njmac said:
I couldn't trade this morning, I had to bring my kids somewhere.
Music_Producer,
great trades for you, but I do have a question. Looking back at the announcements and expectations, there were 3 announcements at 8:30am EDT, they all came back lower than expected and if you look at the graph - the EUR/USD made a sharp increase. I know if I was looking real time at the numbers I would have bought but it makes it difficult for me to learn which of these 3 announcements was the important one - and what if all 3 had been different?
... compared to the 9am TIC report, the EUR/USD seemed to move just barely whereas I would have expected a big move like the first announcements of the day.
NOW.... you mentioned that you believe the dollar will be weaker, so the move to strengthen the dollar was small and reversed quickly because of this. So here's my question: if the announcements come out in a way that strengthens the dollar tomorrow, will it be expected to be a quick rise for the dollar, then a quick correction BUT if it weakens the dollar - we can expect a BIG move because the dollar is headed weaker???
I am so sorry if this seems too basic for you, I truly am trying not to lose my money. When one thing is happening - its easy for me to see what's happening. When multiple announcements occur, I'm just not sure sometimes what happened.
Hey guys, weird.. I replied to this post earlier today and it doesn't show up here
Anyway, let me try and remember what I typed!!
The cpi numbers are the most important nj.. and the ppi. Cpi .. ppi.. ok ok, i'll try not to make a silly song about it.
Trading multiple announcements is quite tricky.. since you have to evaluate the overall outcome the reports can have on the currency. In today's case.. everything was negative (at 8.30 am EST) so the Eur jumped. And anyway, like i had mentioned yesterday.. i thought that the usd was overbought.. so its time for banks to sell it a bit.
Lets say you had 3 results - cpi at 0%, cpi ex food and energy at 0% and trade balance at -10 million.
Now cpi comes out at 0.1%, cpi ex food and energy comes out at 0.1% too.. but trade balance comes out at 50 million. In other words.. the deviation on the cpis are small .. but the trade balance deviation is huge. So the market will latch on to that.. because obviously a positive trade balance is good for the economy.. and you will see the currency rise.
If they are conflicting.. I don't trade. for e.g. cpi 0.1% cpi ex food and energy -0.1% and trade balance stays about the same at -10 million.
Today's trade was a no brainer.. i saw all the reports were bad.. so i bought the eur. The TIC came out positive.. so i sold the eur and took my profits.. but since the Eur was in an upward 'trend' anyway, the Eur shot back up. Also.. and more importantly.. the TIC report is not that significant as the cpi and ppi reports. So it was just a knee jerk reaction.. but i look to grab the most out of every report.
Tomorrow's reports are quite important too.. the cpi ex. food and energy. Regarding housing starts.. most of the time, the numbers always come out as expected. I expect the housing starts to come out lower than expected though.. real estate's obviously not looking good. But then i ain't bernanke
I'm questioning myself if i should trade the JPY and the GBP today.. since the Bank of japan and bank of england minutes come out .. but probably not.
About the news reports.. i find that tradethenews.com comes out a second earlier than oanda. Oanda's news reports are fantastic.. but anything that buys me more time obviously helps. Some canadian reports don't even show up on oanda's news server.. tradethenews displays those.
I don't know about fxcm news.. i'm quite disappointed with their trading.. they never executed any of my trades when i wanted them to.. so i won't come close to anything with 'fxcm' on it.
If you get serious about trading.. subscribe to bloomberg.. no doubt about it. When I start trading 3-5 million lots (*if* i do) then i will subscribe to it.. it maybe $1700 a month.. but i can make 3 times that amount in 3 seconds with that kind of no-lag news.
And lastly.. you all are sleepyheads
I almost missed today's trading.. because i traded the gbp at 1.30 am PST.. and then i was really tired (have family over) so i tried staying up till 4 am.. fell asleep.. woke up at 5.17 am
Anyway, part of my profits went for second row concert seats to see Mariah Carey with my wife
Help!!!!
Edit - Oops, almost forgot to answer another question nj (about the trend).. yes.. for e.g. if the USD is in a downward trend.. and the news are good for the USD.. the spike will be temporary. Not all the time though.. for e.g. if us interest rates are scheduled to be announced.. and everyone expects them to stay the same.. and they are hiked..the USD will then break that downward trend.. because thats a pretty big announcement. Small news stuff doesn't affect the currency that much.
