Most likely won't because Apple wants to move on from the M3 due to manufacturing challenges, and giving M4 to iPad Air would be on par with the iPad Pro, which Apple most likely won't do.
What manufacturing challenges?
Apple launched iPad mini with A17 Pro. Those chips were brand new from the fab, not old binned chips either.
Apple still hasn't launched M4 MBA either. If there were any "challenges," they would have been first to equip MBA with M4, not Mac mini.
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