The problem I see with TSLA is that its price is based on a tremendous amount of optimism and expectations that Tesla will outperform what the analysts estimate and prognosticate-- then when that optimism is in any way validated, the price doesn't just stay where it is (indicating that the optimistic expectations are now the baked in), it goes up even faster.
It's not the optimism that makes me dubious, it's the accelerating optimism.
I thought I knew better once, and got badly burned. My pockets just aren't deep enough to profit from what every rational fiber in my body believes is true about TSLA.
Well I can agree to that! However wasn't the same said to be true of AAPL not too long ago?
Optimism of Jobs' return, shifting of the board, executive staff for months before being validated when iMac was debuted, and even then lots of doubts UNTIL the million units sold in a a record time frame from any computer competitor in history.
Still the stock has strange moves, 24-48 trading hours before financial results announced moves down. Maybe that's on puts or other type of calls that affects the stock - I don't really know much about that. yet.
I think the tremendous amount of optimism in Tesla is due to the innovation that continues with that company compared to every other car manufacturer and now soon enough (accelerated optimism). Most of this tremendous amount of optimism is based on the globe changing from fossil fuel vehicles into fully electric is happening and will happen by mandate of many countries around the world starting 2026 to 2035. It's not the first electric car company and surely not the first car company to make an electric car, but they're the ones being consistent and that 1 of their founders and leader of the company put his own wealth and earnings into what seemingly is a DIEING company back in 2002-2006 to keep it afloat.
Does that blood sweat and tears and faith remind you of someone and their favourite company? (ahem Jobs & Apple).
The accelerated optimism is mostly coming from innovations of reducing production costs, production times, safety in collisions (despite the media here and there on accidents, deaths - are never good period, fires, etc - yet nothing in comparison on other car companies/models). Also their becoming a big AI company with FSD supposedly how long that'll happen who knows, regulators I'm sure do. Now add to that chip making - that may rival Nvidia's or AMD's with the letters' partnership.
Either way we probably disagree and that's cool.
Not to worry you'll feel better when the stock drops in a week or two based on:
no new news on CyberTruck production location/timeline - still vague,
when those with institutional trades and big & deep pockets pull out their winnings today/tomorrow.
supply chain concerns should be announced in a week from today.
Don't worry that'll sink the stock down to validated optimism. Cheers.