Some of you may not remember this but at one time Samsung was releasing its original Galaxy S through S5 in May-June. The S6-S10 were moved earlier to late February. from S20’s to present, the release dates moved into Mid January-Early February.
There’s plenty of speculation as to why Samsung kept shifting release dates - some say Samsung needed to have more time for Galaxy S sales before Apple stole the spotlight and sales from September through March basically unopposed, some say Samsung wanted to curb Apple’s momentum and take back the consumer mindspace by earlier and earlier in the year challenges to Apple iPhone sales, plus visibility at MWC.
The same can be said for Note phablets in early September at IFA, and then moved into August with Note 5 (mid-Aug), 7 (early-Aug), 8 (late-Aug).
Z Foldables shifted a lot - OG Fold introduced in February, released in September 2019. From there:
If Apple shift its second wave of “value” base iPhone, iPhone Air, iPhone 18e models, plus discounted prior base models and leftover Pro/Pro Max models, plus larger supply of refurbished models traded in, IMO, this puts huge competitive pressure on Samsung’s January-February Galaxy S and Galaxy A-series introductions. Sure, they will still sell (some), but imagine your mid-January intro, and early February release only to be completely swamped by press coverage and consumer attention of what Apple will intro and release in mid-Feb to Early March.
ANY Samsung sales momentum could be directly blunted by having to go against Apple iPhones head to head. Not so much the A-series but if A-series gets price increases, that puts them in same range as refurbed 3-4 year old iPhones.
I would almost guarantee Samsung and other Android/Chinese OEM makers will shift “their” intro and release dates yet again to either take on Apple directly, or avoid Apple at all costs, because sales and margins into 2027 are going to be tough to maintain due to the memory cost crunch.
Like it or not, Apple has all the leverage here, and even though Androids have had split intros for awhile, they did it and kept it knowing Apple was a one time September through December Q4 - Into Q1 March sales juggernaut. This also siphons off the higher value buyers ahead of Galaxy S intro.
Now Android makers will have to react (and will) to Apple’s release date splits and potential conquest sales in Q1 & Q2.
Yes, Galaxy S26 sales are off to a fast start, just as S25 were last year. But notice Samsung themselves for Q2 note waning effects from Galaxy S introduction as sales taper off quickly. Will the Galaxy S26 manage to top the 37M Galaxy S25 series sold? The same things happened with Z Foldables the last two years, hitting a wall at 11-12M in 2024 and plateaued around 10-11M for 2025, Huawei being formidable competition, both IMO quite worried about what an iPhone Fold will do to the market.
This all coincides with reports that TM Roh, head of Samsung MX Mobile division warns that smartphones may end up losing money (negative profits) this year due to sharply rising costs and faltering demand due to price hikes and competition.
IMO, you’ll see some Android makers quietly scramble to avoid Apple’s release schedule.
We’ll see.
Oh, PS - recall that the iPhone 17 base model is selling hugely in China, being the best selling premium model there by 3-5x nearest competitor. Now imagine Chinese buyers delaying purchases into Jan-March waiting for the newest base iPhone, juiced by Lunar New Year and 618 sales festivals promotions, discounts and sales push plus local Chinese subsidies. Apple could potentially take Q4 and Q1 lead in sales in both quarters.
This tweak to Apple’s release schedule maybe real trouble for Android, not just in sales volume, but overall revenues taken by Apple and what’s left for Android.
There’s plenty of speculation as to why Samsung kept shifting release dates - some say Samsung needed to have more time for Galaxy S sales before Apple stole the spotlight and sales from September through March basically unopposed, some say Samsung wanted to curb Apple’s momentum and take back the consumer mindspace by earlier and earlier in the year challenges to Apple iPhone sales, plus visibility at MWC.
The same can be said for Note phablets in early September at IFA, and then moved into August with Note 5 (mid-Aug), 7 (early-Aug), 8 (late-Aug).
Z Foldables shifted a lot - OG Fold introduced in February, released in September 2019. From there:
- 2020: The Galaxy Z Flip was unveiled on February 11 and released on February 14. The Galaxy Z Fold2 was announced on August 5 and released on September 18.
- 2021: The Galaxy Z Fold3 and Galaxy Z Flip3 were unveiled and released in August.
- 2022: The Galaxy Z Fold4 and Galaxy Z Flip4 were announced on August 10 and released on August 26.
- 2023: The Galaxy Z Fold5 and Galaxy Z Flip5 were announced on July 26 and released on August 11.
- 2024: The Galaxy Z Fold6 and Galaxy Z Flip6 were announced on July 10 and released on July 24.
- 2025: The Galaxy Z Fold7 and Galaxy Z Flip7 were unveiled on July 9 and released globally in July.
- As you can see, progressively earlier and earlier from September to July. Speculation is so Foldables had a clear 1-2 sales months before being upstaged and competed with by iPhone introductions in mid-September.
If Apple shift its second wave of “value” base iPhone, iPhone Air, iPhone 18e models, plus discounted prior base models and leftover Pro/Pro Max models, plus larger supply of refurbished models traded in, IMO, this puts huge competitive pressure on Samsung’s January-February Galaxy S and Galaxy A-series introductions. Sure, they will still sell (some), but imagine your mid-January intro, and early February release only to be completely swamped by press coverage and consumer attention of what Apple will intro and release in mid-Feb to Early March.
ANY Samsung sales momentum could be directly blunted by having to go against Apple iPhones head to head. Not so much the A-series but if A-series gets price increases, that puts them in same range as refurbed 3-4 year old iPhones.
I would almost guarantee Samsung and other Android/Chinese OEM makers will shift “their” intro and release dates yet again to either take on Apple directly, or avoid Apple at all costs, because sales and margins into 2027 are going to be tough to maintain due to the memory cost crunch.
Like it or not, Apple has all the leverage here, and even though Androids have had split intros for awhile, they did it and kept it knowing Apple was a one time September through December Q4 - Into Q1 March sales juggernaut. This also siphons off the higher value buyers ahead of Galaxy S intro.
Now Android makers will have to react (and will) to Apple’s release date splits and potential conquest sales in Q1 & Q2.
Yes, Galaxy S26 sales are off to a fast start, just as S25 were last year. But notice Samsung themselves for Q2 note waning effects from Galaxy S introduction as sales taper off quickly. Will the Galaxy S26 manage to top the 37M Galaxy S25 series sold? The same things happened with Z Foldables the last two years, hitting a wall at 11-12M in 2024 and plateaued around 10-11M for 2025, Huawei being formidable competition, both IMO quite worried about what an iPhone Fold will do to the market.
This all coincides with reports that TM Roh, head of Samsung MX Mobile division warns that smartphones may end up losing money (negative profits) this year due to sharply rising costs and faltering demand due to price hikes and competition.
IMO, you’ll see some Android makers quietly scramble to avoid Apple’s release schedule.
We’ll see.
Oh, PS - recall that the iPhone 17 base model is selling hugely in China, being the best selling premium model there by 3-5x nearest competitor. Now imagine Chinese buyers delaying purchases into Jan-March waiting for the newest base iPhone, juiced by Lunar New Year and 618 sales festivals promotions, discounts and sales push plus local Chinese subsidies. Apple could potentially take Q4 and Q1 lead in sales in both quarters.
This tweak to Apple’s release schedule maybe real trouble for Android, not just in sales volume, but overall revenues taken by Apple and what’s left for Android.
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