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k3mot

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Sep 12, 2022
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Are there already rumors regarding next year's series? I'm considering skipping this one.

Thanks!
 
Are there already rumors regarding next year's series? I'm considering skipping this one.

Thanks!
Rumors are fun and exciting, especially when coming from a somewhat reliable source (Ming Chi Kwo, Ross Young, Mark Gurman, etc…) but I wouldn’t rely on any of them to consider a future purchase. Especially this early in the cycle. The early rumors last year for the S8 doubled down on the squared off edges and look where we are now lol.
 
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Personally I think the following might come with the Series 9:
  • S9 SiP - An actually new chip, instead of just the rehashed S6 SiP v3. Perhaps move to 4 nm fabrication
    • Improve battery life and allow for more features in the same form factor
  • 5G Connectivity - As more carriers are flipping LTE towers to 5G, this will be needed to maintain coverage
    • May also see 802.11ac or ax (WiFi 5/6) added
  • Satellite Connectivity - Carried over from the iPhone 14. Might only see this on the Ultra model
  • Several features from the Ultra will trickle down to the Series 9
    • 2000 nit brightness
    • Dual frequency precise GPS
    • Bluetooth 5.3
  • Adding Space Black for the Aluminum models
Series 10 (X?) will probably be when we finally get a redesign to the form factor for an anniversary model
 
My hopes would be a new SIP that supports Bluetooth 5.3 and 5G (even though I do not use the Cellular radio on my SS watch).

I think the brighter display will likely remain an Ultra exclusive for a time since that watch has the larger battery to support it and for product differentiation reasons.

Also believe that satellite support would go to the Ultra first, as well, assuming it can fit the necessary antenna.
 
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I bet a new CPU for sure (current one is not really updated from s6 three years ago, that is long time…)

I am sure too no new sensors (new ones are expected to take some years to develop).

I hope a new micro-LED display, but most likely it is too soon (maybe for S10?). If new CPU + micro-LED, it could last longer…except if Apple decide to keep 18h as usual but for e.g. with brighter screen and new feature energy consuming.

Maybe also a redesign for standard Apple
Watch, with flat screen like the Ultra?

We will see…
 
Personally I think the following might come with the Series 9:
  • S9 SiP - An actually new chip, instead of just the rehashed S6 SiP v3. Perhaps move to 4 nm fabrication
    • Improve battery life and allow for more features in the same form factor
  • 5G Connectivity - As more carriers are flipping LTE towers to 5G, this will be needed to maintain coverage
    • May also see 802.11ac or ax (WiFi 5/6) added
  • Satellite Connectivity - Carried over from the iPhone 14. Might only see this on the Ultra model
  • Several features from the Ultra will trickle down to the Series 9
    • 2000 nit brightness
    • Dual frequency precise GPS
    • Bluetooth 5.3
  • Adding Space Black for the Aluminum models
Series 10 (X?) will probably be when we finally get a redesign to the form factor for an anniversary model

Imho 5G is too soon (more energy consuming, maybe in the future with an Apple modem when available), satellite connectivity maybe the Watch is too small to have the needed antenna. Also 2000 nits for non-Ultra, not sure at all, because it requires more battery (and Ultra has the space for bigger battery), except it micro-LED will be ready.
 
S9 SIP - first real new CPU in 3 years, based on a 3nm process. It may not make the watches much faster, but it should help with battery life. Perhaps we will see some battery life improvement across the board to S9 and Ultra 2 models because of this?

5G - in agreement, 5G comes to the AW.

Satellite - I haven't heard anything about this and I have doubts it is possible in the form factor for years to come. I say no...

Ultra trickle down to S9 features? - 2000 nit, Dual band GPS, and Bluetooth 5.3... you bet.

My guesses for additional S9 features: First hyped battery life increase in the regular Apple Watch since version 0. Midnight and Starlight get replaced for colors. Maybe a new optical HR sensor and Apple Watch finally gets 24/7 1 second recording of HR like Garmin / Fitbit have had for years? I'm not sure what else because rumors of blood pressure or blood sugar readings are still years away in terms of tech.

Ultra guesses: More battery life again due to the new CPU. Perhaps a 45mm size for smaller wrists joins the family? Please note... a 45mm version of the Ultra will have a screen roughly the same as the 41mm watch, in the same way the 49mm Ultra has nearly the identical size visible screen area as the regular 45mm (only 1.7% bigger.) I think some major software improvements including extensive cycling metrics join the fray, with BLE links to cadence and power meter sensors. Perhaps Apple's first attempt at taking all this watch data and creating holistic health and recovery scores based on actual workload, workouts, HRV, VO2 max etc.
 
Imho 5G is too soon (more energy consuming, maybe in the future with an Apple modem when available), satellite connectivity maybe the Watch is too small to have the needed antenna. Also 2000 nits for non-Ultra, not sure at all, because it requires more battery (and Ultra has the space for bigger battery), except it micro-LED will be ready.
Ya, I could also see them waiting on 5G until Apple is able to produce their own modems in-house (which I think is now rumored to be 2024 at the earliest). The Apple Watch might be a test run though, since it ships in smaller quantities.

I think we'll definitely be seeing more than just a new chip. It's pretty unlikely it'll be a new sensor since they seem to be on a tick-tock cycle with those and none of the rumored ones seem close to production. Perhaps they might add features from some of their competitors.

I'd expect micro-LED to wait until the Series 10/anniversary model, similar to how OLED first came to iPhone X.

All in all, I think we'll get one more lame update before a huge update for the 10-year anniversary.
 
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Beyond the time needed to develop a new health sensor and calibrate it properly (hardware and software), it then often needs to be submitted to the FDA for approval and that process can take some time.
 
Ya, I could also see them waiting on 5G until Apple is able to produce their own modems in-house (which I think is now rumored to be 2024 at the earliest). The Apple Watch might be a test run though, since it ships in smaller quantities.

I think we'll definitely be seeing more than just a new chip. It's pretty unlikely it'll be a new sensor since they seem to be on a tick-tock cycle with those and none of the rumored ones seem close to production. Perhaps they might add features from some of their competitors.

I'd expect micro-LED to wait until the Series 10/anniversary model, similar to how OLED first came to iPhone X.

All in all, I think we'll get one more lame update before a huge update for the 10-year anniversary.

yup, I think S9 will be underwhelming feature-wise but likely to come in splashy new colors and more battery life as the big headliners. they like to keep the bodies the same for 3 years and next year will be the last of the current gen cycle.
 
Rumors are fun and exciting, especially when coming from a somewhat reliable source (Ming Chi Kwo, Ross Young, Mark Gurman, etc…) but I wouldn’t rely on any of them to consider a future purchase. Especially this early in the cycle. The early rumors last year for the S8 doubled down on the squared off edges and look where we are now lol.
That's wise thinking.
 
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Keep also in mind the Apple strategy and marketing, not only technological capabilities. About Watches the strategy was always to proceed with very small incremental steps. Usually:

1) No more than one single bigger feature each iteration, used as main marketing argument
2) Another one/two minor features
3) Some software new features marketed in Apple Watch presentation (but usually at least partially available ALSO on older models with WatchOS update)

So, if it follow the same pattern, for S9, the 1° will be for sure new S9 SIP (the market argument will be 'the fastest Apple Watch ever'). About minor feature, what about, instead of 5G (as I said, too soon for me), a single, world wide frequency compatible Apple Watch? Now there are 3 different regions with different radio chip; keep in mind that in WatchOS 9 we have finally the roaming supported! So, to complement it, a fully world wide radio chip could be the next marketing argument.

Finally, about software new feature, I can suggest a fever alert (that will be retro compatible with S8 too)
 
Keep also in mind the Apple strategy and marketing, not only technological capabilities. About Watches the strategy was always to proceed with very small incremental steps. Usually:

1) No more than one single bigger feature each iteration, used as main marketing argument
2) Another one/two minor features
3) Some software new features marketed in Apple Watch presentation (but usually at least partially available ALSO on older models with WatchOS update)

So, if it follow the same pattern, for S9, the 1° will be for sure new S9 SIP (the market argument will be 'the fastest Apple Watch ever'). About minor feature, what about, instead of 5G (as I said, too soon for me), a single, world wide frequency compatible Apple Watch? Now there are 3 different regions with different radio chip; keep in mind that in WatchOS 9 we have finally the roaming supported! So, to complement it, a fully world wide radio chip could be the next marketing argument.

Finally, about software new feature, I can suggest a fever alert (that will be retro compatible with S8 too)
btw I already imagine a stupid keynote showing how it is a “revolution” to known in real time if you have fever. But everybody know if he has fever without any tool 😂 usually we use a thermometer to measure fever (assuming that your body are already telling you that you have) and to discover how much is severe, but wristwatch sensor are unable to have a real measure so… useless!

As useless as connected bottles that remember you to drink 🤣
 
Unlike many optimistic predictions, my prognosis is more grim, from very likely (5) to least likely (1).
  • Bluetooth 5.3 (5): It's strange that only Apple Watch Ultra has Bluetooth 5.3.
  • All new S9 (4): It's no open secret that S8 still using 7nm A13's efficiency cores. Adopting 2 of the 4 efficiency cores on the latest 5nm A16 should significantly reduce the energy use.
  • Redesign (3): I don't expect a major redesign, but with Ultra possibly squeezing out Stainless Steel's sale figure, Apple will be pressured to bring few design changes. My predictions: (1) true edge-to-edge flat-edged top screen and (2) solid state buttons (Ultra's Action and existing Side buttons) and Digital Crown.
  • Dual Band GPS (2): This feature sounds like Ultra-exclusive feature to me.
  • Brighter Screen (2): Given non-ultra's svelte form factor with a small battery, I don't see this happening. I personally find S7's screen to be plenty bright.
  • Satellite (1): If Apple couldn't figure out a way to squeeze in satellite to Ultra, it isn't happening on the Series 9.
  • 5G (1): Apple is working on their own cellular modem, but rumors point to 2024 as the likely launch. Qualcomm's 5G just isn't small and efficient enough for Apple Watch's small form factor.
  • Blood Pressure Monitoring (1): Likewise, the sensor for blood pressure monitoring is widely rumored for 2024-2025 release.
  • Glucose Monitoring (1): This looks to be even further away than blood pressure monitoring.
 
Unlike many optimistic predictions, my prognosis is more grim, from very likely (5) to least likely (1).
  • Bluetooth 5.3 (5): It's strange that only Apple Watch Ultra has Bluetooth 5.3.
  • All new S9 (4): It's no open secret that S8 still using 7nm A13's efficiency cores. Adopting 2 of the 4 efficiency cores on the latest 5nm A16 should significantly reduce the energy use.
  • Redesign (3): I don't expect a major redesign, but with Ultra possibly squeezing out Stainless Steel's sale figure, Apple will be pressured to bring few design changes. My predictions: (1) true edge-to-edge flat-edged top screen and (2) solid state buttons (Ultra's Action and existing Side buttons) and Digital Crown.
  • Dual Band GPS (2): This feature sounds like Ultra-exclusive feature to me.
  • Brighter Screen (2): Given non-ultra's svelte form factor with a small battery, I don't see this happening. I personally find S7's screen to be plenty bright.
  • Satellite (1): If Apple couldn't figure out a way to squeeze in satellite to Ultra, it isn't happening on the Series 9.
  • 5G (1): Apple is working on their own cellular modem, but rumors point to 2024 as the likely launch. Qualcomm's 5G just isn't small and efficient enough for Apple Watch's small form factor.
  • Blood Pressure Monitoring (1): Likewise, the sensor for blood pressure monitoring is widely rumored for 2024-2025 release.
  • Glucose Monitoring (1): This looks to be even further away than blood pressure monitoring.
It really seems like 2024-2025 is when we'll finally get the long awaited "big" update. I'd say at least by 2025 since that's the 10th anniversary (Original AW was released April 2015) and I can't imagine the same form factor continuing 10+ years.
 
Unlike many optimistic predictions, my prognosis is more grim, from very likely (5) to least likely (1).
  • Bluetooth 5.3 (5): It's strange that only Apple Watch Ultra has Bluetooth 5.3.
  • All new S9 (4): It's no open secret that S8 still using 7nm A13's efficiency cores. Adopting 2 of the 4 efficiency cores on the latest 5nm A16 should significantly reduce the energy use.
  • Redesign (3): I don't expect a major redesign, but with Ultra possibly squeezing out Stainless Steel's sale figure, Apple will be pressured to bring few design changes. My predictions: (1) true edge-to-edge flat-edged top screen and (2) solid state buttons (Ultra's Action and existing Side buttons) and Digital Crown.
  • Dual Band GPS (2): This feature sounds like Ultra-exclusive feature to me.
  • Brighter Screen (2): Given non-ultra's svelte form factor with a small battery, I don't see this happening. I personally find S7's screen to be plenty bright.
  • Satellite (1): If Apple couldn't figure out a way to squeeze in satellite to Ultra, it isn't happening on the Series 9.
  • 5G (1): Apple is working on their own cellular modem, but rumors point to 2024 as the likely launch. Qualcomm's 5G just isn't small and efficient enough for Apple Watch's small form factor.
  • Blood Pressure Monitoring (1): Likewise, the sensor for blood pressure monitoring is widely rumored for 2024-2025 release.
  • Glucose Monitoring (1): This looks to be even further away than blood pressure monitoring.
Defo will get a new chip, I think covid had a bearing on Apple using the S6 chip for 3 years running.
The design is fine as far as I’m concerned, those that don’t like it now have the polar opposite in the Ultra.

GPS, I just went for a run (S5) and the track is fine for me, lots of improvements since the S3. GPS has its limits, if you want close to perfection get Stryd.

Battery, I think Apple will persist with the 18hrs, for most people it is fine to charge every day.
I even think they will stick with 36-60hrs for the Ultra line and just add features, Garmin lovers love to hark on about not charging their watch for a month but honestly, who needs that kind of battery on a smartwatch? Maybe if you are a 99.99% ultra runners.
I would sooner have more features and trade off.

5G, on watch? Nice to have but kind of pointless really.
 
GPS, I just went for a run (S5) and the track is fine for me, lots of improvements since the S3. GPS has its limits, if you want close to perfection get Stryd.

5G, on watch? Nice to have but kind of pointless really.
Regarding GPS, the current implementation is a bit wonky if you are surrounded by tall buildings or trees. So it could be improved, provided it is possible to squeeze in additional hardware.

5G can be useful not necessarily for the throughput, but for coverage. And there's satellite-based texting service. T-Mobile will be implementing it late 2023, but it will require 5G. I suspect many carriers will be implementing a similar service.
 
I doubt there will be any new sensors in AW9.

These three sensors are still 3-4 years away:

- blood glucose
- blood pressure (this one will require a special band with sensors, which I'm sure Apple is already working on)
- carbon monoxide
 
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I am hoping for an update of the optical reader, even if the sensors are the same at least made smaller/more power efficient, it has been the same hardware for 3 revisions now.
 
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S9 SIP - first real new CPU in 3 years, based on a 3nm process. It may not make the watches much faster, but it should help with battery life. Perhaps we will see some battery life improvement across the board to S9 and Ultra 2 models because of this?

5G - in agreement, 5G comes to the AW.

Satellite - I haven't heard anything about this and I have doubts it is possible in the form factor for years to come. I say no...

Ultra trickle down to S9 features? - 2000 nit, Dual band GPS, and Bluetooth 5.3... you bet.

My guesses for additional S9 features: First hyped battery life increase in the regular Apple Watch since version 0. Midnight and Starlight get replaced for colors. Maybe a new optical HR sensor and Apple Watch finally gets 24/7 1 second recording of HR like Garmin / Fitbit have had for years? I'm not sure what else because rumors of blood pressure or blood sugar readings are still years away in terms of tech.

Ultra guesses: More battery life again due to the new CPU. Perhaps a 45mm size for smaller wrists joins the family? Please note... a 45mm version of the Ultra will have a screen roughly the same as the 41mm watch, in the same way the 49mm Ultra has nearly the identical size visible screen area as the regular 45mm (only 1.7% bigger.) I think some major software improvements including extensive cycling metrics join the fray, with BLE links to cadence and power meter sensors. Perhaps Apple's first attempt at taking all this watch data and creating holistic health and recovery scores based on actual workload, workouts, HRV, VO2 max etc.

Man, I hope you’re correct. These are my most desired improvements! It would be an instant buy for me.
 
My guess would be a few trickle-down features from the Ultra, and not a lot else.
S9 Chip
Dual-band GPS
Optical Heart Sensor, Fourth Generation
Bluetooth 5.3
1200 nits

If wishes were fishes...all of those, plus:
Blood glucose monitor
Improved body temperature sensor
Louder microphone
36 hour battery
Satellite communication
 
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