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Okay? Doesn’t really have anything with what I said. I’m just pointing out that when you look at what and who they acquired it adds up to an EV startup and then some.

Right, but Apple aren’t a motor vehicle startup. They have no applied experience in vehicles. Patchworking together acquired companies can’t make up for that.

Great! But the fact that something was done one way in the past doesn’t preclude the possibility that it gets done differently in the future.

That is what is called a leap of faith.

One should never say “never”, but that kind of faith is bound with the family of notions which includes, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result.”


And AGAIN, this has NOTHING to do with what I said. And if you scroll back in my comments on this you’ll see that I believe Apple would need to partner with Toyota or Volkswagen to make it happen to their satisfaction.

Although I replied to you explicitly, I was responding to at least a few commenters, yours but being just one, and explicitly said so.

Since you brought up automakers Toyota and VW, what would be their incentive to “partner” with Apple when they’re managing just fine with engineering electric and zero emission vehicles? Why would they want to partner with an Apple or a Google or a Microsoft when they’re able to focus on their own console/dash/infotainment systems, integral with their own systems, as it suits their product’s design and engineering constraints — constraints they know best?

How is this different from Apple “designing” all components internally and not, say, commissioning Garmin for location-based services on their devices? They It isn’t. That’s because we know Apple have a better way to handle GPS than to “partner” with a different company from a different sector, which are doing just fine for themselves. Why would Toyota and VW consider Apple any differently here?

The more important thing to ponder is why whole adoption of Apple CarPlay and Android Auto are, quietly, being superseded by matured, integrated systems designed and engineered by the major automotive makers themselves. (GM come to mind here, but there are others.) Time may tell, but automotive makers turning to Google and Apple may have been a stop-gap to fill the void of demand as they caught up to designing and engineering their own, integrated dash/console/infotainment systems.


Pure opinion on your part, but I’d remind you that Apple was not a phone handset maker at one time. Nor did they headphones. Just a couple examples.

Apple entered when the mobile phone industry was still nascent, when most people still relied on a land line. Apple entered with the iPhone at the same time the tech industry had been, doggedly, trying to reach a “convergence” solution for cellular communications, organizing personal info on the go (PDAs), and a handheld internet data device. Moreover, Apple had been designing and engineering battery-operated handheld devices for a half-dozen years when they announced the iPhone (and Google had been working Android since acquiring Android in 2005).

Apple are still not a designer of headphones. That’s why they turned to Beats by Dr. Dre. If you mean disposable, ecologically toxic earbuds, then yes, they have designed wireless earbuds. This does not endow them — or endear them — as the new Sennheiser on the block. On this latter point, yes, this is an opinion.


Uh… engineering can be considered a kind of design.

Sure, it can be. So too is standing up and walking up to a hill to see a sunrise from a different angle. To quote from a practitioner in my field:

“Everyone designs. Design occurs anytime you deliberately change an environment to make things better. When you decide what seat to take in an auditorium you’re designing your experience. When you rearrange the furniture in a room or draft an email, you’re designing.”

You’re also engineering your own experience when you change anything in your settings or find an adaptive use for an object.

What we forget is design (and engineering) is not exclusive to Apple or their design team.

But having a computer company with no experience in motor vehicle engineering — mechanical engineering — in 2024, and expect that vehicle to “just work” and to comply with regulations, is as wishful as having, say, Kenmore or Singer announce they’re going to build an computer to compete directly with the Mac.


In fact, interactive designs are not possible without engineering. The point is that Apple doesn’t actually build things. They provide the designs. Designs for both things like interfaces and for things like silicon chips. There’s no distinction in differentiation you’re attempting to point out.

Right. But a bunch of designers in Cupertino aren’t, en masse, mechanical engineers. An automobile absolutely requires the training, knowledge, and experience of mechanical engineering to make it work.


I’m not sure you actually know that as a fact. After all, they had municipal approval to test the early builds on roads.

So they got a hall pass for try out an idea on localized areas with limiting restrictions. OK.

And? How does this translate directly to regulatory approval by NCAP, NHTSA, IIHS, ASEAN, and so on, much less the U.S. DOT or Transport Canada, to operate legally on all roads across all regions? The line between your conjecture and this benchmark isn’t a simple, A-B, one-and-done pit stop.

Anyway. I’m done. And so too is the Apple Car.
 
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Apple...go buy Rivian.
Rivian and Apple?

"Whether Rivian is looking to Apple as a potential savior or partner, or is merely emulating the polished launches of such products as the iPhone in 2007 or the iMac in 1998, is unclear for now. A merger with Apple could certainly provide a solution to Rivian’s financial stress, but it would be an entirely new and possibly tough market for the personal-computer and smartphone pioneer."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rivian-looks-like-its-trying-to-get-apples-attention-bad24bbb
 
Rivian and Apple?

"Whether Rivian is looking to Apple as a potential savior or partner, or is merely emulating the polished launches of such products as the iPhone in 2007 or the iMac in 1998, is unclear for now. A merger with Apple could certainly provide a solution to Rivian’s financial stress, but it would be an entirely new and possibly tough market for the personal-computer and smartphone pioneer."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rivian-looks-like-its-trying-to-get-apples-attention-bad24bbb

Maybe it is a bidding war with Rivian’s CEO as partial auctioneer with his grip on the gavel, in lieu of an impartial auctioneer.

Amazon presently hold over 18 per cent of Rivian’s stock, which in turn produce an exclusive line of vehicles for Amazon.

Amazon have, at present, an even greater cash reserve than Apple.

If this is his “all-in” strategy, the Rivian CEO doing the “will senpai notice me” show stage appeals to Tim Apple suggests dragging he’s wanting to pit Apple and Amazon into a bidding war.

And if that sincerely is his last-ditch goal, then oh, how I hope anti-trust regulators across multiple economic jurisdictions go over this together with a nanometre-scale sieve suitable for filtering the workings of cartels.
 
You need a vision for a product, and then to execute on it. There was a clearly defined goal for the Mac, iPhone, iPad, and the Apple Watch.
Without a clear vision what an Apple Car should be about, where it should be heading for, there is no point in steering (managing the project and hiring people).
This article proves what I have been saying about Tim Cook since 2021

He doesn't have the tech acumen and organizational prowess to make Project Titan work. This is a classic case of the rot starting at the top.
I guess Tim Cook had this notion that an Apple Car ought to be self-driving, at least to distance itself from what other carmakers were doing (past tense; most brands scaled back expectations and investments).

There is something else that is not being talked about, probably not mentioned by Gurman either. All tech companies that are into developing vehicle autonomy (Apple incuded) are in to have their proprietary 'Operating System' become the industry standard. Remember: standardization wlll be an important criterium to have SAE Level 5 driverless vehicles accepted by policy- and rulemakers, as well as the public. Having different, perhaps even competing systems doesn't help in that respect. SAE L2-L4 can coexist next to each other of course.

Well, since SAE L5 seems to be out of the question for the coming years, some say even decades, that makes pursuing your own proprietary OS a non-issue.
Reminds me of Foxconn CEO's claim.

"If we can make iPhones, why can't we make EVs? It is an iPhone with four wheels." 😆
Yes, cars can be considered like this to a large extent (wrote about it in another thread: https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...scussion.2421097/?post=32996780#post-32996780).

But Apple owes it to itself (and to Steve Jobs) NOT to come up with yet another car (albeit in Apple's own distinct Bang & Olufsen-ish style). Foxconn, Huawei, Xiaomi and Sony did; they came up with their own me-too Tesla.
Self-driving cars are stupid. Period.

It would require a paradigm shift in transportation, insurance, safety, road, and fuel/charging infrastructure.

Apple was overreaching.

I don't think Apple would really have any trouble building a car, like say Sony (with Honda) have. I just think that they couldn't make the car that they wanted to make. Something that no other car is like. They could not have launched a car that was just like the others as it would severely damage their brand of trying to create something better than the status quo. They probably realised that to build this "Apple" car would cost too much and be way too painful in the long run, with not much in return. They are never going to be a brand with low margins like Tesla for example. Also I just don't think there is enough money in it for Apple, so they ditched it. I can also imagine they worked about accidents and brand damage things like that can have. The Apple Watch is saving lives, whereas the Apple car is killing people. It wouldn't sit well. It was a bad idea all along. They are better off building some other form of transport, a connected bike or something that would be more in tune with their healthy ethos. Or not bother at all.
Funny thing is that Apple could have (had) it all:
1. distinctive looks reminiscent of Steve Jobs' motto "Design is not just how it looks like, it's how it WORKS", and
2. driverless operation to a level that can't be matched by other developers like Waymo, Tesla, Cruise.

There is a difference in:
1. making and selling cars - it's what other carmakers, incl. Tesla, are quite good at
2. taking over a Rivian or Fisker, then start running a car company - what's the added value in there for Apple?
3. providing Personal Mobility

ad 3. What made Apple's iPhone such a success is that it wasn't just another, albeit fancier, mobile phone...
it redefined what Personal Communication could be about!
Considering how BYD overtook Tesla in EV sales worldwide last year and also have their own battery manufacturing, I’m not sure there’s a suitable computer tech analogy to be made for either.

Possibly the closest analogy is also automotive: Tesla are this century’s Ford, right down to the media organ each principal control/controlled and in their expansion strategies. Even the Ford of then fell second to GM in North America in 1931.
I'd go even further: "Tesla are this decade's Ford". Ever noticed that Teslas are actually very conservatively styled cars. Main difference is that Musk swapped the ICE for battery drive. There are so many challenges and issues that are left unaddressed, also by Tesla. My guess is that discussions in the Apple boardroom never went that far.

How long will it take AI to figure out, that most automobility-related issues have a common denominator?
Any Apple car therefore needs to be a post-Tesla EV (with AV properties) by definition.

GEntKVnXwAYjsEi

Apple...go buy Rivian.
Like I questioned above: what's the added value of running someone else's company that hasn't proved itself on the market yet. I see a huge conflict in using low energy-dense batteries in massive cars like SUVs and trucks. Makes them needlessly expensive, as you need a lot of those costly batteries...

1*hKt41Uy_j6oX_tqZ_1q5GQ.jpeg
 
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No. Jobs himself wasn't error free and did a lot of mistakes. Same is true for me, 1000+ ideas/day but 999 of them are 💩.

What I criticise is that Tim has no plan or at least he seems to have no plan. He just sells the products of Jobs and reiterates the steps he did, so we have: A4...AXX, iPhone ... iPhone XXX. And always the same, new CPU, new Display, new Cameras, bigger, every three years Apple switches from a round design to an edgy design and back again. Thats it.

Touchbar, fail. Butterfly keyboards1..3, fail. Apple Car, fail. AVP (yet another VR glasses), likely to fail. Cloud, missed. AI, missed. Car industry (selling silicon and OS) failed. Apple TV, only alive cause of the iPhone. Apple Music, only alive of the iPhone. Apple Watch, only alive with the iPhone. Apple Arcade, graveyard.

Apple is dead if the iPhone is too boring somedays. And this will happen.


But what could he do? Change its mind?
- Make Apple watch the BEST smartwatch that "just works". So maybe an Android user ist attracted to it and switches to an iPhone/Mac after falling in love with this thing. Make it "just works", so you can use its heart rate monitor with any device you want.
- Same is true for macOS. Let it sync to any device including Android devices. Show people who cool Apple is. Get away from "uh, its Apple, doesn't work with your phone".
- Make Apple Pay a service other companies can license (like garmin).
- Fix the damn bugs (come on you are a $3 trillion company).
- Make macOS the BEST platform for AI development and machine learning (and yes that includes NVidia/Cuda).
- If you do Apple TV, don't control the content. Make it the best place to watch movies no matter which platform.
- If you do iCloud, make sure it is the best cloud and integrates easily in Linux/Windows/whateverOS.
- maybe create an "applePie" for the community/industry (-> raspberryPi) and enter the world of IoT.

=> If you open your mind, new ideas will come naturally. When you keep sitting inside your wallet garden you'll find out that this can be a lonely place.

You see where this would lead to: Throw away the wallet garden approach, cause we live in a connected world and wallet gardens will fail sooner or later (Apple HAD to implement Mutter, cause the Apple universe is too small).
Interesting. I like Apple products because of the walled garden. It’s part of what makes it “just work”. I have no desire to have some plastic PC with a crappy screen, or Android with its awful UI.

I want the consistent, slick, easy to use experience. That’s what Apple provides. They should focus on their core ethos. If you don’t care about good design or all the little touches? There’s Windows 11 and Android to satiate one’s needs to install Chinese apps from the internet. Or to run ancient Windows apps with non standard UIs from the Bush administration.

This is also why they shouldn’t be building cars. Leave designing vehicles to manufacturers who are experienced in doing so. Apple cannot chase being a jack-of-all-trades. They’ll end up mastering nothing.
 
Interesting. I like Apple products because of the walled garden. It’s part of what makes it “just work”. I have no desire to have some plastic PC with a crappy screen, or Android with its awful UI.

I want the consistent, slick, easy to use experience. That’s what Apple provides. They should focus on their core ethos. If you don’t care about good design or all the little touches? There’s Windows 11 and Android to satiate one’s needs to install Chinese apps from the internet. Or to run ancient Windows apps with non standard UIs from the Bush administration.

This is also why they shouldn’t be building cars. Leave designing vehicles to manufacturers who are experienced in doing so. Apple cannot chase being a jack-of-all-trades. They’ll end up mastering nothing.

I can can give you a different view of „just works“:

- I got my first Mac in 2006. At this time there were lots of siemens, Nokia, younameit … cellphones. It was cumbersome to synchronize your contacts and calendars. With a Mac there was iSync and it synced your data no matter what cellphone brand you connected. Just works. Today it only syncs with iPhone.

- macOS was and is build upon opensource. Darwin, OpenGL, Cups. Apple shipped with the latest and greatest toolset for OpenGL development and debugging. Apple killed it and instead of switching to Vulkan, it switched to proprietary Metal.

- The ease of use you‘re talking about was true, since Jobs relied on 80/20. Se he wanted a smaller feature set, with only 80% of the Features implemented, or the other way round: Features only needed by a smaller subset of people were not implemented. The remaining 80% were rock solid and easy to use. Tim ignores this principle and keeps adding more and more features every year. „just works“ is history.

…..

Enough said, there are more topics. But long story short: Tim is the wrong man to lead Apple. He managed to sell Jobs products in an extraordinary way, but that‘s it. No innovation, no new products, no visions and no plan for the future.
 
I'd go even further: "Tesla are this decade's Ford".

Tesla’s skipper is — hook, line, and sinker — mimicking most of the core aspects Henry Ford instilled into the reorganized Ford brand when the Model T went on sale. That is: Musk has adopted many of the core tenets of Fordism. This also means Xitter is his Dearborn Independent, and not in any superficial, coincidental way.

Ever noticed that Teslas are actually very conservatively styled cars. Main difference is that Musk swapped the ICE for battery drive. There are so many challenges and issues that are left unaddressed, also by Tesla.

That’s not accidental.

As with Teslas, Model Ts underwent minute, incremental, almost imperceptible changes across 19 years, none of which would shut down assembly lines, but could be steadily brought into use, even within the same “model year”. Model Ts were, eventually, painted in one hue, but began as four hues. Unlike other automakers, Tesla’s colours haven’t changed significantly going back to the first Model S. Tesla’s “any colour as long as it’s black” is white (with the other few colours available at added cost).

How long will it take AI to figure out, that most automobility-related issues have a common denominator?
Any Apple car therefore needs to be a post-Tesla EV (with AV properties) by definition.

The value of AI is only as good as the core data sets — the knowledge sets — they have available.

If AI tasked with this problem are handed incomplete or “gamed”/“goosed” data sets from parties heavily invested to uphold how built form, companion transportation planning, and industry (like the Teslas and GMs and VWs and on and on) hope to maintain a post-WWII paradigm for as long as humanly possible, then the AI’s findings will not be very instructive or novel.

To give an AI the task — and to not prohibit from access to bodies of human knowledge — and for the AI to answer with “inconvenient” findings (such as, “capitalism is not the best way to allocate labour and resources most efficiently” or “private automobile ownership needs to be phased out and the reconfiguration of existing built form must be altered to accommodate other means of human movement”), is not exactly something capitalists and Silly Valley entrepreneurs, sinking hundreds of billions into AI development right now, want to see get spat back out at them. They don’t want to witness their AI “children” completely learn to reject them and all their core values as being incompatible with the conservation of all life on the planet, as well as the conservation of extant AI.


Like I questioned above: what's the added value of running someone else's company that hasn't proved itself on the market yet. I see a huge conflict in using low energy-dense batteries in massive cars like SUVs and trucks. Makes them needlessly expensive, as you need a lot of those costly batteries...

1*hKt41Uy_j6oX_tqZ_1q5GQ.jpeg

There are two parts to this illustration not discussed:

1) Heavier vehicles, used in the same quantity and in the stead of lighter vehicles, wear down pavement and asphalt more quickly. Repair/upkeep raises capital costs to maintain public roads and public bridges. This means funding for those capital expenses must be met to do the work. This tends to mean an increase in tax revenue to cover the cost of that work. Unfortunately, some folks who are kosher with using those public roads and public bridges a lot also happen to consider paying for their infrastructure upkeep to be anathema of everything they hold dear — namely, of trying to winnow, if not end taxation.

2) Larger vehicles, including ICE, speak to lax regulation in places as North America on taxing manufacturing, licensing, and usage. There is no “organic” trend toward motorists ditching cars toward SUVs and crossovers without taking into account the framework of a regulatory environment.

A good example: the “light duty truck” designation enjoying certain regulatory exemptions cars cannot escape.

Another good example: maintaining low-cost or free, on-street parking in several North American cities, particularly in residential areas.

A third good example: not tiering the cost of vehicle registration against a) the external dimensions of the vehicle; b) the tare weight of the vehicle; and/or c) the energy consumption of the vehicle. Worse, eliminating all registration fees for vehicles only worsens these chronic issues (as with the very recent move by Ontario, here in Canada, of eliminating plating fees altogether).
 
Funny thing is that Apple could have (had) it all:
1. distinctive looks reminiscent of Steve Jobs' motto "Design is not just how it looks like, it's how it WORKS", and
2. driverless operation to a level that can't be matched by other developers like Waymo, Tesla, Cruise.
This would have been interesting to see.
 
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Here's my first hint:

old%20phone%20+%20smartphone%20(3).jpg


New technology, new expectations and possibilities should bring us to rethink shapes, formats and packaging.
Of vehicles? I mean that may work if Apple never planned on selling to the public (say like trying to make busses and taxis out of business). People aren't too keen on vehicles not looking like "normal" shapes for vehicles (look at the distain for the CyberTruck).

Personally I was more curious how they were going to leapfrog Waymo and Tesla with vehicle autonomy.
 
I guess Tim Cook had this notion that an Apple Car ought to be self-driving, at least to distance itself from what other carmakers were doing (past tense; most brands scaled back expectations and investments).
Self-driving is the only way to go. Whether Tim knows it, self-driving frees the driver to interact with or even immerse in Apple's entertainment ecosystem, which increases a car's profit margin through subscriptions. It doesn't have to be at L5 but it has to be darn close so most drivers would feel comfortable not having their hands on the steering wheel.

One of Apple's struggles is with identity. It's used to having the kind of margin that's hard to come by in the automobile industry unless you're at the high end of the market, but for Apple to make money on Apple Car, it cannot sell only to the top 1% like Ferrari. It's used to being the "luxury" brand, but for Apple to break even, it might have to market a variant of Apple Car to the public transportation sector, e.g., as a viable last-leg vehicle after someone gets dropped off by a bus or picked up from his or her home to the nearest bus stop, after achieving L5.

All of this is to say that Tim Cook has no roadmap and puts no thought behind Project Titan as evidenced by this quote from the Bloomberg article:
“If Bob or Doug ever had a reasonable set of objectives, they could have shipped a car,” says someone who was deeply involved in the project. “They’d ask to take the next step, and Tim would frequently say, ‘Get me more data, and let me think about it.’”

"Get more data" when Apple is trying to develop the first L5 EV. Think about that response from Tim Cook. It's not prudence, the guy just doesn't know what to do when someone else hasn't done it already (thus having data available).
 
Self-driving is the only way to go. Whether Tim knows it, self-driving frees the driver to interact with or even immerse in Apple's entertainment ecosystem, which increases a car's profit margin through subscriptions. It doesn't have to be at L5 but it has to be darn close so most drivers would feel comfortable not having their hands on the steering wheel.

One of Apple's struggles is with identity. It's used to having the kind of margin that's hard to come by in the automobile industry unless you're at the high end of the market, but for Apple to make money on Apple Car, it cannot sell only to the top 1% like Ferrari. It's used to being the "luxury" brand, but for Apple to break even, it might have to market a variant of Apple Car to the public transportation sector, e.g., as a viable last-leg vehicle after someone gets dropped off by a bus or picked up from his or her home to the nearest bus stop, after achieving L5.

All of this is to say that Tim Cook has no roadmap and puts no thought behind Project Titan as evidenced by this quote from the Bloomberg article:


"Get more data" when Apple is trying to develop the first L5 EV. Think about that response from Tim Cook. It's not prudence, the guy just doesn't know what to do when someone else hasn't done it already (thus having data available).

Self driving cars are a fantasy that we’re not going to see come to market in any significant numbers.
 
Self driving cars are a fantasy that we’re not going to see come to market in any significant numbers.
It depends on what level of self-driving we're talking about. "Fantasy" is too strong a word.

If road infrastructure can be upgraded or modified along with the advancement of technology, it's completely doable to achieve L4 for a species that had sent men to the moon. They're already doing that in Japan with the self-driving-friendly road infrastructure.

You can even have an algorithm built into the software that assesses and adjusts the level of autonomy the vehicle should be at. Not all roads are the same. L5 on a well-maintained highway is definitely within reach in a few years and we can build on that going forward. It doesn't help that North Americans have almost an antagonistic relationship with robots (look at all the movies coming out of Hollywood), unlike the Japanese.
 
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It depends on what level of self-driving we're talking about. "Fantasy" is too strong a word.

If road infrastructure can be upgraded or modified along with the advancement of technology, it's completely doable to achieve L4 for a species that had sent men to the moon. They're already doing that in Japan with the self-driving-friendly road infrastructure.

You can even have an algorithm built into the software that assesses and adjusts the level of autonomy the vehicle should be at. Not all roads are the same. L5 on a well-maintained highway is definitely within reach in a few years and we can build on that going forward.

The greater delusion fantasy, one held onto by some (and with roots dating to the 20th century), is in the deep faith conviction of sticking every individual/household into a car — self-driving or not — and thinking this will solve anything, at all, other than sticking every individual/household into a car and making car manufacturers endless money. It’s as if they believe there are hidden reserves for space and resources from up to seven other hidden planet Earths which, conveniently, have no people on them, just the raw resources and physical surface space for us, on “Earth 1”, to draw from.

If that isn’t an ironclad case of folks thinking deep inside the box to come up, paradoxically, with creative solutions, then nothing is. 🤷‍♀️


It doesn't help that North Americans have almost an antagonistic relationship with robots (look at all the movies coming out of Hollywood), unlike the Japanese.

It’s not that Japanese culture ascribes a positive relationship to robots because they’re robots.

Rather, it’s that all inanimate objects, including robots, are ascribed to having hanrei-setsu (判例ー説), or their own soul, so to speak.

The word for this, a loan word, is アニミズム, or animism (from, lit., “animated”). This belief has Shinto roots and is also related to a belief of objects which persist for over a century taking on a kami, or spirit, of their own.

So acceptance of robots and other life-mimicking technologies, in addition to completely inanimate objects like a camera or a beverage bottle, stems from this hanrei-setsu. This may also help gaijin, or non-Japanese, to understand better why many Japanese people take exceptionally good care of their possessions and tend to do so for a very long time, rather than cycle to through buying of the same thing anew every few years out of, say, planned obsolescence (a very 20th century, very American, Alfred P. Sloan, Jr. idea).
 
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In China and Japan (I believe Toyota even build a couple of city blocks around automation incl. driverless cars) they are reportedly further. THE thing is that full autonomy may well require the sort of V2V and grid control that Americans in particular see as a 'Big Brother is watching you' infringement of their privacy. And government control already seems to be a tricky subject in the U.S. My 3rd hint:

zgBtQB7Ydmg6T9qwypE8xLAA2DcCpVtHuRM-riQLK0408o-syD3x1qh7ES6Nw-uhhFYn7p0TNbNmQO4JPhB141lNoKNO2tw1ILME5QCz88V-S6US6na83MVu1xEJUj3HQE5vCQ3xdul1bPAMzTJhQO88xA=s2048

Is vehicle autonomy technology meant to make cars as we know them today self-driving? Because that didn't quite work out. Or could a more purposefully designed vehicle squeeze more precision - safety - smoothness out of any VA tech? There are three basic ways of looking at driverless…

1 From a driving perspective: AV tech has not panned out as planned, despite the more than $100 billion that already went into this.

2 From a situational viewpoint: traffic and the set of rules and regulations are a given.
AV developers like Tesla, Waymo and Cruise did their fair share to bend the rules of piloting and acceptance.

FgamnovXgAA4lpr


3 But what about the ‘hardware’? Could a vehicle work as an enabler of AV tech?
 
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In China and Japan (I believe Toyota even build a couple of city blocks around automation incl. driverless cars) they are reportedly further. THE thing is that full autonomy may well require the sort of V2V and grid control that Americans in particular see as a 'Big Brother is watching you' infringement of their privacy. And government control already seems to be a tricky subject in the U.S. My 3rd hint:

zgBtQB7Ydmg6T9qwypE8xLAA2DcCpVtHuRM-riQLK0408o-syD3x1qh7ES6Nw-uhhFYn7p0TNbNmQO4JPhB141lNoKNO2tw1ILME5QCz88V-S6US6na83MVu1xEJUj3HQE5vCQ3xdul1bPAMzTJhQO88xA=s2048

Is vehicle autonomy technology meant to make cars as we know them today self-driving? Because that didn't quite work out. Or could a more purposefully designed vehicle squeeze more precision - safety - smoothness out of any VA tech? There are three basic ways of looking at driverless…

1 From a driving perspective: AV tech has not panned out as planned, despite the more than $100 billion that already went into this.

2 From a situational viewpoint: traffic and the set of rules and regulations are a given.
AV developers like Tesla, Waymo and Cruise did their fair share to bend the rules of piloting and acceptance.

3 But what about the ‘hardware’? Could a vehicle work as an enabler of AV tech?

A quick aside: is there a material reason for these memes? They aren’t instructive to your thesis or to this discussion.

1710085717060.png


But if we’re going along with the illustrating thing, 60 AVs still take up as much space as 60 “HDVs” (“human-driven vehicles”), even if all 60 AVs are Minority Report-styled virtual track-driven AVs like that fictitious Lexus seen gratuitously throughout.

Not seen with the classic 60-people-in-different-configurations poster (the original version from 1980 or, as excerpted above, the contemporary take) is an example of even more people in a streetcar, which utilizes literal tracks that are predictable, stable in place over time, and invite developers to build “missing middle” housing, shopping, work, and schools — less haphazardly so — along and within short walking distance from those desired corridors.

It lowers congestion. It opens arterials (main roads) to multi-function routes. It reduces wear on the pavement/asphalt. It saves on capital expenditures for keeping road infrastructure in good repair for the long term. It improves overall public (and private) quality of living. It invites active movement — bicycling, walking, and so on. It frees up room for more corridors of foliage to serve as “lungs” for the neighbourhoods, cities, and burghs in between.

Trying to make the world an AV one is not even science fiction by this point, but one of science fantasy, if not simply dime-store fantasy. Except it’s not terribly creative nor takes into consideration the laundry list of problems with AVs “sharing” roads with actual human beings who aren’t in motor vehicles, whether EV, ICE, or hybrid. It’s a matter of trust.

Still, I reckon tech has so much money to burn though in that quest right now that it raises the question of how evenly their amassed resources were allocated over the last couple of decades, and it raises the question of how much more wisely that capital could be better allocated to make places where people live, play, and move about a safer, less hostile one for everyone.
 
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It depends on what level of self-driving we're talking about. "Fantasy" is too strong a word.

If road infrastructure can be upgraded or modified along with the advancement of technology, it's completely doable to achieve L4 for a species that had sent men to the moon. They're already doing that in Japan with the self-driving-friendly road infrastructure.

You can even have an algorithm built into the software that assesses and adjusts the level of autonomy the vehicle should be at. Not all roads are the same. L5 on a well-maintained highway is definitely within reach in a few years and we can build on that going forward. It doesn't help that North Americans have almost an antagonistic relationship with robots (look at all the movies coming out of Hollywood), unlike the Japanese.

Nope. This isn’t going to happen. The amount of money and effort required to upgrade all the roads would be far too high and would be a drastic misuse of resources that could and should be used to develop mass transit systems, not jamming more and more individual vehicles onto the streets and roads.

The fantasy of fully autonomous vehicles is not going to come true. Y’all need to let it go.
 
I decide what is instrumental to my line of thought, thank you.

Fair enough.

If you hope (or expect) for others to comprehend what you’re getting at, then it will help you to articulate your thesis in words. Most of these infographic memes posted across these two threads — so far — lamenting the dead Apple Car and wishful thinking (or critique!) around autonomous vehicles are, at best, challenging to follow (even for someone who, like me, made a first career in visual graphic communications before taking that skill into urbanism) and, at worst, vague enough to detract from whatever point/thesis is being made.

Keep doing it. But don’t expect a tonne of folks to be able to follow along with your train of infographic thought in lieu of complete, written thoughts. Infographics should support a thesis and data, not lead before them.
 
Are you actually serious? Apple is many times more valuable now than it was when Tim first took over.
spoken like a true bean counter. You will fit right in..in the new boeing or apple.

Apple's shares are many times more valuable because they are a money printer due to the products developed by steve jobs (and his teams), like i said before what has tim cook actually contributed in the last 10+ years taking over? The only thing he did that moved the needle somewhat was the apple silicon transition.
 
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Nope. This isn’t going to happen. The amount of money and effort required to upgrade all the roads would be far too high and would be a drastic misuse of resources that could and should be used to develop mass transit systems, not jamming more and more individual vehicles onto the streets and roads.

The fantasy of fully autonomous vehicles is not going to come true. Y’all need to let it go.
I don't know if you noticed that your obsession with "mass transit systems" and your disdain for "individual vehicles" conflict in the real world when it comes to autonomous vehicles.

More autonomous vehicles on the road would lead to fewer cars overall because they can complement public transit as last-leg vehicles going from bus stops to passengers' homes. In other words, if you support public transportation, you should be rooting for the realization of L5 EVs. This isn't my idea either. Autonomous vehicles as last-leg vehicles have been talked about for years now in transit circles.

And, by the way, do your research or at least check with ChatGPT before you talk about the costs and benefits of upgrading infrastructure. You come across as a clueless ideologue who doesn't know what he's talking about even though you made a few good points. Improving infrastructure is never the wrong investment to make. How do you think buses transport people? They go on roads. Self-driving-friendly roads (you should research what they are) are safer to drive on for buses, and other motor vehicles too.
 
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The greater delusion fantasy, one held onto by some (and with roots dating to the 20th century), is in the deep faith conviction of sticking every individual/household into a car — self-driving or not — and thinking this will solve anything, at all, other than sticking every individual/household into a car and making car manufacturers endless money. It’s as if they believe there are hidden reserves for space and resources from up to seven other hidden planet Earths which, conveniently, have no people on them, just the raw resources and physical surface space for us, on “Earth 1”, to draw from.

If that isn’t an ironclad case of folks thinking deep inside the box to come up, paradoxically, with creative solutions, then nothing is. 🤷‍♀️
We were talking about autonomous EVs. Not North Americans' obsession with cars.

Appreciate the cultural commentary though.
 
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I don't know if you noticed that your obsession with "mass transit systems" and your disdain for "individual vehicles" conflict in the real world when it comes to autonomous vehicles.

More autonomous vehicles on the road would lead to fewer cars overall because they can complement public transit as last-leg vehicles going from bus stops to passengers' homes. In other words, if you support public transportation, you should be rooting for the realization of L5 EVs. This isn't my idea either. Autonomous vehicles as last-leg vehicles have been talked about for years now in transit circles.

And, by the way, do your research or at least check with ChatGPT before you talk about the costs and benefits of upgrading infrastructure. You come across as a clueless ideologue who doesn't know what he's talking about even though you made a few good points. Improving infrastructure is never the wrong investment to make. How do you think buses transport people? They go on roads. Self-driving-friendly roads (you should research what they are) are safer to drive on for buses, and other motor vehicles too.

Yeah, yeah. I’ve heard the talking points many many times. Saying them more aggressively and accusing me of being ignorant is just nonsense posturing. My comment stands. The costs and logistics involved with upgrading the NATION’S roads to accommodate self driving vehicles would be astronomical and provide a questionable end benefit, assuming such upgrades actually would lead to safer trips, which is itself a questionable assumption.

So skip the insulting “do your research” quips. That isn’t productive and it proves nothing. If you have data to back up your claims, show it. Telling me to “do your research” is a common mistake in casual debate.
 
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