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I said skill. That is something else then a good idea. The fact that you might know 100 developers does not mean that you know a representative sample of the entire developer community.

haha - you said "skills" - ok, the developers I know have skills. And my quote of 1% of all apps making money is NOT based on the 100 developers I know from my network. It's based on different reports that examined the market. The 100 devs I know can be seen as a kind of proof (or not) ... just as you like.

And you said
If you have a good idea and can implement it, then luck and marketing budget do not need to be factors.

The only thing i would like to clarify here is that one of both IS needed (minimum). Either luck OR marketing money. Even IF a developer has all the skills and good ideas in the world.
And did you know that even the definition of "a good idea" in that environment is based on a lucky moment to get the right thing at the right time? It's not easy. It's NOT a fact that you make money selling your app because you just are a skilled iOS developer with a good idea.
I bet that 80%-90% of all apps don't bring in the development and marketing costs. Apps will convert more and more to must-haves for companies (like web pages) and/or gaming apps with a team of people that figure out how to get the users addicted and find the hot spot where to earn money by consumable in-app purchases.
There are niches – but they are really hard to find.
 
haha - you said "skills" - ok, the developers I know have skills. And my quote of 1% of all apps making money is NOT based on the 100 developers I know from my network. It's based on different reports that examined the market. The 100 devs I know can be seen as a kind of proof (or not) ... just as you like.

And you said


The only thing i would like to clarify here is that one of both IS needed (minimum). Either luck OR marketing money. Even IF a developer has all the skills and good ideas in the world.
And did you know that even the definition of "a good idea" in that environment is based on a lucky moment to get the right thing at the right time? It's not easy. It's NOT a fact that you make money selling your app because you just are a skilled iOS developer with a good idea.
I bet that 80%-90% of all apps don't bring in the development and marketing costs. Apps will convert more and more to must-haves for companies (like web pages) and/or gaming apps with a team of people that figure out how to get the users addicted and find the hot spot where to earn money by consumable in-app purchases.
There are niches – but they are really hard to find.

Again, a marketing budget is not needed (although it certainly helps, but I never disputed that). There are enough examples of that such as Flappy Bird that rose all the way to the top without ever investing in any marketing. So what constitutes luck is then the question? In the vast majority of games that seem to have been propelled to the top it was sheer skill of implementation that drove the development. It seems like luck that games such as Alto's Adventure get picked to be frontrunners for Apple or go viral, but the truth of the matter is that you don't get noticed or become viral with a bad idea that is bad implemented. In that sense, luck is something that you create. There are very very little examples of truly bad games (bad idea and bad implementation) that rose to the top. That would be an example that luck is a factor. Name me one or some apps if you can that rose to the top purely on luck (and no skills).

I'm surprised that you are a coder and that you do not name "skills" in your list of things that are needed.
 
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Wrong. This is NOT as black and white an issue as you profess.
Developing is no different than any other endeavor. Nothing worthwhile is easily obtained. It simply takes a lot of hard work, good ideas, and a lot of follow-through.
We are also NOT slaves to your statistics. Anything is possible.

I have revised my argument to either luck or marketing money (besides the good idea and skills, that are a must). In most cases, you need the money - but because some of pointed out there are winners in this game, you can believe in the lucky ones (that definitely exist). There are also the ones that have contacts to bigger news sites or something like that. That's also a good thing. But success is not guaranteed as well in those rare cases.

I'm thinking just like you - so I could agree that we are not slaves to statistics. But in reality, many of the good ideas and skilled developers are having a really hard time selling their apps. You NEED some kind of luck if you are an indie developer. Especially when you're alone and coder/designer/marketing guy all in one person. I didn't say it's impossible to make money developing apps. I say it's wrong to draw the conclusion that being an iOS developer leads to making a ton of money.
 
Wrong. This is NOT as black and white an issue as you profess.

Developing is no different than any other endeavor. Nothing worthwhile is easily obtained. It simply takes a lot of hard work, good ideas, and a lot of follow-through.

We are also NOT slaves to your statistics. Anything is possible.
What does your comment mean? Sounds like something you'd hear at an empowerment seminar.

Success in the app store does require a crap ton of luck and marketing, be it organic word of mouth, Apple highlighting, or an actual marketing campaign. peterdevries mentions skill, which is important, but success in the app store can be had without it. That's where luck come in.
 
What does your comment mean? Sounds like something you'd hear at an empowerment seminar.

Success in the app store does require a crap ton of luck and marketing, be it organic word of mouth, Apple highlighting, or an actual marketing campaign. peterdevries mentions skill, which is important, but success in the app store can be had without it. That's where luck come in.

Come on Mustang. What truly bad (recent) apps have been propelled to the top purely by luck or marketing money? There is not a single app in the top 20 of any category that was developed by a chimpansee and made it to the top because it went viral or because someone decided to put up a billboard.

My point is that a combination of good design skills and developer skills are necessary to be able to get noticed by anyone in the app store. Featured apps or viral apps are noticed because they are well implemented by one or a team of designers and developers.

Of course luck can help you on the way (you might get noticed by an Apple curator whereas others do not) or have access to money to fund some marketing, but at the basis of it all is a good set of design and implementation skills. Without that you will not get noticed nor get marketing money from anyone.
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I say it's wrong to draw the conclusion that being an iOS developer leads to making a ton of money.

I don't think anyone here said that.
 
Largely as a result of the App Store’s success, Apple is now responsible for creating and supporting 1.9 million jobs in the U.S. alone. Nearly three-quarters of those jobs — over 1.4 million — are attributable to the community of app creators, software engineers and entrepreneurs building apps for iOS, as well as non-IT jobs supported directly and indirectly through the app economy.*

*Job creation estimate based on research by Dr. Michael Mandel, Progressive Policy Institute. “App Economy Jobs in the United States,” January 6, 2016

Has anyone read this research and do they consider it solid? I get the feeling the definitions of creating and supporting are quite broad to come up with that 1.9M figure.
 
Again, a marketing budget is not needed (although it certainly helps, but I never disputed that). There are enough examples of that such as Flappy Bird that rose all the way to the top without ever investing in any marketing. So what constitutes luck is then the question? In the vast majority of games that seem to have been propelled to the top it was sheer skill of implementation that drove the development. It seems like luck that games such as Alto's Adventure get picked to be frontrunners for Apple or go viral, but the truth of the matter is that you don't get noticed or become viral with a bad idea that is bad implemented. In that sense, luck is something that you create. There are very very little examples of truly bad games (bad idea and bad implementation) that rose to the top. That would be an example that luck is a factor. Name me one or some apps if you can that rose to the top purely on luck (and no skills).

I'm surprised that you are a coder and that you do not name "skills" in your list of things that are needed.

If you don't have skills, you're not a coder. That simple.

Your twisting arguments. Really bad apps will never be successful for a longer period. I talked about good apps with good ideas behind it. Sadly, many of those are not successful. But since you mentioned it: of course there has been examples for those bad apps as well - things that didn't work properly can be found in the top grossing apps lists from time to time. I don't think that I have to give you a list.

And talking about Flappy Bird: This is a good example that he was lucky to get the nerves of the time. There are enough stories because there are 1.5 Million Apps or more. When you know 15.000 stories just like Flappy Bird you got 1%. Things have been different in 2008 when we had only 300.000 Apps or so. Things changed and made the business harder.
Interesting read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flappy_Bird

Oh - by the way - if you just want to become an iOS developer to get a good and well-payed job, you can do so. Many companies want to have an app (even if it doesn't make money for them).
 
Come on Mustang. What truly bad (recent) apps have been propelled to the top purely by luck or marketing money? There is not a single app in the top 20 of any category that was developed by a chimpansee and made it to the top because it went viral or because someone decided to put up a billboard.
That's what I meant by twisting arguments. Nobody talks about bad apps being successful but you.

My point is that a combination of good design skills and developer skills are necessary to be able to get noticed by anyone in the app store. Featured apps or viral apps are noticed because they are well implemented by one or a team of designers and developers.
You are right to a degree but the point is: not all apps that apply to your own list are noticed and make money – namely "good design skills", "developer skills", "well implemented", "good idea". The truth is: most of those good apps don't bring in the money they cost to create.

Of course luck can help you on the way (you might get noticed by an Apple curator whereas others do not) or have access to money to fund some marketing, but at the basis of it all is a good set of design and implementation skills. Without that you will not get noticed nor get marketing money from anyone.
Exactly. You are repeating what mustang and myself are thinking: It's the BASIS. Not the KEY to success.
 
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If you don't have skills, you're not a coder. That simple.

But that is exactly where the heart of the problem is. By your rationale all developers have the skills to produce (successful) apps. The fact of the matter is that most of them don't. What you need to get noticed in the App Store now is a solid set of design skills, developed coding skills and implementation skills (marketing skills help too). Since not many people possess these skills at the same time, it is almost a given that you will have difficulty succeeding on your own. Look at all the top apps until 50 below number 1 in any category. The absolute majority of these are all excellently designed, well coded, and implemented efficiently. Many have vast marketing budgets helping them (look at the old Angry Birds examples).

I again take Alto's Adventure as an example. This is a duo of two guys who had three run-of-the-mill normal apps (not even games) and decided to take a different step and make Alto. The combination of these two guys is golden (you could call that luck) and their skills are perfectly matched to create a well designed game both in terms of graphics and gameplay. They became noticed because of that.

The App store is still riddled with developers that are not able to surpass fart-app complexity, and you can bet that there is a long tail of very many people in this group that will never earn a dime but keep churning out calculator and flashlight apps.

True, many many many great developers do not make it. But that is due to competition by other very well skilled developer groups or companies. Luck and money help in pulling companies and developers to the top levels in the rankings. So, again luck and money help. But without a good set of skills you will not even beat the fart and flashlight apps.
 
Wrong. This is NOT as black and white an issue as you profess.

Developing is no different than any other endeavor. Nothing worthwhile is easily obtained. It simply takes a lot of hard work, good ideas, and a lot of follow-through.

We are also NOT slaves to your statistics. Anything is possible.

While in the case of developers you may be right, but tell that to the many many many young YouTuber's that do nothing but sit in their room playing video games or outside pranking or doing iPhone drop tests or other frivolous activities and easily racking up well over 1-3 million subscribers resulting in easy 7 figure incomes. Making plenty enough money for early retirement. :D
 
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But that is exactly where the heart of the problem is. By your rationale all developers have the skills to produce (successful) apps. The fact of the matter is that most of them don't. What you need to get noticed in the App Store now is a solid set of design skills, developed coding skills and implementation skills (marketing skills help too). Since not many people possess these skills at the same time, it is almost a given that you will have difficulty succeeding on your own.
See, this macrumors article states $1billion plus are made in 2 weeks. Now there are some people who think "being a iOS developer is the way to earn money". Then I say: Be careful and know that even if you're doing everything right, most of the time you fail to make your well-deserved money. The outcome is that you are crying about all the good top 50 out of 1.5 million apps are good apps from good developers. Yes – again – you ARE right. But there are a ton of apps that doesn't get the money they should. Got that point? And I don't talk about the apps that have been plugged together by wannabe-developers.

Look at all the top apps until 50 below number 1 in any category. The absolute majority of these are all excellently designed, well coded, and implemented efficiently. Many have vast marketing budgets helping them (look at the old Angry Birds examples).
That (Angry birds) are the lucky ones. Angry birds was NOT successful until – suddenly and months after its release – it became a hit. That was definitely the lucky part. 1000s of other apps of higher quality are not recognised and belong to the money-losing crowd.

I again take Alto's Adventure as an example. This is a duo of two guys who had three run-of-the-mill normal apps (not even games) and decided to take a different step and make Alto. The combination of these two guys is golden (you could call that luck) and their skills are perfectly matched to create a well designed game both in terms of graphics and gameplay. They became noticed because of that.
Not the combination of the two guys should be called luck. But that they finally made it is the combination of this fact, their skills AND luck ;)

The App store is still riddled with developers that are not able to surpass fart-app complexity, and you can bet that there is a long tail of very many people in this group that will never earn a dime but keep churning out calculator and flashlight apps.
Bluetooth enabler and Flashlight Apps are on the list of my lucky winners. Nearly NO costs and a good amount of money. For some of them (the lucky ones). All others lose.

True, many many many great developers do not make it. But that is due to competition by other very well skilled developer groups or companies. Luck and money help in pulling companies and developers to the top levels in the rankings. So, again luck and money help. But without a good set of skills you will not even beat the fart and flashlight apps.
You're making my point. You only need to change "Luck and money help" to "Either luck or money is needed" ... besides the skills that are – as you yourself said very well - the basis ;)
 
Record App Store sales = record iPhone sales.

Possibly true, but not necessarily. But I imagine that is what the goal of Apple's announcement was, to cause many to assume it directly correlates to hardware sales. However, it doesn't necessarily correlate, but I'm quite bullish and expect Apple to beat earnings expectations. I just hope AAPL hits sub-$100 before truly turning around! lol.
 
Come on Mustang. What truly bad (recent) apps have been propelled to the top purely by luck or marketing money? There is not a single app in the top 20 of any category that was developed by a chimpansee and made it to the top because it went viral or because someone decided to put up a billboard.

My point is that a combination of good design skills and developer skills are necessary to be able to get noticed by anyone in the app store. Featured apps or viral apps are noticed because they are well implemented by one or a team of designers and developers.

Of course luck can help you on the way (you might get noticed by an Apple curator whereas others do not) or have access to money to fund some marketing, but at the basis of it all is a good set of design and implementation skills. Without that you will not get noticed nor get marketing money from anyone.

After this post, I am going to excuse myself from this conversation. It's getting a little tied up in minutiae that takes away points both of you are making. App store success isn't binary. Skill doesn't guarantee success and neither does luck/marketing. It's a combination of the aforementioned and many other things. The app store mirrors pretty much any other industry. It follows the old 80/20 rule. 80% of the money goes to the top 20% of the market.

/prays no one gets pedantic about the percentages

As for bad apps making money? King's portfolio imo (completely subjective cuz lots of people love King). They've taken 1 idea, run it into the ground, and fortunately for them, all the way to the bank. Not much skill involved in rehashing the same app over and over. But they do market the Bejeebus out of them.

Now combine your ideas and hug it out.:D
 
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Over 90% of this money is made by only 1% of all apps. So - being an iOS developer is NOT the solution if you want to make money. You have to be ONE of the 1% (or even less)... and you need a ton of luck and marketing money!

Being "one of the 1%" gives enough money for a full company, not a single developer.

And you don't need full companies to make iOS Apps, for example, Tweetbot was made by 2 guys, Overcast was made by 1 guy, you need full companies to support an App...
 
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