good answer:

What's the compelling story beyond that headline?

"Android" is a bunch of different versions of software put on all sorts of phones, sold at many different price ranges, from many manufacturers. That's how "Android" claimed its spot on top of the market share chart. Congratulations.

But other than that fancy headline... what does "Android" get from all this market share?

Hows this. Right now even with apple still expanding android is expanding MUCH faster. There is still much growth so it's not eating to apples bottom line yet just market share, but if the phone boom tops out then it would provided android is still on a roll which they should be as the countries still catching up are by far android turf. Apple needs to roll out the lower cost phone and make it affordable for these areas.

 

[pirg]

And that helps YOU how?

How does the marketshare of hundreds of phones combined help YOU?

 

[BaldiMac]

But that's not what's happening, Samsung,etc isn't just selling low end smart phones, they are also selling mid end phones and high end phones.

The iPhone isn't going to be an exclusive brand for affluent people.

An Android phone isn't going to be what people who can't afford to buy an iPhone will buy.

And parents aren't going to buy a cheap Android phone for their 7 year old kids, who then all will end up buying iPhones when they can afford them.

I don't know what you are responding to here. I was just pointing out that I think most of the room for growth of the smartphone market is at the low end. Replacing feature phones and emerging markets.

What? What...? WHAT?

Android isn't an OS? It's many different operating systems?! WHAT?! Am I in another universe?

Android is a SINGLE operating system, not MULTIPLE operating systems. Adding an overlay on top of Android DOES NOT make it a completely new operating system. Samsung, HTC, and just about all other Android phone manufacturers add overlays on their devices but that simply means changing the aesthetics of the software and maybe adding a few features here and there but the CORE FUNCTIONS are still the same. I can access the same settings. Use the same apps. Do everything my other phone does that isn't overlay-exclusive.

If adding an overlay on top of AOSP makes it a different operating system, then that means installing a launcher makes my phone run a different operating system. There's a TouchWiz Nature UX launcher. There'a a Sense launcher. There are themes. I run CyanogenMod which has its own theme manager that allows you to download themes and use them. Does that make it a new operating system? Probably not, and again, a theme is essentially what an overlay is.

I can only think of one FORKED Android platform that is actually mainstream and that is with Amazon's Kindles, but that is because Amazon is a content-provider, as is Google. They have their own app store, music, movies, books, etc...and therefore needs to fork the operating system to make sure users actually use their content.

Please, give me an example of the oh so many different operating systems that is Android.

And if you had actually read the conversation, you wouldn't be so confused. I am not talking about skins like Touchwiz or Sense, but primarily about actual forked versions that are incompatible with Android.

For example:
http://appleinsider.com/articles/11/02/01/google_android_counts_include_rival_chinese_variants

 

[LagunaSol]

The real winner isn't Android, it's Samsung, who didn't have to spend money to build their own OS and came out on top regardless. And they already got an Android replacement in the wings already with Tizen.

Amen. The ugly truth revealed.

Google gave American software innovation to the Koreans - for free - who in turn bludgeoned American companies (Apple, Motorola, Microsoft, Dell, HP) and sucked billions from the American economy.

Yet Google is the good guy?

 

[Michael Scrip]

What are you talking about? Big software developers make products for a worldwide audience. You want me to lock out a potential market of nearly 3 billion people? Are you nuts. Nobody gives a crap about little mom and pop apps that make peanuts for their developers. The people making serious money off iOS apps are the multi-national games companies like EA and serious professional software developers.

I would also like to point out that the people buying iPhones in India and China are wealthy middle class people many of whom do speak English. Where I live in the UK we have literally thousands of Chinese students at our local University. You have a very myopic view of the world.

Sorry to sound so rough about the language thing. My bad.

You do raise another good point though.

If the people who buy iPhones in China and India are wealthy middle-class people... would you guess that most of the Android phones sold in China and India are cheaper models?

That was kinda my point. There are TONS of cheap Android phones sold in just those two countries... which increases Android's market share around the globe.

But what are all those phones doing for the platform?

You've got a bunch of cheap Android phones that probably aren't being used for apps or data... or that are sold to people with poor coverage in their area. Yet those phones get added in with all the other Android phones that makes up 75% of the smartphone market.

That's why I was saying don't get lured in by Android's huge market share number.

Android has a crazy amount of market share... but it's the #2 platform that gets all the attention.

You'd think it would be a no-brainer to develop for the largest platform... but that's clearly not the case.

 

[skratch77]

I don't know what you are responding to here. I was just pointing out that I think most of the room for growth of the smartphone market is at the low end. Replacing feature phones and emerging markets.



And if you had actually read the conversation, you wouldn't be so confused. I am not talking about skins like Touchwiz or Sense, but primarily about actual forked versions that are incompatible with Android.

For example:
http://appleinsider.com/articles/11/02/01/google_android_counts_include_rival_chinese_variants

Did you just use appleinsider for your source lmfao.

Even you biased source suggests its China no name phones lol ohh and for your claim that Linux % in the op is exactly for those phones you seem to think make up the numbers for android.

You also don't mention how those fake android phones use apple web code and get flagged as apple devices on web sites.like how when I post on fb with my cheap tablet that doesn't support android market it says posted from iOS device

 

[Michael Scrip]

Hows this. Right now even with apple still expanding android is expanding MUCH faster. There is still much growth so it's not eating to apples bottom line yet just market share, but if the phone boom tops out then it would provided android is still on a roll which they should be as the countries still catching up are by far android turf. Apple needs to roll out the lower cost phone and make it affordable for these areas.

You're right... Apple will never "catch up" to Android in sales, market share, or anything.

But do they have to?

Right now Apple is selling 400,000 iPhones every day.

If a day ever comes when Apple sells ZERO iPhones... then I'd be worried.

But by that time... every other company would have already gone out of business.

 

[EbookReader]

Breaking news: AT&T just announced that it will drop phone subsidy, following T-Mobile example.

 

[Renzatic]

Amen. The ugly truth revealed.

Google gave American software innovation to the Koreans - for free - who in turn bludgeoned American companies (Apple, Motorola, Microsoft, Dell, HP) and sucked billions from the American economy.

Yet Google is the good guy?

While we're playing the blame game, we might as well call out Canonical for giving Linux away to the Chinese...for free. Hell, that's server software, man. Pretty soon the reds will use our hard earned American-Finnish software innovations to control the internet, and the West will loose TRILLIONS. In 3 years, we'll all be speaking Mandarin. Just you watch.