And what exactly are people "stealing" by "returning" 100 gold coins in an app - a couple bytes of database space?
I operate my own small business, a small hardware device with an online system connected - getting in on the "smart home" craze. Manufacturing is outsourced, so we don't have to deal with manufacturing shrink, we just pay a per-unit contracted cost. The online service, as with any of these games, is practically zero cost-per-unit. If someone cancels a service, or asks for a refund (which we always offer). Yes, hardware space and bandwidth cost money, but there is no "direct cost" per-user.
Hardware-wise, in the past month, we've had $2388 which I'd classify as shrink at retail price, $912 at cost price. That includes:
- 1 unit damaged in warehouse
- 3 units lost by couriers shipping to customer
- 4 "change of mind" hardware returns that couldn't be re-sold
- 1 unit that was bought via PayPal with a stolen credit card (we had to swallow the cost)
- 3 units that were returned as being faulty, which we determined was fraudulent - 1 had a smashed screen which couldn't have happened during qa/shipping (impact mark), one which was obviously dropped and cracked but otherwise seemed to work fine, and 1 which was returned because apparently only the accessories were in the box, not the unit itself (even though we could see the unit was online, and connected to our service - not for long though!)
At cost price, for us that was around 0.9% shrink vs revenue, and around 1.4% vs per-item profit margins (not taking into account operating costs here). That's something we have to budget for - we *know* it's going to happen, and we take that into account. 100% of our shrink costs come from hardware, not software. Out of that, only a third of shrink was down to "fraud".
Saying shrink can't happen with a digital product is silly. Of course it's going to happen. If you're dealing with people, at some point you're going to deal with fraud. Fact of life. The only difference is the physical cost behind it doesn't scale the same way as with physical products.
Here's two examples:
1. Company A sells a video streaming service for $10/month. Someone purchases a subscription uses a stolen credit card, and watches 50 films. The credit card company (rightfully) does a chargeback 14 days later, and the company cancels the service. A movie averages at 1.5GB, using 75GB bandwidth. They pay AWS $0.06/GB for bandwidth, which equates to $4.50. They also have to pay the rights holders $0.10 per viewing as part of their agreement. That's $5, meaning that the total cost of the fraud is $9.50 - that's $9.50 worth of shrink.
2. Company B offers a mobile video game for free on the App Store, and sells packs of "100 gold coins" for $5. When a user buys coins, they can use them to buy items in the store - the transaction is purely in the game, and the only result of buying the coins is a database entry to tell the game "hey, user X bought 100 coins". Somebody buys 100 packs of coins for $500, buying all sorts of virtual items for their character, again, all database entries. The user claims their child accidentally bought the coins, and Apple refunds the $500. Company B hasn't lost money, other than perhaps a couple of cent in bandwidth costs. Shrink is effectively 0.
That's why I don't understand them chasing so much - unless there is a physical per-unit cost behind it, it's really not worth it. So what if someone buys a game or coins and returns them, they've lost a sale, sure, but they haven't lost money.
you work for company A and i'm another customer. i don't give a flying f*** if Fred next door can or can't watch the latest Star Wars movie because of his fraudulent dealings with you. it literally has no material affect on the outside world.
you work for company B and i'm a customer on the same server as Fred. While you haven't lost money, what you've done is enabled Fred to gain an unfair advantage over me and many others who have not bought the coins and got the stuff for free. of course, we don't know that he hasn't paid for them - perhaps he's just a mr moneybags. but word gets out, the big spenders get upset that people competing with them are doing so by fraud and a ********* goes down on the game's message boards. shrink isn't measurable in terms of lost sales - yet - but is high in terms of lost reputation and goodwill. it could well have a material effect an order of magnitude higher than company A's issues going forward.
comparing a video streaming service which serves one end user at a time, to a MMO game where the actions of one gamer affect the others is silly.