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Anyone here into FOREX?

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Hey Elfin, I was ready to trade the ECB interest rate decision too.. but as usual, those folks didn't surprise the market. I was waiting for a hike in rates.. unexpected of course.. but i was ready anyway (just like the bank of england raised rates last month and the pound shot up by 80-100 pips)

These last 2 weeks have been absolutely boring with news reports coming out same as expected (mostly) Honestly, even if the spread does go to 15 pips.. there is a lot of profit to be made if the news deviation is there. Remember that I have traded the GBP/USD with a 15 pip spread and achieved anywhere from 10-40 pips profit.

I traded the ECB chief's speech.. he was a bit hawkish so the euro went up by 15 pips.. I got only 6.. but atleast I got something today. I wasn't going to let a good trade go waste :p

All this while I have been watching the quotes on GFT Forex.. they remained at 3 pip spread for EUR/USD constantly.. no changes.
 
A nice 90pip gain this morning sipping coffee. Oh, wait, that was just a dream:( I'm looking for a good article or something to explain news trading, because the newsletter from forexbastards.com said to be watching, but I still don't understand what these interest rates are and how they affect the currencies. Could somebody please direct me to some information please? Thanks:)


PS I don't understand why people still talk about oanda.. there are so many better brokerages and online platforms.. like forex.com.. and my favorite www.cmsfx.com
 
TheTrader said:
A nice 90pip gain this morning sipping coffee. Oh, wait, that was just a dream:( I'm looking for a good article or something to explain news trading, because the newsletter from forexbastards.com said to be watching, but I still don't understand what these interest rates are and how they affect the currencies. Could somebody please direct me to some information please? Thanks:)




PS I don't understand why people still talk about oanda.. there are so many better brokerages and online platforms.. like forex.com.. and my favorite www.cmsfx.com
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Honestly, if you go back and read all the posts from this thread, you will learn a lot about trading the news. I made notes from this thread into a word doc. and it worked really well.

Soooo, read this thread and watch each announcement and take notes about what happened. Keep reading about what the market is expecting, and then watch what happens at the actual announcement. If you have a specific question, post here.

I have done nothing this week because I'm on vacation but I do plan to get back into it next week.
 
TheTrader said:
A nice 90pip gain this morning sipping coffee. Oh, wait, that was just a dream:( I'm looking for a good article or something to explain news trading, because the newsletter from forexbastards.com said to be watching, but I still don't understand what these interest rates are and how they affect the currencies. Could somebody please direct me to some information please? Thanks:)


PS I don't understand why people still talk about oanda.. there are so many better brokerages and online platforms.. like forex.com.. and my favorite www.cmsfx.com
Click to expand...

I've tried all the brokers.. nobody gives me instant execution like Oanda does. A 3 pip spread is good in theory with other brokers, but useless when you need immediate order executions. Limit orders never get filled, market orders get filled at crazy rates.. positions get closed 10 seconds later.. and so on. So yes, even though the spread is horibble at Oanda, I'm still sticking with them because of their flawless operation.

When I find a broker who offers me decent spreads and same order execution as Oanda, then I'll definitely switch.

As for interest rates affecting currencies - simple. If the US interest rate is 5%.. investors from all over the world will deposit their money in US banks to earn interest on their deposits. Would you want to put your hard earned money in a Japanese bank and earn 0% interest? No.

So whenever there are talks of interest rate hikes for a particular currency.. that currency goes up and vice versa. The markets buy/sell more on rumors though than the actual news. For e.g.

The markets expect that the Feds will not raise interest rates again. The Fed chief keeps giving speeches in which its evident that interest rates are not going to be touched. On the day that the interest rate decision is to be made.. if the rates are not touched.. there will be a mild reaction (USD dropping) However, if they do raise the rates.. thereby shocking everybody.. the USD will rise by 80-120 pips for sure.

The speeches that these guys give also move the currencies.. because you can analyze what they are saying.. whether they are hinting at a rate hike or pause.. and so on.
 
Didn't enter this one.. no deviation at all from the expected number (128 v 125.. ooooh!) Good thing I skipped.. the spread was 15 pips again.. and there was hardly any movement.
 
I traded with CMC yesterday and found their execution speed to be quite acceptable. I was just using market orders, but everything got filled almost instantaneously and I have no complaints at all. Pip spreads NEVER move (EUR/USD is always 2 pips), margin is only 1%, and the platform is slick. I still think Oanda's interface has some advantages, but perhaps it's just me not being used to CMC yet either. Two things I didn't like was that it's
a little more difficult to enter stop losses (have to do it as a separate order) and that the charts only update by the minute, not on 5 second intervals like Oanda, however in a way you shouldn't be trading the charts, you should be trading the news at watching the spreads themselves. ;) :cool:

The platform overall is quite comprehensive and powerful - I think I will be using it in the future. It allows me to do margin trading on international markets, with which I can trade indicies, forex, sectors, commodities (contracts and spot), etc. - and it is very responsive. It also gives me great control over orders, allowing me to do OCO orders and the like, which my current online platform doesn't. I realize this is a forex thread, and that's our main interest, but being a trader in general, these things really interest me as well. ;) :)
 
Music_Producer said:
Didn't enter this one.. no deviation at all from the expected number (128 v 125.. ooooh!) Good thing I skipped.. the spread was 15 pips again.. and there was hardly any movement.
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mm for some reason it didn't look that bad .... made 10 pips :)
 
Hoef said:
mm for some reason it didn't look that bad .... made 10 pips :)
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Thats awesome Hoef :) .. although for me it was horrible, since I have traded NFPs before.. and there are moves of 60-90 pips. So this was rather lame (for me atleast)

Shard, I'll be wiring some funds in my GFT forex account and try a few trades next week. Will let you guys know how it works out. And we're interested in every investment field.. not just forex :D Its just that ,how do you predict where oil will go, or gold will be in the future? Common sense says they will rise.. but who knows? I guess I have always been a little less confident about long term trading.
 
Music_Producer said:
Shard, I'll be wiring some funds in my GFT forex account and try a few trades next week. Will let you guys know how it works out. And we're interested in every investment field.. not just forex :D Its just that ,how do you predict where oil will go, or gold will be in the future? Common sense says they will rise.. but who knows? I guess I have always been a little less confident about long term trading.
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I've been trading commodities and commodity-related stocks for quite a while, so I have a good handle on how things behave, for the most part. ;) :cool: With many things like this, seasonality actually has a big part to play. There are tangible economic factors why gold (as an example) is seasonally strong between certain months, and historically a trade during those months has returned positive gains 10 out of the last 10 years. You can't trade based on that alone, of course, but it definitely helps. I'll do that for commodities, financials and even fertilizer stocks... ;) :D

I can get into it more later if you like, but for now I'm going to finish catching up on my other threads here and hit the sack. 'Night all... :cool:
 
Wow, this has been a great thread.

One more question: if you're holding a foreign currency, such as AUD, is it possible to pull this money out and get AUD cash? I'm just wondering because I talked to a guy one time who claimed that when he traveled he would exchange in a forex account and avoid the ridiculous fees that one pays to exchange money in this country.

Also, I'm practicing in my game account trading on fundamentals... I'm printing out economic calendars as we speak and I will be trading them and making notes about the results over the next 3-4 months. When I "go live" I expect to trade solely on fundamentals.

But I'm also curious about technical trading. Looking at some of the daily charts I can see that there are huge profits to make just taking advantage of natural cycles, if one can only find a reliable way to predict them. I know there are a lot of tools out there to analyze investment strategies, but I would like to write my own. (I'm a professional developer but I majored in econ in school.)

What kinds of features should go into a piece of software like this? I was thinking that the interface would have two parts. In one part, you select a dataset (e.g. historical prices for USD/JPY), and the software provides some rudimentary charting/analysis tools. In the other part you select an "investment strategy" plug in (would be written in Java also), and the software runs the plugin on the chosen dataset. The plugin would be fed one piece of data at a time in chronological order, just like a trader sees the market. At any given point in time, the plug-in can execute an order (market, limit, box, etc.). This software would produce a chart that shows when this strategy would buy and sell, and what the net profit would be.

If anybody is interested I will post back with the results and seek some constructive criticism. I've got a good understanding of economics and computers, but I don't have the experience (I'm 23) to know exactly what this software ought to do. Comments encouraged
 
Thanks for the post savar, great to have you as a member of this thread. :) I have had enough experience investing to tell you that, whether it is Forex or otherwise, past results are no indication of future performance, so technical analysis can only take you so far. A stock can be indicating a double bottom with a low RSI for instance, and just when you think it will go up, the company announces a major setback and the stock tanks - and then your predictive charting is out the window - such are the limitations of technical analysis. That being said, they are an important part (but only a part) or the overall picture, combined with fundamentals as an example.

Me, I trade on news, fundamentals, pre-news, and technicals - the whole shooting match, depending on the situation and my investment strategy with whichever security I'm focusing on.

So, I guess what I'm saying is that I think you can get burned by simply trying to calculate patterns and the corresponding buy/sell opportunities, however they do exist if you could somehow accurately predict them, so I'm definitely interested in any progress you make in pursuing this. I'm not sure how I could be of assistance, but let me know if you can think of anything. :cool:

Again, welcome to the thread, hopefully it's been of benefit to you. If you have any other questions, post away. I am not as experienced and well-versed in forex specifically as some other members here are (they put me to shame!), however I have expertise in other areas of fiance and investing, so it's all good - together, we make a good team here, I'd like to think. ;) :cool:
 
savar said:
Wow, this has been a great thread.
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Welcome to the Forex thread. :) You can PM music_producer with your email address and join our .mac group.


I don't think software that can execute your trade automatically is a good idea. Let's say your technical indicators say that you should buy the USD. Everything lines up on the charts for a move.... then a terrorist strike happens in the US. Your charts could NEVER have predicted that, and your trade goes south very, very quickly. You could lose everything.

I would love to know how, as an econ major, how you easy you will find trading forex. I imagine it will give you a huge advantage. You will probably grasp the news releases and their meanings/effects more easily. I wish I had majored in economics.
 
njmac said:
I would love to know how, as an econ major, how you easy you will find trading forex. I imagine it will give you a huge advantage. You will probably grasp the news releases and their meanings/effects more easily. I wish I had majored in economics.
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My philosophy is it's never to late to learn. ;) :cool:
 
Hey Savar, welcome to the thread :) I don't think you can pull out cash in other currencies if your base currency (the one in which the account is opened with) is different. If you open an account with USD, you can only withdraw USD.

Shard.. nice avatar btw :D
 
This one has to be the fastest trade I ever carried out.. you can see from the pic, I got in right before the dip. Tradethenews got this one out pretty quick.. and Oanda kept the GBP/USD spread very reasonable to 5 pips. Bagged a 7 pip profit :D

The report was the UK Services PMI.. came out slightly lower than expected.

Picture 25.png
 
Couple of possible trades tomorrow..

4.30 am EST GBP/USD - GBP Industrial production - I will only trade this if the spread on GBP/USD is decent - if its 15 pips, I will not be trading. Usually the spread widens about a minute or 40 seconds before the news announcement.

8.30 am EST EUR/USD - USD Nonfarm productivity

9 am EST - USD/CAD - Canadian interest rate decision. I just watched the Aussie interest rate decision and they kept the rates the same..so no trade. Tomorrow, its widely expected that the Canadian interest rates will be kept the same.. but if they do raise them.. I will sell USD/CAD

10 am EST is USD ISM non-manufacturing index.. but i am usually asleep before that time :D
 
Music_Producer said:
Couple of possible trades tomorrow..

4.30 am EST GBP/USD - GBP Industrial production - I will only trade this if the spread on GBP/USD is decent - if its 15 pips, I will not be trading. Usually the spread widens about a minute or 40 seconds before the news announcement.

8.30 am EST EUR/USD - USD Nonfarm productivity

9 am EST - USD/CAD - Canadian interest rate decision. I just watched the Aussie interest rate decision and they kept the rates the same..so no trade. Tomorrow, its widely expected that the Canadian interest rates will be kept the same.. but if they do raise them.. I will sell USD/CAD

10 am EST is USD ISM non-manufacturing index.. but i am usually asleep before that time :D
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Thanks for the head's up Music_Producer. I won't be able to trade tomorrow since I have to go into work early, but I'll definitely watch the announcements and see how it affects the currency pairs. You can observe a lot just by looking. ;) :)
 
Oi! Hello again, everyone! I'm going to try to hit up tomorrow's trades, but it all depends on how early I get up. School starts in two days, so I should probably try to get back on my early-morning schedule :)

savar and TheTrader, welcome to the club!
 
What are pips?

I happened across this thread accidentally, and I'm fascinated. What are pips, please?
 
No trades as yet.. everything was as expected.. but holy cr$p!!!!!! The 24 inch iMac just got launched :eek: :D :eek: :D Thats more exciting than a 70 pip profit lol

Wb elfin! Good luck with rearranging your sleep schedule.. I hate doing that (when i fly overseas) I'm all awake right now.. looking at the imac specs.. guess I'll have to drink a beer to go to sleep :p
 
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