Sidebar Sidebar
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

Anyone here into FOREX?

Status
Not open for further replies.
But still 4 lots at 79 pips on GJ is still nearly $30k. A great return for a few minutes work.

I think a rate-cut be it a surprise one or not is just haunting the markets. It will only have a temporary effect. As the markets were tanking last week when Bernanke spoke, he didnt cut then. The FOMC is next week. So he really loses credibility if he cuts today. As the market is saying they dont work. Just use the bounce to sell more. I pity those bargain-hunters who bought the lows on friday on the US stockmarkets. Be some big margin calls out there.
 
Britguy said:
But still 4 lots at 79 pips on GJ is still nearly $30k. A great return for a few minutes work.

I think a rate-cut be it a surprise one or not is just haunting the markets. It will only have a temporary effect. As the markets were tanking last week when Bernanke spoke, he didnt cut then. The FOMC is next week. So he really loses credibility if he cuts today. As the market is saying they dont work. Just use the bounce to sell more. I pity those bargain-hunters who bought the lows on friday on the US stockmarkets. Be some big margin calls out there.
Click to expand...

It is a great return - and it's so hard to fight the temptation to bet my entire account on trades like those. $30 k in a few minutes? It could have been $180k in a few minutes. I started out making 10 cents profit on trades!

They're saying that he might cut 50bps today.. and 50 bps next week - instead of 100 bps next week (what difference it bloody makes.. i have no clue)

Yep, most funds are getting margin calls due to the global equity sell off today.. so they have been liquidating their metals assets (which is why gold is actually going lower) The long term trend for markets, and carry trades has been bearish since last year.
 
FEDS CUT RATES - 75 BPS POINTS. GBP/JPY JUMPED 150+ PIPS.. Bagged 65.. took me by surprise!

This is it. $ is now doomed. The Federal Reserve is nothing but a slave of the banks and corps. :mad:

I would expect stock markets to rally today :rolleyes:
 
Wow, this is just crazy. Is the US Fed retarded? :confused:

Can I just short the entire United States of America and be done with it? :p :D

Seriously, Asian and European markets are hurting big time too. It's a good thing we can make money whether the markets go up or down - I can't imagine being an investor who only has long positions in stocks or something silly like that... they must be hurting with such a limited, restrictive portfolio... :(

Good luck trading everyone, but be careful out there... :cool:
 
oh man, I didn't even have a news feed...I just died laughing when EJ shot up 200 pips. I couldn't even trade, it was so funny...a 3 yr old could run the fed better :p

EJs retraced about 90% of the move. MP, with all the money you're making, maybe you'll do a little better than break even after adjusting for inflation :p ;)
 
Fed are stupid.

Think i will short the VIX index soon. Cant believe it will get much higher. Massive volatility out there.

Dollar strengthens due to flight to quality. No way will i be buying the dollar though.

$180k wow. How many millions do you have?
 
Britguy said:
Fed are stupid.

Think i will short the VIX index soon. Cant believe it will get much higher. Massive volatility out there.

Dollar strengthens due to flight to quality. No way will i be buying the dollar though.

$180k wow. How many millions do you have?
Click to expand...

My millions are probably worth 500 of your brit pounds :D Be careful with the VIX.. anything can happen.

Lol nathan.. yeah.. I'm telling you.. anyone can do a better job than bernie. But remember.. when you're getting some fat cash bonuses from wall st and global banks.. hmm.. what would you do? ;)

Shard.. we should just rename you Short Shard.. hehe. Yeah, it's great that we can profit from swings on either side. I wonder how the mutual funds are going to do this year with all the action going on.
 
Music_Producer said:
Shard.. we should just rename you Short Shard.. hehe. Yeah, it's great that we can profit from swings on either side. I wonder how the mutual funds are going to do this year with all the action going on.
Click to expand...

Nice, I like it. ;) As for the mutual funds, I can't see them fairing too well -which is one of the many reasons I do not invest in mutual funds. A little fact may people don't know is that over 80% of all mutual funds underperforms the markets consistently year after year.

In other words, Short Shard says, "Mutual Funds are for suckers!" :p ;) :D
 
Music_Producer, I just started watching GBPJPY more seriously than I have in the past. I have always thought of it as simply too volatile to trade. However it does look possible to make some money off it, as you have clearly demonstrated. Just wondering what you look for in the pair, if you employ any different types of tactics with this pair and overall how you trade it - or if you simply news trade it like any other pair.

I will say (with extreme caution) that this pair does indeed have trading potential, at least as I see it. Am thinking of giving it a go in the near future, hence why I thought I'd bring it up... Your thoughts are appreciated...
 
Shard, There are good strategies to trade in volitile markets.
Straddling may work but you have to set stops on each side.

MP, what's your strategy?
 
Shard, Ocean.. I only trade GBP/JPY when it is news related (especially in this risk averse environment) GJ moves great during stock market crashes.. bank news .. home sales.. etc. Anything that is related to the overall economic health of the US/UK.. Japanese news don't matter at all.

I will never trade GJ based on technicals.. right now I am tempted to short on rallies.. it was a good thing that the rate cut rumors came out early yesterday.. imagine going short on GJ.. and then getting whacked when that rate cut happened? :eek:


Moves of 200-300 pips are normal on GJ.. so if you're going to set a stop loss at 50 pips, it's not going to work at all. When I trade GJ I trade very small lots.. it's more of a risky fun thing, rather than serious trading. Even the best traders get killed with GJ.
 
I trade GY too. I have an emergency stop in place i use. But often a price will retace the next day & leave you in profit. GY is harder to trade as it has lost its correlation to the equity mkts to an extent now.
 
Did you guys see the stock market rally today? Looks like government intervention as usual :rolleyes:

So basically, the government is going to make matters worse by spoon feeding these bond issuers.. and pacifying them. This could be interesting.. if the markets swallow all this, and the rate cuts next week.. this could be the end of the current downtrend in the markets (and carry trades)

If that does happen, then watch out for an even worse collapse later. I'll be waiting :D
 
I agree MP, ridiculous.

I think some big bank or mortgage lender went cap in hand to the fed over the weekend, and this is why they cut so aggressively.

Its worth shorting rallies, but they can be quite vicious.

In a way it creates a false market, as the pile is stacked against bears, as they will keep injecting liquidity, cutting rates and taxes etc to reflate Wall Street.
I bet they would never hike rates if the market jumped 1000 points on the Dow.
 
Music_Producer said:
Looks like government intervention as usual :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

The infamous PPT? ;) ...it is weird how /JPY pairs have been acting since the rate cut.

I've never seen EJ that "determined" to move up like that...I'm always watching the ticks and it just "feels" different for the past 2 days...like someone really is pushing up the market. What's weird is it "feels" normal when it starts dropping again.

...maybe I'm just making stuff up :p :rolleyes:
 
Do the US Feds really think they can fix the fundamental problems with the economy with such band-aid approaches? What are they going to do, cut the interest rate to 0%?! :confused: Then what?? :rolleyes:
 
~Shard~ said:
Do the US Feds really think they can fix the fundamental problems with the economy with such band-aid approaches? What are they going to do, cut the interest rate to 0%?! :confused: Then what?? :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

That's what Japan did according to that article I linked to earlier...

http://www.mises.org/journals/scholar/oberholster.pdf

The thing is though, we(the US) don't have any real manufacturing/exports to fall back on...or at least not enough to rescue us :eek:

I don't get why they don't raise the minimum wage, or even repeat their retarded process...just give everyone a $50K credit card...consumer spending will return and they can all play the game a little longer :rolleyes: ...but I guess that's essentially what they're trying to do with the "stimulus package" :p

I hear the Muslim Dinars are the only gold(backed) currency left, so maybe I'll move to Malaysia :p
 
nhallmark said:
That's what Japan did according to that article I linked to earlier...

http://www.mises.org/journals/scholar/oberholster.pdf
Click to expand...

I would find it extremely amusing if the USD interest rate dropped to a level where it became a carry trade currency. :p :D

nhallmark said:
The thing is though, we(the US) don't have any real manufacturing/exports to fall back on...or at least not enough to rescue us :eek:
Click to expand...

Exactly. That's the big difference I've seen between the US and Canada as of late - we are such a large exporting nation and the US is such a large importing nation. It makes a big difference in situations and environments like this.

nhallmark said:
I hear the Muslim Dinars are the only gold(backed) currency left, so maybe I'll move to Malaysia :p
Click to expand...

Maybe not for long. There is talk out there that the USD may not be the international reserve currency anymore if this keeps up....
 
nhallmark said:
The thing is though, we(the US) don't have any real manufacturing/exports to fall back on...or at least not enough to rescue us
Click to expand...

But.. but.. what about MySpace? And Facebook?? :p

If this is a rally, it could be a short term rally. Who knows? Right now, I'm on the sidelines until the markets take a clear direction.

Btw, remember the Chinese Yuan I was talking to you guys about? It keeps going up every single day. I calculated that if you sold USD/CNY a year ago (100,000 units) you would end up with $8700 something profit.. which is measly for an entire year.. but it's guaranteed profit.

Now here's the bloody catch - the interest. The interest payments you would have to make work out to $9500 something! So you'd be in a net loss. *Unless* you actually had a hold of the physical currency itself - real crisp Yuan notes.

So I checked online with various exchange offices.. being used to the wholesale rates on FX platforms.. I was a little taken aback to see a 1000 pip spread when trying to purchase physical currency i.e. at retail fx locations :eek: Spreads vary according to currencies.. but they're easily at 300-400 pips or so.

Now, if you could find someone on the black market (call Soros!) who could get you physical notes at wholesale rates.. hmmmmm. Take physical delivery of CNY (like, say, $10,000 worth) Hold it for a year or however long.. and you don't have to pay interest. It's also a good way to diversify your savings.

What do you guys think?
 
~Shard~ said:
I would find it extremely amusing if the USD interest rate dropped to a level where it became a carry trade currency. :p :D
Click to expand...

Actually, that has begun. There are stories floating around that people are looking at the USD as a carry funding currency. Lol.
 
Music_Producer said:
Actually, that has begun. There are stories floating around that people are looking at the USD as a carry funding currency. Lol.
Click to expand...

Haha, that's hilarious, especially since I was only joking! :D Makes sense though...

I see GBPJPY shot up again - that thing is crazy, I gotta get me some of that action... :p ;) :D
 
Music_Producer said:
But.. but.. what about MySpace? And Facebook?? :p
Click to expand...

You're right. And as long as people keep clicking Google ads, the bloggers can keep buying Apple products. It's a whole ecosystem, dude! :p :rolleyes:

About the Yuan, I would say go for it. I don't know if Everbank has Yaun, but I think their spread is 50 pips and 1% of the transaction for physical delivery of notes. I know you can also get notes from Oanda LOL. Other than that, maybe drive down to Koreatown in LA and ask the guy taking a cigarette break in the back of China Queen :p ;)

Yaun would be good to hold, IMO...China really seems to be kicking a$$ at the moment, as I'm sure you know.
 
I just opened an everbank account 2 days ago ;) I'll check out their rates and spreads.. I sure want to buy some Yuan. Btw bro.. don't you ever sleep? :p
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.
Top Bottom
Back