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Well, first of all - those events are hardly significant to move the currency markets. There's a reason why those events are colored yellow/orange. The 'red' ones are important - but not all of them either. The GBP/USD can easily move 300-400 pips when a significant report has been released. Remember, it's all about market 'expectations' rather than the actual news. If the markets are expecting a -5% growth rate, and that report comes out at -5.1% - GBP won't move much - maybe by 10-20 pips at the most.

Since the last 2 years the forex market has been very temperamental - sometimes they rely on equities, sometimes they don't. When global stocks fall - the US$ rallies and so on.

Now look at the Non Farm Payroll report which occurred on Friday. I've seen this pattern a few times before - it was a bad report.. and the US$ actually went up (short term) *gasp* Why is this? Short term, traders anticipate that this bad news will cause the stock market to collapse - so there's a flight to US dollars - this is only short term though. Additionally, the increase in unemployment caused the US interest rate futures to shoot up (increased possibility of a rate hike)

An hour later however, you'll see that the USD started dropping (like it should have in the first place) and EUR/GBP climbing up. I always stay out of the NFP for the first 15 minutes or so - to gauge the market direction. Especially in the current economic environment.

3-4 years ago, it was very simple. Bad job reports? USD sank for an hour non-stop - easy trades. Not so anymore.

Check out the Bank of England's inflation report today (King is going to give a speech) Depending on what he says, GBP has the potential to move hundreds of pips. Good luck!

The infamous Music_Producer! Thanks for taking the time to respond to my question. Still making my way through this thread - up to about page 40 or so.
Appreciate your insight. I'll keep gaining knowledge from here and abroad and hopefully wont bug you with too many elementary styled questions.

From your comments and previous posts (dating back to '06 :eek:) your advice would be to just concentrate solely on big (red) announcements and pay attention to their movements?

Also as I'm only partially way through the thread, has your strategy/trading style deviated too much from a year or two years ago? Obviously you touched on the volatility and unreliability of the market in recent times.

Thanks again, I actually feel like I've made contact with a celebrity of sorts!
 
This baffled me a bit..

Today's German Prelim GDP q/q was released lower than expected (forecast to be 8%, released as 7%). Only dropped about 2 pips (EUR/USD) which surprised me as it's a major announcement on a subject which clearly gives indications of Germany's - and therefore Europe as it's quite an economic power - growth and recuperation.

Is this minor movement due to the fact that it was only 1% off?
Also, this may sound stupid, but is it deemed to be 'not so bad' as it rose from 4% to 7% anyway?

I found this very interesting as I thought even a slight deviation on such a major announcement would create some selling of the EUR.

Any insight would be appreciated!
 
Sorry to bump an old thread, but I'm considering diving in to Forex. I don't have much of a gambler's mentality; I've played various competitive games at high levels (national even) enough that I know how to play on calculated risks and not panic or chase greed and feel I can translate that experience in to discipline.

I've been reading books on technicals, but I don't really know where to start when I decide to actually put a little money down. I figure I'll start with a small amount of money and see how I do. Maybe just a few hundred.

But I'd like to find a good broker and software that doesn't make me want to tear my hair out (like Flash-based pages do). What do the rest of you use or recommend? I know nothing about the brokers/software out there.

Also, have any of you managed to be consistently profitable?
 
Sorry to bump an old thread, but I'm considering diving in to Forex. I don't have much of a gambler's mentality; I've played various competitive games at high levels (national even) enough that I know how to play on calculated risks and not panic or chase greed and feel I can translate that experience in to discipline.

I've been reading books on technicals, but I don't really know where to start when I decide to actually put a little money down. I figure I'll start with a small amount of money and see how I do. Maybe just a few hundred.

But I'd like to find a good broker and software that doesn't make me want to tear my hair out (like Flash-based pages do). What do the rest of you use or recommend? I know nothing about the brokers/software out there.

Also, have any of you managed to be consistently profitable?

I would recommend checking out www.babypips.com, it's a great source of information for someone relatively new into Forex. You should read up on technical vs fundamental analysis and learn both, as it can't hurt. Also find out if you are better suited for day trading or swing trading.

As for brokers and software, I can't necessarily help you too much there, but a few years ago, Oanda.com had a great online free java platform that you could set up a test account for (there weren't many mac compatible options then for stand alone software platforms). Oanda allowed you to create a trading account using the real time data with fake money so you could practice setting up your trades, stop loss, etc. Obviously if you're practicing with fake money, it's best to treat it like real money because there's a HUGE difference in your trading mentality.

Hope this helps, and happy trading! :)
 
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