HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors G5
it seems no one has mentioned the obvious 1 2 punch to adobe. Ifgets Hulu then everything should be HTML5 from there on and no more flash needed for most of the people that watch shows in the US at least.
Everyone else would follow w/ HTML5 after Hulu and Flash would be dare I say it dead or at least on it's last leg. Buying Hulu is for killing Flash first then the extras of owning it.
How many times does it have to be posted? FLASH IS NOT JUST VIDEO. Flash does a whole bunch of other things besides video. I would guess that if we could analyze all Flash everywhere on the web, we would find that more than half of it is not for video purposes. It's simply popular as a video container because it is THE standard that runs on just about everything connected to the Internet BESIDES iDevices. HTML5 video cannot even come close to competing with that yet (because almost everything besides Apple computers & iDevices and a few others canNOT play HTML5 video yet). Yes, all us Apple people and a small group of others are well set up for that conversion today, but almost ALL of the rest of the planet is not.
My company just went through a transitional effort to kill off Flash on our website so that we could also showcase our offerings in full to the iDevice crowd (too). Here's the gist of the bigger issues:
- We can't embrace HTML5 + h.264 + javascript exclusively because the vast majority of the world can't use it today. That's actually a killer right there. It's not an either-or. If we want to embrace HTML5, we still have to keep a Flash version TOO because most of the world can't deal with HTML5. We don't want to alienate the world just to reach the relatively small crowd currently capable of handling HTML5. So the practical choice is: BOTH (expensive), vast majority (serve Flash exclusively), relatively tiny minority (serve HTML5 exclusively).
- There are NO QUALITY TOOLS available to replicate what the non-video Flash uses on our site are doing, so the ONLY option for that is to pay up big for custom-coded solutions which then still COULD NOT be used exclusively for all users. It's just new work & cost because Apple decided to forbid the user OPTION of Flash. Ultimately, guess who pays for those added costs because Apple made that decision?
- In order to replicate some simpler things done in Flash so that they would work for both the bigger world AND iDevice users, we generally found that we had to make compromises- often in nice bits of functionality and in things like file sizes. For example, one bit of Flash media that used to do something we like in about 120K is now a 500K alternative that yields about the same experience for the greater world and iDevice users.
- Etc. (there's many when a company uses elements of Flash that are not just the video player parts).
Bottom line, the "dream" of killing Flash by converting to HTML5 can't work if every Flash video on the planet was "magically" converted today. If so, the vast majority of Internet users could not watch those videos. It would be the equivalent of shutting out a very high percentage of people from being able to see any video to satisfy the smaller crowd (relatively a MUCH smaller crowd) that is capable of it (today).
To replicate the rest of what Flash can do (beyond video) with HTML5 + h.264 + javascript so that both camps are fed what they want involves lots of duplication of effort and lots of branches of code. Right now, you can develop web multimedia (such as an interactive educational presentation) in Flash and it will run on just about every web-connected device on the planet EXCEPT for those where Apple has arbitrarily decided that NO CUSTOMERS shall have even the OPTION to run Flash on their devices. While it is possible to spend a lot of money to create a reasonable duplication of the same presentation in HTML5 + H.264 + javascript, it's not an either-or proposition... it's just EXTRA work & cost to serve the relatively small segment Apple has locked out of the individual OPTION for Flash. We still must ALSO create the Flash version so that the much larger non-Apple crowd can see it too. Very simply: it's lots of added cost & time because Apple has decided we iDevice users shall not even have the OPTION for Flash if we would like to burn our OWN batteries faster and "crash MY Safari browser every day", etc.
NO company wanting to serve the whole planet can embrace HTML5 + h.264 + javascript and jettison Flash today and still serve mixed media to that whole planet. All that company can do is spend MORE money and more time to create an HTML5 version for those iDevices that are locked out of Flash. The whole rest of the world can already run the Flash version that's probably already on their websites and maybe has been for some time.
Lastly, going forward, if a company wants to serve both the greater world and the iDevice crowd with various forms of new mixed media creations, everything involved is at least doubled because there is NO company choice to exclusively go with HTML5 unless they ONLY want to cater to a relatively very small crowd that can use it today. While HTML5 may indeed be the future, it is far from being the present. The time between now and when HTML5 is capable of fully and completely replacing the entirety of Flash is going to involve much more time than the working lives of any iDevice that anyone owns today. I can appreciate that future, but if it is as superior as we are wanting to believe, it will arrive whether individuals are given the present OPTION for Flash on their iDevices or not, much like how a fair amount of early (now deprecated) HTML still works properly in modern browsers while it continues to be transitioned out.
I for one would prefer to enjoy the whole Internet on my own iDevice today, rather than have Apple decide for me. I do not want my own desire forced on everyone else with iDevices. To the contrary, I see Flash as an optional app just like any other app. You want it? You download it on your own iDevice. Don't want it? Don't download it. Some apps in the store right now burn your batteries faster and crash your iDevices often when compared to other apps in the app store that don't. The difference is that we have the CHOICE of downloading big resource-hogging and/or buggy apps or not... BUT at least we have that CHOICE for ourselves. I expect a completed HTML5 transition to get here just about as fast as the transition from HTML2 to HTML4+ (which, by the way, is still ongoing, much like the video conversion from SD to HD video standards).
That is the reality of Flash vs. HTML5. It's far from a simple video conversion. And even if it was, we're far from being able to jettison one for the other if the content creators want their content to be viewable/playable on all Internet-access devices everywhere. If all you have is Apple stuff, then you're completely ready for that transition today. However, as popular as Apple stuff is to those of us who frequent this site, we as a group are a very tiny minority relative to the world who accesses multimedia (not just video) content on the web.
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