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again, are you going for maximum number of wins, maximize number of dollars won or going for big prizes?
that affects your ideal strategy the most (again keeping in mind that in term of net money, statistically you certainly lose)

if you are looking at total money 'earned', than you need to calculate the statistical average of your return of investment per dollar spent.
if you get 5 dollars back on the $5 dollar tickets or 20$ back on the 20$ ticket, then it's the same, but what are respective odds of winning that specific prize? that will tell you which one is more advantageous. and you have to get that for all the prizes, including the middle ones (not sure if the odds per each prize are available)

Well I calculate the odds per each prize. For example, here's a document I drew up last week:

$20 ticket - 1 in 11.72 odds of winning $50 or more.

$10 ticket - 1 in 22.92 odds of winning $50 or more.

$5 ticket - 1 in 41.03 odds of winning $50 or more.

Odds of winning $50 or more are equivalent between these three tickets, relative to the price of the ticket.

$20 ticket - 1 in 22.92 odds of winning $100 or more.

$10 ticket - 1 in 42.76 odds of winning $100 or more.

$5 ticket - 1 in 983 odds of winning $100 or more.

Odds of winning $100 or more kicks $5 tickets out of the race. Even four $5 tickets doesn't come close to the odds you have of winning $100 with a $20 or two $10 tickets.

$20 ticket - 1 in 278 odds of winning $200 or more.

$10 ticket - 1 in 1,300 odds of winning $200 or more.

Odds of winning $200 or more now kicks $10 tickets out of the race as well, leaving the $20 ticket as the only one that gives you any reasonable chance of winning a decent prize.

But then at the same time, you have a greater chance of getting some of your money back with four $5 tickets vs. one $20.
 
well, if you are interested in winning $50 or more, based on the odds you report, it's a no brainer. you should only get $20 tickets.
i guess the odds change in the other direction when you go to lower prizes, but if those do not interest you, then you already have your answer.
 
Well, here's the thing. Assuming I'm not going to win a big prize, I need to get as much of my money back as possible, so that I can buy as many more tickets as possible with the winnings.

Buying only $20 tickets gives you better chances of hitting larger prizes, but buying three $20 tickets will almost certainly give you less money than buying twelve $5 tickets.

I once spent $180 on tickets in the form of three $20, six $10 and twelve $5. I won $75.

On another occasion I bought nine $20 with $180, and only won $40.

I'm just trying to figure out what the best balance is. I want a handful of tickets that have large prizes, but I also want enough tickets that will ensure some of my money back so that I can ride the game longer without having to dig into my pocket again.
 
...I also want enough tickets that will ensure some of my money back so that I can ride the game longer without having to dig into my pocket again.

Not going to happen.

This is worth repeating:

Not going to happen.

I know you want to hear a different answer, but a different answer is incorrect.

Mathematically speaking, you can't do this. It won't work. It doesn't work.

You have your answer. I'm sorry you don't like it, but you can't rationalize the truth away.
 
Not going to happen.

This is worth repeating:

Not going to happen.

I know you want to hear a different answer, but a different answer is incorrect.

Mathematically speaking, you can't do this. It won't work. It doesn't work.

You have your answer. I'm sorry you don't like it, but you can't rationalize the truth away.

I can't ensure to get SOME of my money back? That's all I was talking about.... SOME, not ALL. Some. As in, a portion of. You try to buy twenty or more scratch tickets at once without winning something. You'll find it rather difficult.
 
Well, here's the thing. Assuming I'm not going to win a big prize, I need to get as much of my money back as possible, so that I can buy as many more tickets as possible with the winnings.

Buying only $20 tickets gives you better chances of hitting larger prizes, but buying three $20 tickets will almost certainly give you less money than buying twelve $5 tickets.

I once spent $180 on tickets in the form of three $20, six $10 and twelve $5. I won $75.

On another occasion I bought nine $20 with $180, and only won $40.

I'm just trying to figure out what the best balance is. I want a handful of tickets that have large prizes, but I also want enough tickets that will ensure some of my money back so that I can ride the game longer without having to dig into my pocket again.

the examples you make are statistically irrelevant. they are just anecdotes, they do not represent what you will always get.

statistically, the odds will change not only with the cost of the ticket, but also with the games themselves. not all $5 games have the same odds.
in general, the more expensive the tickets are, the better the odds are. this is because in general the costumer targets are the poor and poorly educated, who likely cannot afford more expensive tickets. the bigger tickets are incentivizes with slightly better odds.
also, i think in most states you can find out when/how many of the big prizes have been won.
if a game has a 500,000 jackpot out of a total 1,000,000 prizes total (again made up number), and the jackpot has been won (info should be on line), the overall odds for that game just got half as bad. stay away from it. chose a similar games where the big prizes are still out there.
also, by the way tickets are printed/marketed, it is unlikely you'll get multiple winning tickets in consecutive tickets.
buy your tickets one at a time, check them and if you lose stick to the same game, same place. if you win, move to a different game or retailer.
it's like for slot machines. they are programmed for a certain number of win in a certain amount of time. it is not purely random. if you win big at a machine, change the machine, if someone else played a lot at one machine and never won, try to get on that machine.

----------

I can't ensure to get SOME of my money back? That's all I was talking about.... SOME, not ALL. Some. As in, a portion of. You try to buy twenty or more scratch tickets at once without winning something. You'll find it rather difficult.

no.

you can improve your CHANCES of getting some money back, but you cannot ensure it will happen
 
It's really very simple....

He wants to win on every ticket, make a fortune, and retire to an island in the Caribbean.

So just tell him how to do that, for goodness sake!:eek:

:p

Ohh, well that's easy then! You really just have to ask clearly! For just 10 easy payments of $999.99, I will send, across 10 volumes, the exact strategy to make this happen, guaranteed!*


*Not a guarantee. For entertainment purposes only.


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I can't ensure to get SOME of my money back? That's all I was talking about.... SOME, not ALL. Some. As in, a portion of. You try to buy twenty or more scratch tickets at once without winning something. You'll find it rather difficult.

Stephen, you seem to have an interest in probability. Perhaps you could look at local community colleges for a night course on basic probability and statistics. I think you'd find it interesting and useful, and I think it'd be a better way to spend your money (just my humble opinion).
 
Ohh, well that's easy then! You really just have to ask clearly! For just 10 easy payments of $999.99, I will send, across 10 volumes, the exact strategy to make this happen, guaranteed!*


*Not a guarantee. For entertainment purposes only.


----------



Stephen, you seem to have an interest in probability. Perhaps you could look at local community colleges for a night course on basic probability and statistics. I think you'd find it interesting and useful, and I think it'd be a better way to spend your money (just my humble opinion).

Okay, I shouldn't have used the word "ensure." My apologies. :rolleyes:
 
the examples you make are statistically irrelevant. they are just anecdotes, they do not represent what you will always get....

his sample size is small enough that chances of winning aren't apt to reflect "average" results anyway
 
Really sounds like all you're doing is trying to justify an addiction. You need help, and not the kind you can get from a math geek.
 
Well the expected value of winnings is negative, so there is no efficient way to play. Also, iirc from stats class, the odds aren't additive as you seem to think.


What I really don't understand is how this is fun, I still have a scratch ticket my mom gave me for Christmas a few months ago that I haven't scratched... for $20 I'll send it to you ;)
 
Well the expected value of winnings is negative, so there is no efficient way to play. Also, iirc from stats class, the odds aren't additive as you seem to think.


What I really don't understand is how this is fun, I still have a scratch ticket my mom gave me for Christmas a few months ago that I haven't scratched... for $20 I'll send it to you ;)

Is it a $20 ticket? What's the name of the game? And what state lottery is it from?
 
Sigh. I know. Jesus. I have a document that tracks my losses. I'm not an idiot, I don't fool myself.
I am sorry to say this, but based on your list and your comments in the thread it does seem like you are foolong yourself by repeating "next week I'll hit the jackpot!"

I would sugget investin the money instead. You also get the kick from checking the changes each day, but you'll most likely earn money in the long term.
 
I can't ensure to get SOME of my money back? That's all I was talking about.... SOME, not ALL
You may get some money back, so if you spend 500 dollars a week on scratch tickets you could possibly walk away with a couple of 10 dollar winning tickets, maybe even a hundred dollars. So you are spending 500 dollars for a winning payout of 20 dollars?

As its been stated, some very smart people set up the lotteries in such a way to ensure that no one beats the house. The odds are not with you.

Dropping 1, 5 or even 10 dollars once in a while for the thrill is one thing, spending inordinate amount of time and money to try to figure out how to beat the system is ill conceived and destined to drain your bank account.
 
I posted a simple expected value calculation in post 13 here but was lacking certain information. The odds you provided can help bring this to an actual valuation.
For example, here's a document I drew up last week <REORDERED>:

$20 ticket - 1 in 278 odds of winning $200 or more.
$20 ticket - 1 in 22.92 odds of winning $100 or more.
$20 ticket - 1 in 11.72 odds of winning $50 or more.

$10 ticket - 1 in 1,300 odds of winning $200 or more.
$10 ticket - 1 in 42.76 odds of winning $100 or more.
$10 ticket - 1 in 22.92 odds of winning $50 or more.

$5 ticket - 1 in 983 odds of winning $100 or more.
$5 ticket - 1 in 41.03 odds of winning $50 or more.
<NO OTHER INFO>

Expected value based on reported info, using minimum payouts and assuming independence of win chances across categories.

Expected Value of $20 ticket = $9.35
$20 ticket- 1 in 278 odds of winning $200 or more.= 0.3597% x $200 = $0.71
$20 ticket - 1 in 22.92 odds of winning $100 or more.= 4.363% x $100 =$4.36
$20 ticket - 1 in 11.72 odds of winning $50 or more.=8.5324% x $50 = $4.27

Expected Value of $10 ticket = $4.67
$10 ticket - 1 in 1,300 odds of winning $200 or more.=0.0769% x $200=$0.15
$10 ticket - 1 in 42.76 odds of winning $100 or more.=2.3386% x $100=$2.34
$10 ticket - 1 in 22.92 odds of winning $50 or more.=4.363% x $50= $2.18

Expected Value of $5 ticket = $1.32
$5 ticket - 1 in 983 odds of winning $100 or more.= 0.1017% x $100 = $0.10
$5 ticket - 1 in 41.03 odds of winning $50 or more.= 2.4372% x $50 = $1.22

Please note that the expected values of each ticket is only as good as the information provided and some assumptions of prize independence may not hold.
 
You're trying to beat a system that cannot be beaten. If it could, don't you think someone would've done it by now? I can assure you that you're not the first person to do the math on this.

Like I said earlier, the house always wins.
 
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