Any logic to figure out when your laptop will stop getting OS update

[niray9]

Hi guys,

New to the forum & excited to be here!

My mid 2012 retina will get macOS Catalina update this year, & I'm trying to figure out IF it will/might get an macOS update in 2020.

Is there any way to predict when your laptop will stop getting macOS updates? Is it strictly by number of years (7?? years) or by capabilities of the laptop(for e.g. Mojave was limited to MacPros with metal capable GPUs)?

Btw, before the release of the 2019 macbook pro, Apple would give me a trade-in value for my laptop. Since the release of the 2019 macbook pro, Apple will only recycle it for me. Is that a clue that my laptop is no longer supported & won't be possibly from an OS update perspective going forward?

Thanks!

 

[niray9]

Any guesses?

 

[xb2003]

This will likely be your last year. The 2012 and 2013 were both Ivy Bridge CPUs, 2014 went to Haswell. I would anticipate both the 2012 and 2013 rMBP loosing support in 10.16, as well as the 2012 Minis and the non-Retina iMacs.

 

[niray9]

Okay.... no more OS updates for my 2012 15" MBP as was discussed by this thread.

Now, this new ARM move by Apple means I have to wait for a long time to figure out what to do.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Hi guys,

New to the forum & excited to be here!

My mid 2012 retina will get macOS Catalina update this year, & I'm trying to figure out IF it will/might get an macOS update in 2020.

Is there any way to predict when your laptop will stop getting macOS updates? Is it strictly by number of years (7?? years) or by capabilities of the laptop(for e.g. Mojave was limited to MacPros with metal capable GPUs)?

Btw, before the release of the 2019 macbook pro, Apple would give me a trade-in value for my laptop. Since the release of the 2019 macbook pro, Apple will only recycle it for me. Is that a clue that my laptop is no longer supported & won't be possibly from an OS update perspective going forward?

Thanks!

The short answer: No.

The longer answer: You can't predict when Apple will call it quits on supporting your current Mac because typically (at least in the Intel Mac era) they do it due to introducing a key feature in macOS that requires a feature present on newer generation hardware. Sometimes (in the case of 2013 iMac owners), it's as simple as a component isn't supported by the vendor anymore and Apple cannot get an updated driver produced for it. Neither one of those scenarios are really possible to predict.

However, you can at least predict where Apple will draw the lines in terms of its support. For instance, with macOS Mojave, Apple drew the line at Macs that could support Metal. This was basically every Ivy Bridge Mac or newer (with the exception of the 2010 and 2012 Mac Pros that would need a newer video card to make the cut). With Catalina, it stayed mostly the same (The 2010 and 2012 Mac Pro situation proved itself to be a little messy, given that you might not have much control of the Mac's UEFI with an aftermarket card). With Big Sur, it came down to those WiFI drivers and, presumably, the fact that Intel has effectively given up on Ivy Bridge in terms of supporting it with microcode and firmware updates for security.

You won't be able to predict when a hardware component has hit the end of the line in terms of Apple being able to get an updated driver for it (unless you research and keep tabs on all of the components of your Mac) and find out the status of driver support for your particular component (which you can do with an Intel Mac, but likely won't be able to with an Apple Silicon Mac, given how much is integrated in the SoC). Certainly, if there is a big generational change (i.e. going from 7th Gen Intel to 8th Gen Intel or from 8th Gen Intel to 9th/10th Gen Intel; or the jump from A7/A8 to A9, or A10 to A11 or A12), that might be where Apple draws the line. Again, it's really hard to predict unless you really follow what's new in these processors. But as for when Apple decides to drop support, that's near impossible and it's going to get harder to predict once this hardware transition is behind us.