Hey everyone, we have a big one today - bank of england rate decision. They will probably leave rates alone but all this Barclays business might push them to reduce rates.. I am hoping they do so.. for a great trade. GU has pushed up beyond 2.1000 level.. so a rate cut would bring in a good 150+ pips (or even more)
If you were watching the charts yesterday, it was a crazy day. Some chinese official opened his mouth stating that 'We need to diversify our reserves into stronger currencies such as euros, etc" and EUR/USD jumped up 100 pips in a few seconds. My news feed was closed.. so when I saw that huge spike I immediately opened the feed to see what was going on.
USD took quite a beating yesterday.. EUR/USD broke the 1.47 barrier.. and pound broke 2.100 level. On days like these, trade with the trend. It's the easiest way to do so - if you missed out on the initial spike.. wait for a retracement and some profit taking. Buy on dips - NEVER short against a major buying trend!
I was checking out another forum yesterday and someone shorted the pound at 2.1000 level because it's a major level.. and he thought it would be a good opportunity for resistance.. and it would fall 20-30 pips. He bet his entire account on it.. GBP/USD went all the way up to 2.1050.. he got a margin call and he lost about $80k.
So DON't try and guess a top or a bottom, I don't know why people do that. If BoE cut rates today, and the pound falls.. I am certainly not going to go long if it falls to 2.0900 or 2.0800. Sure, it might start heading back up.. but it's a dangerous situation - it can easily turn against you.. and very quickly. It's safer to be with the trend.. and don't bet your entire account!
I have been trading these trend trades with small lots.. just experimenting. This morning I was absolutely positive (500% sure) that the DOW was going to crash because:
1. GM posted $39 billion loss
2. All the citigroup news (losses in billions)
3. The USD taking a beating and china threatening to diversify
4. A bunch of other companies reporting losses
5. Fannie and Freddie (mortgage companies) being probed ..
When you have so many bad news lumped together.. the equity markets cannot stop a crash. What's funny was the retards in forexfactory stating confidently that GBP/JPY was going to go up.. all the way to 240 (it was 237.30 at the time) based on technical indicators "harmonious pattern, candlestick crap, etc"
That is the worst decision you can ever make - trade on techs when you have gloomy fundamentals staring hard at you in the face. These idiots never learn their lesson. I shorted GJ.. it started going up to 237.60.. but I held on because I knew this was simply profit taking.. getting ready for a big fall.
Sure enough, the DOW crashed 360+ points.. GJ went down all the way to 235.60 or so.. I cashed in with 100 pips. So good luck trading and if you're a tech trader, just keep some fundamentals in mind.. for your account's sake!