Anyone here into FOREX?

[Music_Producer]

I feel like the banks are buying as much USD/JPY as possible before the rate hike.. and when the BOJ raises the rates.. they're going to sell the USD like rabid dogs.. lol.. pardon the expression here. Thats my theory though..

The rate hike would have to be factored in anyway, as talk about it has been going on for months. There are too many things going on today.. the interest rate decision.. and then there will be the actual speech given by the BOJ chairman.. if he's dovish I would see the JPY drop (after it goes up) There are also some rumors of a 50bps hike (I dont think that will happen) and if that occurs.. you'll see the JPY go up and up..

To make matters worse.. there is no exact timing as to the rate announcement.. some say its 12 midnight EST.. 1am..2am..etc. So I just have to wait and watch

 

[Music_Producer]

ITs been a rollercoaster so far with the USD/JPY but my trade went well! As expected, the BOJ announced 25 bps hike.. ending the 0% interest policy after 6 years. Markets expected this, and the USD/JPY dropped 30 pips. I got in right on top.. but held on.. mistake.. the chart went back up to where I bought it.. and further up.. to about 116.10 or 116.20.

I didn't have a stop loss.. so I have been waiting for the last 2 hours.. it finally went down to 115.60.. and thats when I closed my trade for 30 pips. A good trade, very satisfying.. but had me on the edge of my seat

I also took into account that when the BOJ decision was announced.. the London markets (and obviously the US) were not open.. so action was relatively lagging. I still expect the USD/JPY to drop to 113.. and the Aussie $ to drop against the JPY as well. I'll be up all night to see where this goes.. and see if I can capture more pips.

 

[~Shard~]

I know you've discussed it above Music_Producer, but I just wanted to clarify/ask your opinion.

I'll be opening a demo account in the near future now that I've done some more research myself, read your very helpful comments, etc. and want to know who should should go with.

I realize you use Oanda, and from the sounds of it, in terms of their pip spreads and minimal "trying to screw you over" techniques, they sound solid.

I live in Canada though - is there any issue with me using them, or anything I should be concerned about? Would you strongly recommend going with a Canadian firm, or does it really matter as long as the firm is reputable (as Oanda appears to be)?

I have heard of FXCM (thanks to this thread) and FXSolutions as far as what some other Canadians use, but am unsure if they are as reputable, secure and "honest" as Oanda, for instance. The whole thing about changing pip spreads, screwing around with your margin, etc. has shown me that you have to be very careful, pay attention to detail and make sure you're not getting screwed.

Any further advice or thoughts would be appreciated. I'll eventually use real money with whomever I sign up with (barring a horrible experience), so I'd ideally like to make the right call right off the bat before I begin 2-3 months of demo trading with someone.

 

[Music_Producer]

I know you've discussed it above Music_Producer, but I just wanted to clarify/ask your opinion.

I'll be opening a demo account in the near future now that I've done some more research myself, read your very helpful comments, etc. and want to know who should should go with.

I realize you use Oanda, and from the sounds of it, in terms of their pip spreads and minimal "trying to screw you over" techniques, they sound solid.

I live in Canada though - is there any issue with me using them, or anything I should be concerned about? Would you strongly recommend going with a Canadian firm, or does it really matter as long as the firm is reputable (as Oanda appears to be)?

I have heard of FXCM (thanks to this thread) and FXSolutions as far as what some other Canadians use, but am unsure if they are as reputable, secure and "honest" as Oanda, for instance. The whole thing about changing pip spreads, screwing around with your margin, etc. has shown me that you have to be very careful, pay attention to detail and make sure you're not getting screwed.

Any further advice or thoughts would be appreciated. I'll eventually use real money with whomever I sign up with (barring a horrible experience), so I'd ideally like to make the right call right off the bat before I begin 2-3 months of demo trading with someone.

Hey Shard.. I highly recommend Oanda.. last night when I carried out my trade with Oanda.. I tried the same with FXCM and I got that same old "Waiting for the operator" message.. or "This trade was not executed as the market has moved" That was it, I closed my FXCM account and had my money wired back to my account.

I have never had a trade delayed or blocked on the Oanda platform, I don't think it really matters where the forex firm is based.. as long as its reputable. Additionally, your balance earns interest everyday in Oanda, I have yet to see FXCM offer that, they'll take interest from you, but they'll never pay you interest that they owe.

Open your demo account with Oanda and check it out. The platform might take a little while getting used to (its grey and ugly) buy it works great.

 

[~Shard~]

Thanks Music_Producer - as always it's appreciated.

I'll give Oanda a try then, and unless I'm really disappointed with it (which sounds unlikely based on your feedback) I'll stick with it and txfer some money in in a few months when I'm ready.

P.S You don't work for Oanda and are therefore biased, are you? j/k

 

[Music_Producer]

I wish I worked for a trading firm Shard! I'd have so many tips and I could be a billionaire soon enough

I'm still keeping an eye on JPY..like I mentioned, trading is great as long as there are no external factors involved.. such as this stupid israeli-lebanon crisis, plus the NK factor. The Yen is being hammered due to high oil prices, and tensions due to North Korea. If these 2 were not present (or are solved soon enough) you will see the Yen go up.

Everyone seeks the US dollar as a safe refuge during war time (and gold of course) Its exactly the opposite for the US stock market though, you will see the stock markets crash.. while the $ goes up.

In fact, last night when the US retail sales came out weaker than expected.. I actually *bought* the USD (when usually i would sell it) and i was right.. the $ still went up! Apparently no one wanted to sell the dollar before the end of the market day. Lets see what happens on monday, but if this war stuff goes on, the Yen won't be boosted.. not even a rate hike can help. Kinda sucks though, as i was hoping for a 300 pip drop (USD/JPY) The timing of the Yen rate hike and the Israel+Nk combo couldn't have been worse!

 

[~Shard~]

Well, I signed up for my demo account with Oanda. Just wondering Music_Producer, what do you usually prefer to have your settings at in terms of time intervals (5 sec?), the overall time period being shown and the vertical pip scale? Obviously this depends what type of trade you're carrying out (as in your trades which only last a few seconds) but just thought I'd ask. Going down to the smallest intervals is good, however it's nice to also see the previous trends over the past few hours or even days I find, so just curious.

And in your case, the second you submit your buy/sell order, you essentially open up another order window and frantically type in the corresponding lots to sell/buy and have your finger on your mouse button as you watch the chart and bid/ask spread?

 

[Hoef]

And in your case, the second you submit your buy/sell order, you essentially open up another order window and frantically type in the corresponding lots to sell/buy and have your finger on your mouse button as you watch the chart and bid/ask spread?

I have played around with the oanda account and yet have to make a $, but is fun and interesting. I try to contain myself by not playing with insane amounts of money (simlate reallife experience). The nice thing is when you submit your order, you can close it out by clicking the active trade in your trades "tab". Fairly quick (though I am not quick enough )

 

[Crimson]

Tomorrow's news

Hi again,

I got the news off Oanda for tomorrow and would like your thoughts on it. Is any of these news going to affect the markets? Just want to see how you look at news like these and your interpretation. Then if you don't mind, maybe you can explain why a certain number will move a currency, and how you figure out if the direction will go up or down. Just picking your brain some more!

 

[Music_Producer]

Hey Shard, I have my units already entered in the buy/sell window.. and all I am waiting for is the report.. and i select either buy or sell.. and then hit 'submit'. If I waste time entering the number of units when the report comes out.. it'll be too late! I keep my charts at 15 min intervals, to get a picture of what the currencies have been doing all day in the 3 markets - Tokyo, London and US.

Hoef, you will get quicker as you practice enough.

Crimson, I will be looking at all 3 news for tomorrow.. but the industrial production and capacity utilization is more important. The empire survey is just a survey, its not like its a consumer confidence report or anything.

If the two conflict i,e, industrial production is higher than expected, and capacity utilization is lower than expected.. I won't trade. If both of them are higher than expected, I will sell the EUR/USD and if lower.. then I'll buy the EUR/USD. Whenever these kind of news are expected, don't trade (if you're not confident) Usually one news-result type trades work the best.. because you just have to worry about one thing.. and not be concerned with conflicting numbers and all that jazz.

I will also be looking at the charts when the London markets open to see what the USD does.. because of the war in Israel i.e. if there is any effect on the US$ in general.

 

[Music_Producer]

Oh, and Hoef.. as soon as I buy or sell anything.. and the trade shows up in the 'open trades' sections.. I immediately click on it.. so the "Close Trade" window pops up. I then have my cursor on the 'submit' button.. so that i can close it as soon as i make a good profit.

 

[njmac]

Music_Producer, you seem to have a real talent for this! You haven't lost a trade in 3+ months right?

I opened an Oanda Game account and am hoping to be as successful you are. If I do well I'd be more than happy to buy you a beer for all of the amazing advice you've given here. It's hard to know who to trust and you have never asked anything from us and have answered every question. thank you!

I hope you will continue to tell us the news to look out for during the week so we can all game trade along with you. I almost feel like I need a degree in economics.

 

[Crimson]

Music_Producer, you seem to have a real talent for this! You haven't lost a trade in 3+ months right?

I opened an Oanda Game account and am hoping to be as successful you are. If I do well I'd be more than happy to buy you a beer for all of the amazing advice you've given here. It's hard to know who to trust and you have never asked anything from us and have answered every question. thank you!

I hope you will continue to tell us the news to look out for during the week so we can all game trade along with you. I almost feel like I need a degree in economics.

I couldn't agree more!!! A huge thanks!!!!

 

[~Shard~]

I couldn't agree more!!! A huge thanks!!!!

Adding on my thanks as well. Please keep the advice coming and the updates on how your trades go. The best way to learn (besides doing of course!) is by example!

 

[Music_Producer]

You're welcome guys!

Now comes some advance trading..hehe.. somehow I have a feeling that today, even if the US data comes out lower than expected.. the USD will go up (maybe a tiny spike down but thats it) Its 5.35 am PST right now.. waiting for the 6.15 am news.

The USD has gone up like crazy since the last 4-6 hours.. all because of the war. Investment banks seem to be buying gold, the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the USD.. why the US$? Because its a safe investment.. and the US economy doesn't look like its in trouble right now.

Logically, the US $ is supposed to go down during war, and so are the stock markets.. but I assume thats if the war involves the US. Right now its just the middle eastern jazz thats going on, and the Nkorea drama.. so the USD is safer than other currencies.

Well since the last few minutes that I've typed this.. the Euro has gone down by about 15 pips.. and keeps dropping against the USD. So if you have a game account.. trade.. if not, don't put your money on this one. I'm not doing anything.. I'm just going to see.. I think the EUR will go down even if the US news is bad (after, a small corrective spike)

If there was no war going on, I would trade with confidence today, as the currencies wouldn't be affected by anything other than economic data. I hope these idiots resolve their differences.. for humanitarian reasons and for the markets as well.

 

[Music_Producer]

Music_Producer, you seem to have a real talent for this! You haven't lost a trade in 3+ months right?

I opened an Oanda Game account and am hoping to be as successful you are. If I do well I'd be more than happy to buy you a beer for all of the amazing advice you've given here. It's hard to know who to trust and you have never asked anything from us and have answered every question. thank you!

I hope you will continue to tell us the news to look out for during the week so we can all game trade along with you. I almost feel like I need a degree in economics.

Yup, haven't lost a trade in more than 3 months now Almost did.. during that JPY interest rate hike.. but thats because I didn't exit fast enough..I was 'waiting' for a 100 pip drop.. without thinking about the war going on. When you get greedy.. thats when you get slammed. I did make a profit though, but it was after a few anxious minutes.

Practice and practice.. and don't listen to people on forex forums and their various 'methods' of figuring out where the currencies are going to be in the next month or so (believe me - they have everything - from crystal balls to emotional index of the currencies.. )

I won't ask anything from you guys.. just that beer and maybe a few mac related troubleshooting tips

 

[Crimson]

Music_Producer... Living in CA it seems that most trading is done very early in the morning! Do you plan your day around the newsreports? And Monday mornings, what time do you start checking the charts? I guess I still need the dicipline to set my alarm a bit earlier! Do you still work full time? And what about vacation... do you actually take breaks at times? (Not bringing the laptop to the beach? )

Thanks for the morning update. It's great to look at the charts and read your postings at the same time! Very helpful to gain a better understanding!!!!

 

[Curren~Sea]

Good job MP, keep up the good work! I think you are a classic example of a person who has found a good strategy and is using it consistently for some nice profits. Also, you seem to have very realistic goals in achieving just a few pips at a time, but your trades are all very high probability.

 

[Music_Producer]

Crimson, I am a nightowl.. so I was usually up till 3-4am anyway.. when I started doing Forex.. I just thought ' what the heck.. might as well stay up till 5.30-6'. I can never wake up with an alarm ..never that early in the morning I'd rather stay up all night to catch a 7 am flight.. then sleep at 10 pm and wake up at 5 am and get ready and all that! Also, going to the gym and working out at 2.30 am or so really helps.

Vacation and forex? You must be kidding me.. the wife will probably throw me outta the house No I just do forex at home, a lot of people do it full time.. I know I could but I still can't see myself doing that.. not yet. I'm 29 and I don't think I want to be called an 'investor'

Curren~Sea.. yup.. with my method the pips are small.. last night, although I didn't trade.. the EUR/USD did go down about 20 pips after the news came out (The industrial production and capacity utilization were better than expected) And just as I had predicted, the EUR/USD has still been going down. I'd rather make small but consistent profits. I mean heck, Bill Gates just lost $600 million in the forex market.. I wonder what the hell he was doing. With that kind of money.. I'd just be investing in forex for the interest trade!

 

[Curren~Sea]

That was one of the first things I had to learn... if the currency keeps going after I closed in profit - be happy! I used to feel like I was missing out because the "guru's" always say to let your winners run. But if I got out of a trade for good reasons then I learned to be happy with it because I made the decisions with the best info I had at the time.

I'm not there yet... almost... I hope to be a full time trader within the next few months, perhaps by October. But that also leaves me time to work on real estate projects too.

Wasn't it Warren Buffett who shorted the USD a couple years ago and lost about 600million? That was his first (and only) foray into FX trading as far as I know. But even then, he only risked a small percentage of his total account. For people like that, it's just another zero!

 

[Music_Producer]

I believe both Buffet and Gates lost money in Forex.. well they are best friends apparently. I can just imagine them sitting together in front of the screen going "Ooooh.. lets buy 1 billion lots of EUR/USD and see what happens".. and it goes up.. just before they hit 'close' the PC freezes

Here's the GBP trade I placed today.. the pip spread was pretty wide on this one, almost 8 pips, but I went ahead since it was an important event - the CPI numbers from the UK. They came out at 0.3% .. better than expected (0.1%) and the pound quickly shot up by about 35 pips, out of which .. I got to grab 10 pips. You also see a correctional 'dip' and then it shoots back up - bringing the total rise to 45 pips.

The dollar's strength is preventing the GBP from shooting up further, if by some miracle, the war's called off anytime, look for the dollar to fall.

The next trade I am looking for is at 5.30 am PST.. the US CPI and PPI numbers.

 

[Music_Producer]

Is there any way to prevent the Grab application from saving my selection as a TIFF file? I'd find it easier if i can save it as gif/jpg so i can attach the pictures here easily.. instead of uploading it and all that.

 

[~Shard~]

Is there any way to prevent the Grab application from saving my selection as a TIFF file? I'd find it easier if i can save it as gif/jpg so i can attach the pictures here easily.. instead of uploading it and all that.

You could try doing a screen capture using cmd-shift-3 and selecting your Oanada window as the desired area. That allows you to select what part of the screen you want captured. It should then save the grab to your desktop as a PDF or JPG by default (depending if you're on Panther or Tiger). Even if it's a PDF, just open it in Preview then export - piece of cake...

Let me know if this is easier for you.

 

[Music_Producer]

Thats great Shard - thanks for the tip! Just finished trading the USD PPI numbers and made about 6 pips. I am still pretty slow compared to the other traders.. so here's one more question..sorry to bug you

Is there any way I can have 2 cursors on my screen?? You know, so i can have one on 'submit' and one on 'buy' or 'sell'.. logically I don't think its possible.. but you think? That would drastically cut down my lag while trading. One finger would be on the trackpad.. and the other on the mouse button.

 

[~Shard~]

Thats great Shard - thanks for the tip! Just finished trading the USD PPI numbers and made about 6 pips. I am still pretty slow compared to the other traders.. so here's one more question..sorry to bug you

Is there any way I can have 2 cursors on my screen?? You know, so i can have one on 'submit' and one on 'buy' or 'sell'.. logically I don't think its possible.. but you think? That would drastically cut down my lag while trading. One finger would be on the trackpad.. and the other on the mouse button.

No worries - it's the least I can do for all your great advice in this thread.

Unfortunately, I know no way of having 2 cursors on the screen as you suggest. The only thing I can think of that would be quicker would be if the Oanda application has some hot keys, or quick key combination to execute commands, like a cmd-whatever. If you're quick on the keyboard, this could be faster than using the mouse, but perhaps not.