Its possible -- this is a big risk on Google's part. It's not like Motorola was making tons of money -- they were losing money or almost breaking even. I think Google was cornered (by Motorola) into doing this because the alternative was
Motorola being acquired by Microsoft.
Since this happened I have felt that there has to be more to this than the patents. After all, Motorola's patents have done nothing to sway Apple and Microsoft from suing them -- they are obviously not scared. That could be partially because many of Motorola's patents that are most-important to the industry are encumbered with FRAND licensing requirements (i.e.: federal regulations require you license them at a fair rate to competitors).
I think
this article sums up many of my misgivings about the "patent angle" that Google is publicly sharing. Certainly Google is not laying all their cards on the table with a move this big and this bold. Basically it boils down to the fact that the net acquisition of Motorola Mobility is costing Google about $9.5B (since Motorola had $3B in cash). Android is currently losing money for Google since they don't charge for the OS licensing and they only make $6 per Android user per year. Consider the cost of development, marketing, litigation with Oracle, and of course the acquisition of patents to defend Android, and then add the net cost of Motorola Mobility and you are looking at least about 10 year return on investment (or 1.5 years of search advertising revenue).
That is why I think Google is going to transition to manufacturing phones themselves and competing with their former partners. Every previous company that has attempted licensing its own software and then competing against it has failed in that endeavor (e.g.: Palm, Apple). Those who have tried it in the past have at least collected licensing fees from their licensing partners / competitors. Google is giving Android away -- I don't see how that model will make money for them and somehow succeed where Palm and Apple failed to license their OS
and compete against it.
Anyway, there is certainly more to this acquisition than patents. If this was all about patents, then Google overpaid by a ton. Even if they plan on developing their own devices and going the "Apple route" as AllThingsD
suggests, they still may have overpaid for Motorola, but were likely forced to make Microsoft think twice before outbidding them -- just like Google forced Microsoft to overpay for Skype. What goes around comes around.
Yum.