Apple Cutting Back 2026 Hardware Shipments Due to Memory Shortage

[BillyJoeJimBob]

What will eventually happen is this: The End of Personal Computing: The "shortages" are all pointing to the day when the only new option will be what we used to call a "dumb-terminal". You're "computer" is simply going to point to an AI data center to do the computing function and you will have to be on some sort of subscription model (and perhaps a favorable social credit score) to get anything done aside from email and text. Write it down.

 

[apple2me]

I guess they optimized their "OSes" this year because of memory constraints. I wish it continues and software gets more optimized further. 🙂

 

[Patroclus]

Apple is scaling back its hardware shipment plans in 2026 due to DRAM shortages

This is what happens when there is a monopoly and you depends on few companies to produce what you need for your product. Apple should have invest in USA and build a manufacturing company to build memroy for their products.

 

[Patroclus]

What will eventually happen is this: The End of Personal Computing: The "shortages" are all pointing to the day when the only new option will be what we used to call a "dumb-terminal". You're "computer" is simply going to point to an AI data center to do the computing function and you will have to be on some sort of subscription model (and perhaps a favorable social credit score) to get anything done aside from email and text. Write it down.

I don’t think so.
What might happen is
Company start making their own memory
(They’re making their own chip).
AI data centers growth slows down due to cost, memory and less demand
Surplus of memory over priced.

 

[theorist9]

What will eventually happen is this: The End of Personal Computing: The "shortages" are all pointing to the day when the only new option will be what we used to call a "dumb-terminal". You're "computer" is simply going to point to an AI data center to do the computing function and you will have to be on some sort of subscription model (and perhaps a favorable social credit score) to get anything done aside from email and text. Write it down.

This goes in cycles and these shortages are temporary. Memory manufacturers are adding new fab capacity, which will come online in a few years.

There will always be a role for local applications, which are more responsive and robust than cloud-based applications. Locally-installed apps don't have the unavoidable round-trip delay inherent to cloud-based applications, and operate even when internet service is disrupted.

And they don't have the inherent privacy issues of cloud-based applications, which require you to send your data to someone else.

 

[DocMultimedia]

I’m hoping mine ships quickly since I’m heading overseas for two months in mid October. I want my new toy!

 

[magbarn]

This goes in cycles and these shortages are temporary. Memory manufacturers are adding new fab capacity, which will come online in a few years.

There will always be a role for local applications, which are more responsive and robust than cloud-based applications. Locally-installed apps don't have the unavoidable round-trip delay inherent to cloud-based applications, and operate even when internet service is disrupted.

And they don't have the inherent privacy issues of cloud-based applications, which require you to send your data to someone else.

AFAIK most of that new memory capacity will be allocated for HBM also. Consumers don't use HBM memory. So the beatings will continue until morale improves.

 

[Happy_John]

Apple needs to buy a DRAM fab

Yeeesss. Because Facebook Marketplace and eBay have a tonne of listings for slightly used DRAM fabs looking for buyers.

To be able to buy a fab, there needs to be a fab for sale. What DRAM fab owner would sell in the current climate?

“We have a goose that lays golden eggs. I know, let’s sell the goose.”

 

[MysticTalisman]

What will eventually happen is this: The End of Personal Computing: The "shortages" are all pointing to the day when the only new option will be what we used to call a "dumb-terminal". You're "computer" is simply going to point to an AI data center to do the computing function and you will have to be on some sort of subscription model (and perhaps a favorable social credit score) to get anything done aside from email and text. Write it down.

I have my Wyse green screen terminal ready.

 

[howywood]

You’ll pay more and wait longer for the best iPhone we’ve ever made. And we think you’re going to love it.

- Tim Apple

 

[MysticTalisman]

This goes in cycles and these shortages are temporary. Memory manufacturers are adding new fab capacity, which will come online in a few years.

There will always be a role for local applications, which are more responsive and robust than cloud-based applications. Locally-installed apps don't have the unavoidable round-trip delay inherent to cloud-based applications, and operate even when internet service is disrupted.

And they don't have the inherent privacy issues of cloud-based applications, which require you to send your data to someone else.

Which DRAM manufacturers are adding new fab capacity?

 

[JulianL]

Are there any memory industry insiders on this forum? Are any of the memory suppliers working on significantly expanding production capacity?

I realise that fabs take a significant amount of time and money to build so if yes (to my question above) it wouldn’t be a quick fix but I’m wondering if new fabs planned or under construction are now on a much bigger scale than would maybe have been planned a year or two ago in order to better match supply with this explosion in demand.

I’ve read many posts from people longing for the AI bubble to burst so that some sanity returns to the memory market but I’m wondering whether there might be an alternative light at the end of this tunnel - the supply-side adapting to this new world order.

Edit: Sorry, I missed previous posts asking the same question. I’m still very interested in any detailed answers though in terms of when sufficient extra capacity might come on line to ease the current situation.

 

[JPack]

Which DRAM manufacturers are adding new fab capacity?

All of them.

 

[JPack]

Are there any memory industry insiders on this forum? Are any of the memory suppliers working on significantly expanding production capacity?

I realise that fabs take a significant amount of time and money to build so if yes (to my question above) it wouldn’t be a quick fix but I’m wondering if new fabs planned or under construction are now on a much bigger scale than would maybe have been planned a year or two ago in order to better match supply with this explosion in demand.

I’ve read many posts from people longing for the AI bubble to burst so that some sanity returns to the memory market but I’m wondering whether there might be an alternative light at the end of this tunnel - the supply-side adapting to this new world order.

Edit: Sorry, I missed previous posts asking the same question. I’m still very interested in any detailed answers though in terms of when sufficient extra capacity might come on line to ease the current situation.

In short, no. Most DRAM companies have plans to expand modestly, but not aggressively. This is because they know history.

Uninformed posters who have never studied history are asking why Apple doesn't go in the DRAM business.

The short answer is, there's been 2 or 3 dozen DRAM companies over the past 40 years. We're basically down to 4 today. Everyone from Europeans to Japanese to Taiwanese have played in the game. Forgotten DRAM players like Hitachi, NEC, Mitsubishi, Motorola, Acer, Intel, Siemens, etc. It's a dog eat dog business with regular boom and bust cycles.

 

[Azeroth1]

They have said supplies will be limited at every iPhone launch since the iPhone was launched.

 

[johnsawyercjs]

The RAM supply needed for products intended for AI data centers seems to be of the HBM variants, not the standard DRAM variants used in consumer products, meaning RAM manufacturers are moving a goodly portion of their production to HBM and not producing the much needed DRAM...

Maybe we will see Apple switching over to variants of HBM in future products...?

One of the rumors in recent weeks has been that Apple is working with a RAM manufacturer to develop Mobile HBM for use in at least one future iPhone model, maybe the 20th Anniversary iPhone. I thought at first that this might mean the same would be true for Apple's other higher-end products that contain a processor suitable for HBM, particularly for Apple products that are powered by AC (plugging them into a wall outlet) since HBM's power demands are high, but looking into it further, it seems that's not Apple's plan at the moment, since the current architecture of high-end Mac minis and Pros, with their Max and Ultra chips, already provides pretty high memory bandwidth using more consumer-grade RAM, but since HBM has bandwidth still greater than these (hence its name), maybe at some point Apple will start using HBM in some of those models too, making them even more suitable as local AI machines.

 

[Abydos]

They have said supplies will be limited at every iPhone launch since the iPhone was launched.

good observation: I never noticed that, looking back at my records, I seem to buy phones in the may to July time frame.

 

[MysticTalisman]

All of them.

View attachment 2651749

Samsung is 2 to 3 years away. That is not going to help at all.

What is the level of expansion? 10%, 20%, 50%?

The reference material I have seen is that all 3 DRAM manufacturers are expanding HBM production and have significantly reduced commodity DDR5 manufacturing, of the order 30%.

So I don't believe the table that you showed is relevant to Apple's hardware needs.

 

[DBZmusicboy01]

At this right we might as well keep the iPhone 18 Pro Max & Ultra for like 10 years so maybe the whole SCAM ALT• fiasco maybe pops by then? I’m extremely sick and tired of this memory shortage insanity that has also spread to Gaming as well and many other things 😳

 

[joshwithachance]

SO GLAD I upgraded last year and have no interest in this year's rumored devices.🙌🏼

 

[DBZmusicboy01]

They have said supplies will be limited at every iPhone launch since the iPhone was launched.

Yes because of difficulties producing the iPhones reliably and other things but the 18 series is a whole different show. They have the phone ready EXCEPT the RAM 😳 they could have produced a billion iPhones and RAM is the only thing right now holding it back.

 

[mwhite]

I CANNOT WAIT for this ******** AI Bubble to bust and burst HARD. I'm so bloody sick of freaking AI. I'm constantly seeing ads on the train for AI this and AI that. It's just nauseating already. Go away.

 

[mwhite]

What will eventually happen is this: The End of Personal Computing: The "shortages" are all pointing to the day when the only new option will be what we used to call a "dumb-terminal". You're "computer" is simply going to point to an AI data center to do the computing function and you will have to be on some sort of subscription model (and perhaps a favorable social credit score) to get anything done aside from email and text. Write it down.

You will own nothing. This is what Silicrap Valley has wrought. You will own nothing, and pay to rent everything for the rest of your life. You will be a digital serf, while the tech Oligarch masters will live in their silicon castles.

 

[seek3r]

This is what happens when there is a monopoly and you depends on few companies to produce what you need for your product. Apple should have invest in USA and build a manufacturing company to build memroy for their products.

Even for Apple building a new fab from scratch is obscenely expensive and would probably take a decade to ramp up to full production

 

[scrapesleon]

they gonna have to bump the price on each product an additional 100 to meet profit margin