Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Anyone here into FOREX?
- Thread starter Music_Producer
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
- Status
Stocks are up.. news of bond insurers to the rescue, good news from cisco, etc.. apparently lifted stocks up. So watch out.. Asian session *might* turn positive.. if that's the case.. you might see GY going higher.
Looks like you guys are doing good on the GY! So should I just open up a short position on GY myself and check back on it in a couple months? 
Looks like you guys are doing good on the GY! So should I just open up a short position on GY myself and check back on it in a couple months?
If you have the money to pay for the interest.. go for it
You should try shorting rallies.. right now I'm short after GJ shot up during the US session. Interesting day, I had a good profit on GU after UK services PMI, and then shorted UJ when the ADP came out. Went long on UJ after ISM.. odd thing is, GU and EU really, really shot up after ISM came out.. which completely puzzled me.
I still can't figure out what the bloody hell happened with those pairs. Only thing I can think of is.. well, a delayed ADP reaction perhaps? Maybe traders are aligning their positions for a really bad NFP number.. so they're going long on all USD Pairs?
Whatever it is, I'm glad I didn't trade GU or EU during US announcements. I'm sticking with UJ for US reports
Yeah, it sure has been interesting times lately - too bad I haven't been able to trade much. Ah well, things have been busy! Hopefully I'll be able to spend more time on the markets again soon...
How's your apartment project coming along? Have you started renting them out yet?
I just closed my GJ short for 73 pips. I reckon it will fall further.. but there's the UK rate decision coming up.. so I usually stay out during those times.
How's your apartment project coming along? Have you started renting them out yet?
Which project? Can't remember what my latest update was to you.
We had a 6-suite unit which we have since sold off for a nice profit. As of December we purchased 2 condos in another building which is currently an apartment complex but the condo approval is going through for it next month. We were able to lock in December prices on the units as they were then for only a small deposit on each. Through sheer market appreciation we've seen a 15% lift on them already and they haven't even condo-ed yet! Plus the building owner is completing a massive overhaul and refresh of the entire building which will raise values as well.
We plan on flipping one of them in the month or so and then kicking the tenant out of the other one,
throwing in $5-10k in renos and selling it for even more. In this market for every dollar you put in you get about 2-3 dollars out.We are also currently evaluating an opportunity in Scottsdale, Arizona where we might be able to buy into some town homes currently under construction in an affluent neighborhood. Our long time friend and real estate guru here (he's the top agent in the whole city hands down and the one who got us in on these other opportunities) is planning on retiring to Arizona in a few years so he is down there all the time and knows the market very well. I'm meeting with him for coffee tomorrow to discuss things further.
Oh, and I still own land in Alberta and Ontario as well.
So yeah, now you're up to date.
Made a killing today on the NFP. Keep going long on GU every time it dips (GU was very bullish since the start anyway) Made tons of pips.. still am.. also shorting UJ every time it bounces. However, there are rumors of a Fed emergency cut, so stay away from carries until that issue clears up.
Right now GU seems to be the pair to trade.. there are option barriers at 2.0200.. and 2.0250 so it might go through a bit of resistance.
Honestly, I was expecting GU to go down today after the really bullish run it has had, but NFP seems to have really cast a doubt on USD buyers.
Shard.. no wonder you don't have any time to trade.. what with you being a real estate mogul
Right now GU seems to be the pair to trade.. there are option barriers at 2.0200.. and 2.0250 so it might go through a bit of resistance.
Honestly, I was expecting GU to go down today after the really bullish run it has had, but NFP seems to have really cast a doubt on USD buyers.
Shard.. no wonder you don't have any time to trade.. what with you being a real estate mogul
Made a killing today on the NFP. Keep going long on GU every time it dips (GU was very bullish since the start anyway) Made tons of pips.. still am.. also shorting UJ every time it bounces. However, there are rumors of a Fed emergency cut, so stay away from carries until that issue clears up.
Right now GU seems to be the pair to trade.. there are option barriers at 2.0200.. and 2.0250 so it might go through a bit of resistance.
Honestly, I was expecting GU to go down today after the really bullish run it has had, but NFP seems to have really cast a doubt on USD buyers.
Shard.. no wonder you don't have any time to trade.. what with you being a real estate mogul
Great job Music_Producer, when do you plan on retiring?
Yeah, real estate seems to be doing well for me right now so you gotta go with what works. Our market is booming here right now, but I only see it lasting another year or so, so timing is everything. Thing is, there's always a bull market somewhere, you just need to move on and find it.
I like real estate too because, in a way, it's like forex trading in that you are technically making investments worth hundreds of thousands of dollars and can thus realize corresponding gains. Now with forex obviously you're highly leveraged which can be dangerous, but nonetheless the result can be the same.
I guess all I'm getting at is that when it comes to the stock market, I would never buy $300,000 of one stock - that would be silly. However a $300k forex trade or a $300k real estate investment is, well, more normal due to the nature of those respective markets. And, consequently, if I make 15% on an investment, well, would I rather make 15% on a $5000 stock pick ($750) or 15% on a $300k investment ($45k)?
So yeah, things are working out well, but I still love forex trading and have to make the time to become more active in it again as I was before.
You read my mind - I'll be looking at shorting the Dow and possibly the Nasdaq tomorrow for starters. There may be another day or two of positivity tomorrow from the Fed news today, but long term I see this as a band-aid fix and nothing more. All the problems with the US economy have not magically gone away because of today. As with all trading it's just a matter of timing.
Regarding the interest rate cut though, that's debatable. It depends what's priced in, what isn't, and if consensus changes or ends up being accurate in terms of how many basis points will indeed be cut. In general though, on their own, interest rate cuts are usually good for the markets, as bonds become less desirable due to lower resulting yields. If the US wasn't in the situation it is in, I would argue that an interest rate cut would boost the stock market. Based on the above factors/questions though, it's anyone's guess.
All that being said, yes, I will definitely be looking at some shorting opportunities tomorrow.
You read my mind - I'll be looking at shorting the Dow and possibly the Nasdaq tomorrow for starters. There may be another day or two of positivity tomorrow from the Fed news today, but long term I see this as a band-aid fix and nothing more. All the problems with the US economy have not magically gone away because of today. As with all trading it's just a matter of timing.
Regarding the interest rate cut though, that's debatable. It depends what's priced in, what isn't, and if consensus changes or ends up being accurate in terms of how many basis points will indeed be cut. In general though, on their own, interest rate cuts are usually good for the markets, as bonds become less desirable due to lower resulting yields. If the US wasn't in the situation it is in, I would argue that an interest rate cut would boost the stock market. Based on the above factors/questions though, it's anyone's guess.
All that being said, yes, I will definitely be looking at some shorting opportunities tomorrow.
How will you be doing this? Index options?
I can trade virtually any international exchange via my CMC Markets platform. It's no different than buying/selling an individual stock, just instead of shares, it's contracts. Same goes with commodities. For instance, sell 100 contracts of the DJIA30 and for every point the Dow drops, I make $100.
I can trade virtually any international exchange via my CMC Markets platform. It's no different than buying/selling an individual stock, just instead of shares, it's contracts. Same goes with commodities. For instance, sell 100 contracts of the DJIA30 and for every point the Dow drops, I make $100.
Damn... I haven't funded my ThinkorSwim account yet. I only have my Fidelity account set up for stocks and options.
That's the key. Made a tiny profit doing this yesterday, but didn't feel comfortable holding a larger and/or longer position...
The strategy on the other side of the coin is to look for fundamentally good stocks which are not directly impacted by the current negative economic conditions. They will be sold off as well either due to panic selling or due to margin calls, and many are good buys as a result. I employed this strategy with some local ag stocks recently when the TSX tanked and profited quite nicely. Plus, they're good long term holds...
buy South African Rands now... it's weak, let it sit there until the World Cup in 2010 then sell it to Euros. (although euro by then would be more expensive - also another choice, but not for greenback holders now...)
the problem is that it will have to wait for 2 years; as there's power supply problems in South Africa and so mines (gold, platinum, coal, manganese etc.) aren't producing at max capacity. They're currently building more power stations.
another one, not forex... I've been watching the markets on CNN these few days, and i must point out that if you bought on the 10th and sold on the 12 March you've earned 122pts on Dow. Today (13th) it dropped (checked few hours ago) 90pts.
the problem is that it will have to wait for 2 years; as there's power supply problems in South Africa and so mines (gold, platinum, coal, manganese etc.) aren't producing at max capacity. They're currently building more power stations.
another one, not forex... I've been watching the markets on CNN these few days, and i must point out that if you bought on the 10th and sold on the 12 March you've earned 122pts on Dow. Today (13th) it dropped (checked few hours ago) 90pts.
iSamurai, the problem with long term investments is that you can never be sure what is really going to happen. The waiting period doesn't help either. Why wait for 2 years to make.. say 1000 pips.. when you could do the same in 6 months on shorter trades?
Just like everyone is going long on EU and GU.. but you never know when some sort of intervention can take place to restrict the fall of the US dollar, and the dollar could come surging back up. Of course, this is just theory.. but it has happened a couple of times.
This morning (2 hours before the US CPI report) I shorted USD/JPY for some reason, thinking inflation report would come out really high. I knew there was some risk that carry trades could rise because UJ is at the 100 level.. and there is a big risk of intervention.
So that inflation report actually came out much lower than expected.. which sent my trade in the red. UJ went up to 100.80 or so and kept rising. I set a stop loss for 101.50 and a target profit for 99.20, and went to sleep.
Guess what happened? Bear Sterns chaos .... markets crashed.. UJ dropped all the way to 99. When I woke up I had a pleasant surprise. This was a lucky trade.. if the bear sterns report hadn't come out.. UJ could have easily hit my stop loss.
Like BritGuy said, wait for a good price.. and sell rallies. I jumped in a little too soon. Now look out for any reports concerning UBS or CitiBank. If Citi is indeed in major trouble (although they're too big to be in much trouble) .. you'll see some massive annihilation of carries and stocks.
Just like everyone is going long on EU and GU.. but you never know when some sort of intervention can take place to restrict the fall of the US dollar, and the dollar could come surging back up. Of course, this is just theory.. but it has happened a couple of times.
This morning (2 hours before the US CPI report) I shorted USD/JPY for some reason, thinking inflation report would come out really high. I knew there was some risk that carry trades could rise because UJ is at the 100 level.. and there is a big risk of intervention.
So that inflation report actually came out much lower than expected.. which sent my trade in the red. UJ went up to 100.80 or so and kept rising. I set a stop loss for 101.50 and a target profit for 99.20, and went to sleep.
Guess what happened? Bear Sterns chaos ..
.. markets crashed.. UJ dropped all the way to 99. When I woke up I had a pleasant surprise. This was a lucky trade.. if the bear sterns report hadn't come out.. UJ could have easily hit my stop loss. Like BritGuy said, wait for a good price.. and sell rallies. I jumped in a little too soon. Now look out for any reports concerning UBS or CitiBank. If Citi is indeed in major trouble (although they're too big to be in much trouble) .. you'll see some massive annihilation of carries and stocks.
Did you guys hear about this today?
CitiFX Pro...it was done with Saxo Bank(lol)...
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200803250815DOWJONESDJONLINE000243_FORTUNE5.htm
Here's the platform...
http://www.citifxpro.com/default.html
It looks like retail and judging by the "tour", the spreads suck. Anyway, just wondering if you guys had heard about it..
CitiFX Pro...it was done with Saxo Bank(lol)...
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200803250815DOWJONESDJONLINE000243_FORTUNE5.htm
Here's the platform...
http://www.citifxpro.com/default.html
It looks like retail and judging by the "tour", the spreads suck. Anyway, just wondering if you guys had heard about it..
Personally, I don't think we can tell yet. The data seems to be getting worse, but we all know how "logical" the markets are these days
From my TA on E/J, it looks like we will probably get back to 164.00 and if we break it - up, but if it bounces, I think it will range for awhile(1-2months) before making its way back down and eventually crashing.
Just my opinion, which is probably BS
I've been doing pretty well...15-30% average per week(since Feb 24th), just trading technicals and not staying in for more than 30 minutes
Hope it works out
- Status