Anyone here into FOREX?

[nhallmark]

Really? I hadn't looked into tradethenews yet myself (on my to-do list this week actually) but I wouldn't have thought the price differential between text and audio would be so great.

Here's the page...https://www.tradethenews.com/subscribe.php

I guess they have to pay the guy to talk into the mic, but I don't think they pay him that much. Anyway, I played with the audio in my trial, but I havent actually traded wih it. It would be worth it, but its not really cost effective for me right now because Im not making real money.

On another note, I looked through the pages in this thread trying to find something about taxes because I remember you guys talking about it but I cant find it. So, what do you do at tax time?

Do you take screenshots of every trade? Or is the transaction history enough? Or do you just tell your accountant "I made this much "

 

[~Shard~]

Here's the page...https://www.tradethenews.com/subscribe.php

I guess they have to pay the guy to talk into the mic, but I don't think they pay him that much. Anyway, I played with the audio in my trial, but I havent actually traded wih it. It would be worth it, but its not really cost effective for me right now because Im not making real money.

Thanks, I'll check it out myself and sign up for the trial in the new year, preferably around the time that a lot of key announcements are being released..

On another note, I looked through the pages in this thread trying to find something about taxes because I remember you guys talking about it but I cant find it. So, what do you do at tax time?

Do you take screenshots of every trade? Or is the transaction history enough? Or do you just tell your accountant "I made this much "

Just like any other trading I do, I will simply be taking my monthly statements to my accountant. I don't think there should be anything too complicated with it, but perhaps Music_Producer could shed further light on it.

 

[~Shard~]

So Music_Producer, what's your take on the BoJ interest rate announcement on Tuesday this week? Are you still in your AUD/JPY carry trade? I am as well. If Japan does indeed hike rates, that should hurt the carry trade, correct? Are you going to close your position before the announcement? What do you figure will happen?

 

[Music_Producer]

Hey nhallmark.. for taxes, I believe its Schedule D (capital gains) I do all my taxes on quicken+turbotax.. I wouldn't go to an accountant when I could do the same thing myself. I do my taxes usually when I'm on vacation somewhere.. that's when I can do them peacefully You don't need to take screenshots.. I don't even keep the transaction statements.. all that matters is the profit (or loss) that you have made.

Shard, JPY interest rates should be unchanged.. but let's see what the BOJ chief says. I'm still in the carry trade.. even if the BOJ guy says 'we need to raise interest rates' aud/jpy might dip 50 or so pips.. but eventually get back up again.

 

[~Shard~]

I wouldn't go to an accountant when I could do the same thing myself.

Yeah, that's not a bad idea if you can manage it. Alas, my taxes are so complicated I decided a few years back it simply wasn't worth my time and effort to do them myself anymore and I went to an accountant. Since then I have been receiving much greater returns, as my accountant is finding lots of deductions I used to always miss. As well, I'm into stocks, bonds, flow-through entities, convertible debentures, income trusts, limited partnerships... with all the tax implications, write-offs, conversions, adjusted cost bases and corresponding interest (some on an annual accrual basis, some not) and a whole bunch of other factors, for me at least it is worth the few hundred dollars to get them done quick and get them done right. Plus, if CRA ever comes after me I'm protected form audits since I have had an accountant do my taxes. Just one less thing to worry about for me.

Shard, JPY interest rates should be unchanged.. but let's see what the BOJ chief says. I'm still in the carry trade.. even if the BOJ guy says 'we need to raise interest rates' aud/jpy might dip 50 or so pips.. but eventually get back up again.

Yeah, I believe they should remain unchanged as well, but as a result if there's a surprise, I was concerned about the resultant dip. But, as you say, if there is one it will probably (hopefully!) just be temporary. Plus, it seems like there are so many people who use this currency pair for carry trading that "they" almost won't let it tank.

And to confirm, with the US PPI #s coming out on Tuesday, this is a measure of inflation, correct? So if the #s are high, although you'd think high = good news for the US, it's actually bad, because it is a sign of rising inflation which means the country might have to cut interest rates to curb the rising inflation, thus making the currency less valuable for investors - correct?

 

[Music_Producer]

Shard, I've wasted so much time on doing taxes as well.. and at one point I was almost going to get an accountant.. but I just like to do things myself for some reason. Oh.. and if I had a variety of investments like you have.. I would probably use an accountant too. I just love the DIY approach .. the tougher, the better It's also a good learning process, and in the end I couldn't beleive how simple it was, and how much accountants make for something that you can do in a couple of hours (or minutes, if you are very organized from the start)


Coming to the PPI, yes, if it's a higher number.. that means inflation is still a threat.. but I think you got that part wrong where you mentioned 'interest rates will be cut to curb inflation' No, its the opposite. If inflation goes higher, interest rates have to be raised to slow down inflation. So, if the PPI (or CPI) numbers are more.. that means the markets will expect the Feds to raise interest rates. This is also why the $ went down on Friday.. as the CPI came out at 0% (expected at 0.2%) So everyone thought 'Oh great, Bernanke is not going to hike rates.. or he will cut rates)

Basically.. 2 types of reports

1. Inflation measuring reports (CPI, PPI, etc) More inflation = greater chance of rate hike = upward move in currency (whatever it may be - GBP or USD etc)
2. Economic growth reports (GDP, etc) - Better number, obviously higher the currency will go .. because a strong economy is good news.

And i'm pissed that Cisco launched the iPhone

Edit :- Forgot to answer your previous question - I find that the tradethenews audio feed is a second or two earlier than the text report.. so yes, it makes a huge difference when trading. Now, bloomberg is 2-3 seconds faster than the tradethenews audio feed.. so you can imagine the advantage you have while trading with a bloomberg platform next to you. Then again, you're paying for it.

 

[thebear]

Need some help please. I have been trying the Oanda demo and cannot change anything, chart type, pairs, time, nothing. What am I doing wrong? Thanks for any help. New to forex, not new to Macs.

 

[nhallmark]

Thanks for the info on taxes.

Im pissed off about the iphone, also, but hopefully, this just means apple is done with the "i" thing...and we'll still see a phone at macworld.

I didn't trade the US current account this morning because the numbers were roughly as expected and Im glad because it didn't move that much anyway.

thebear, try clearing your cookies, cache, etc. and make sure you have the latest version of java installed and try again. Also, try just logging out and back in. It's happened to me before and I just closed the window and logged back in and it was fine.

 

[~Shard~]

Shard, I've wasted so much time on doing taxes as well.. and at one point I was almost going to get an accountant.. but I just like to do things myself for some reason. Oh.. and if I had a variety of investments like you have.. I would probably use an accountant too. I just love the DIY approach .. the tougher, the better. It's also a good learning process, and in the end I couldn't beleive how simple it was, and how much accountants make for something that you can do in a couple of hours (or minutes, if you are very organized from the start)

Yeah, I totally know where you're coming from. I'm that way too, and as I said, did my own taxes up until only a couple years ago. I ended up missing things, misunderstanding things (and subsequently refiling) and (now that I've seen what my accountant did) outright missed some deductions I could have made. But yes, I'm the type who prefers DIY as well - after all, we do all our investing on our own, right?

Coming to the PPI, yes, if it's a higher number.. that means inflation is still a threat.. but I think you got that part wrong where you mentioned 'interest rates will be cut to curb inflation' No, its the opposite. If inflation goes higher, interest rates have to be raised to slow down inflation. So, if the PPI (or CPI) numbers are more.. that means the markets will expect the Feds to raise interest rates. This is also why the $ went down on Friday.. as the CPI came out at 0% (expected at 0.2%) So everyone thought 'Oh great, Bernanke is not going to hike rates.. or he will cut rates)

Ooops, you're right, I'm not sure why I typed that. Yes, obviously if inflation goes higher interest rates have to be raised to slow it down. Thanks for the correction.

Basically.. 2 types of reports

1. Inflation measuring reports (CPI, PPI, etc) More inflation = greater chance of rate hike = upward move in currency (whatever it may be - GBP or USD etc)
2. Economic growth reports (GDP, etc) - Better number, obviously higher the currency will go .. because a strong economy is good news.

... And thanks for the summary.

Edit :- Forgot to answer your previous question - I find that the tradethenews audio feed is a second or two earlier than the text report.. so yes, it makes a huge difference when trading. Now, bloomberg is 2-3 seconds faster than the tradethenews audio feed.. so you can imagine the advantage you have while trading with a bloomberg platform next to you. Then again, you're paying for it.

Yeah, exactly - you get what you pay for! I'll definitely give the tradethenews platform a try in the New Year - I'll just pick a busy week in terms of economic data (and potential trades) to make the most of the 1-week free trial.

In a way, it doesn't seem like tradethenews and Bloomberg would/should be that much faster (a couple seconds is an eternity in this game!) because even with Oanda's new service, the news comes out almost at the same time as the spike - a little bit after in most cases. With tradethenews can you actually get in "comfortably" before the spike (and by comfortably I mean .5 seconds or so)? You say it's 2-3 seconds faster? And with Bloomberg you would then, in theory, be able to get in well before the spike (a whole second or two)??? However with all the institutions using Bloomberg you'd expect they would be the ones causing the spike in the first place! I guess all I'm saying is that I'm a bit surprised these platforms would give you a really noticeable advantage, but I guess they must... I'll just have to see for myself.

 

[Music_Producer]

Right Shard, it is the banks and hedge funds managers who have access to Bloomberg terminals, that cause that spike.. but if you and I were using the same terminal.. we would be *part* of that spike too. We would get in, like everyone else, at the beginning of the spike and get out at the top.

Btw, be careful while trading the US PPI.. there's housing starts coming out as well (although i doubt that will be very important) But a huge deviation in housing starts could erase off any spikes caused due to ppi numbers. If, for example housing starts came out highly positive, therefore surprising everyone. That's one big relief for the US traders.. in that the real estate market is seen as pulling the US economy down.. so an upward number will be a sign of a healthier economy.

I'm also trading the Canadian CPI

 

[Music_Producer]

Canadian CPI came out better than expected at 0.3% (core number) Made 10 pips on that trade.

 

[~Shard~]

Thanks for the warning re: the US PPI - I was kind of thinking the same thing, since multiple announcements are coming out at the same time. I'll definitely be watching the trade but I'm not sure if I'll act this time around. We'll see...

Also I just woke up to a pleasant surprise - while I was sleeping it seems as though my AUD/JPY carry trade has shot up a good 40 pips for me! Any reason why? I haven't hadn't a chance to read the headlines yet... Maybe I should just exit it for now before today's BoJ announcement, just in case... hmmm...

 

[Music_Producer]

Wow, pretty tepid reaction to strong PPI numbers ..caught 15 pips on the down spike .. did you see the whipsaw? Man, eur/usd first went up by about 8-10 pips and then dropped rightaway.

Euro's recovered back to where it was pre-news level.

 

[~Shard~]

Didn't end up trading this one this morning - as usual, Oanda's news service was a touch slow, so I wasn't able to get in on time. Hindsight says I could have got in mid-way through the spike and still made a few pips going down, but, well, that's hindsight.

The other thing that threw me was that just before the news came out, there was actually a positive spike upwards - I was wondering if someone was doing some insider trading! But, if they were, they were wrong, as once the news came out there was that sharp decrease. Oops.

So yeah, I could have made a bit this morning, but chose to err on the safe side this go around. There's always next time...

Oh, and since I'll be at work all day I decided to close out my carry trade position as well, just in case the AUD/JPY gets hits with the announcement this afternoon. Perhaps it won't, or perhaps it will continue to rise, but I've made some nice money on it so no need to get greedy. I'll open another carry position on the currency pair before the week is out...

 

[nhallmark]

I didn't trade PPI. Tradethenews was a little slow and there was zero time to get in. The news came out and it dropped at the same time. oh well

I was looking at the bloomberg platform last night. It pisses me off because, like everything else it only works on windows. But my bank account doesn't really care, so whatever.

 

[~Shard~]

Isn't the Bloomberg terminal $1700/month or something?!? As it's been said before though, I guess you get what you pay for, and if you're a big trading firm/hedge fund I'm sure that's small peanuts when compared to your overall profits/month... must be nice...

 

[Music_Producer]

Oh yeah, the Bloomberg Terminal is $1700 per month.. and don't worry about a pc nhallmark.. you don't need to use one They give you the hardware setup - 2 monitors, keyboard and i guess the data hardware. You are connected to the bloomberg data center via a direct line.. I am not sure if you can connect via cable/dsl.. but obviously the direct line is the fastest way to get that news.. makes no sense to pay so much and get your bloomberg info at the same time as oanda news!!



As Shard mentioned, it's a negligible (but necessary) expense for banks. Look at Bank of America's foreign exchange profit.. somewhere like half a billion USD. Nice, they get to play with our money..

 

[nhallmark]

Wow, Music_Producer, that thing is hideous. This is the one I saw...

It's no 30" Cinema Display, but it'll do. So, if it's a direct line, do they have to make a service call to your house to install the line, or what?

Also, I saw on their "Bloomberg Anywhere" login page the option to login natively or through java, so it might be possible to access it on a mac, but I'd be willing to use their hardware if its faster.

They also have this keycard that lets you log in with your fingerprint...

I can't wait until I can afford this thing.

Here's where I got the images...

http://about.bloomberg.com/about/professional/index.html

 

[nhallmark]

Did you guys trade the US GDP this morning? I just watched it to learn.

 

[~Shard~]

Just watched it as well - I didn't think there would be enough variance to make any money from it, and I was kind of right. I think things in general will slow down until the end of the year now, being holiday season and all. I'll be around for the trade tomorrow on US durable goods etc. but after that, I don't think there'll be much trading until the New Year.

One thing I did do though was enter back into my AUD/JPY carry trade. Down a little bit on it right now (got in at 92.98) but making interest, and hopefully the currency will remain solid throughout the holidays - there won't be as many announcements which would move it. I plan on holding this position for a while now and only went with half my desired amount in case there's a large dip - if there is, I'll simply DCA down and get even more interest.

 

[nhallmark]

Are you guys trading US Durable goods in the morning? I think Im going to watch again because there is a lot of data coming out at the same time. Ive never traded this before but it looks like it will be crazy like NFP, but I could be wrong

 

[~Shard~]

Are you guys trading US Durable goods in the morning? I think Im going to watch again because there is a lot of data coming out at the same time. Ive never traded this before but it looks like it will be crazy like NFP, but I could be wrong

I'll be ready with my finger on the trade button, but we'll see how it goes...

AUD/JPY is back up - my carry trade is doing nicely right now as a result... I'll be holding it through to the New year now...

 

[Music_Producer]

Hey guys, nhallmark.. I posted an older pic of the bloomberg platform.. their new one looks real sleek

I might just watch the trade today.. two very important reports coming out.. Durable goods and PCE.. Durable goods is important but then PCE becomes important as well.. thanks to all the inflation issues and expectations of a rate hike/cut. I think there might be a whipsaw.. and I don't want to risk getting caught in it. Maybe I'll trade with a very small lot.

Shard, yup the aud/jpy should continue to strengthen.. but i would caution holding on to it when january arrives. Just this feeling .. that it's appreciated too much.. and usually you know.. that seasonal thing that you're always talking about comes into play as well

And to think aud/jpy was 83 in july. Man s$@#%#!@!!!!

 

[~Shard~]

Shard, yup the aud/jpy should continue to strengthen.. but i would caution holding on to it when january arrives. Just this feeling .. that it's appreciated too much.. and usually you know.. that seasonal thing that you're always talking about comes into play as well

And to think aud/jpy was 83 in july. Man s$@#%#!@!!!!

Thanks Music_Producer, I'll keep that in mind....

 

[Music_Producer]

Haha.. just like I said.. it's a damn rollercoaster. Made 16 pips riding it (selling at the peaks and closing at the bottom) with multiple trades. It's a perfect 12-15 pip whipsaw range. I'm done for the day.. don't want to ruin all those profits.