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sfh

macrumors regular
May 27, 2008
240
0
Sacramento CA
seriously does everyone think that they should just keep making them even if there are less buyers for them ... it's a slow down that would be expected after any major release of any product. make enough for the initial rush then scale back to maintain sales without inflating your inventory. no big deal
 

samab

macrumors 6502a
Mar 27, 2006
863
0
Generally when there is a shortcut of any sort, the reports come from China, supported by proof or trusty leak from one of the factories.
Apart from the fact that Apple iPhone chips are in most cases custom made. Motorola, LG, Nokia and the others do not share more than 35% of the chips used on the iPhone.
So that dude is speculating in other stuff that came straight from his imagination.

You don't need to know every single customized chips inside the iphone.

You just need to know whether or not Infineon is cutting production or not on their highend mobile chipset. That is the first signal. The rumors on China or Taiwan factory slowing down comes much later.
 

137489

Guest
Nov 6, 2007
840
0
This is the first news I've heard that the economy is effecting Apple. Perhaps now they will consider a low(er) end MacBook or revamping the Mac Mini. Any thoughts?

you would have thought they would have done that in October with all the speculation of price drops.

Personally, I stopped holding my breath on price drops and a dock that would support my current early 2008 macbook. I am building my own.

Since most docs I have seen (for Apple) are just port replicators..... mine is nothing eloquent, most my stuff runs off of USB and it will get the job done...

1. bought a 7 port powered USB hub and plugged all my "fixture" devices into that (timemachine backup drive, external lightscribe DVD burner, printer, wacom bamboo, cool pad [which also has a 4 port hub on it; incase I need more)], will be buying a wired apple keyboard.

2. I have a 15-inch KDS monitor that is 5 years old (VGA). Will get the job done for now, but after moving the mini to the bedroom and connecting it to an LCD HD TV - that monitor will need to be upgraded; looking at a 19 or 20 inch non-apple widescreen (possibly HD) due to price [Apple ACD's are just way to expensive for what they offer]. I was surprised of the quality and well, had I not see the mini on the HD TV, I would probably not even consider the monitor upgrade. :D

So basically, I plug 1 USB, magsafe, mini DVi, speakers and LAN (just to have more speed over wireless - but not necessary) and bam... Like I said, nothing eloquent but gets the job done for me. and for about $300-$400 it is less than basically the same thing I would've gotten with an Apple LCD with only 2 UBS ports and still would have had to buy a hub.

Once I figure out how to get Front row to recognize external drives for my movies and videos, I may loook at a 1 TB drive just for entertainment :cool:
 

Bosunsfate

macrumors 6502
Jan 20, 2006
344
0
Silicon Valley, CA
Its the size that matters

I was concerned at the size of the predicted drop.

I certainly would expect that some production would be slowed. The iPhone isn't a Christmas present afterall.

If 40% is right then things are going to be very interesting these next few quarters. I hope that Apple does not create a situation where they end up not having enough iPhones. That would not be good.
 

dernhelm

macrumors 68000
May 20, 2002
1,649
137
middle earth
I wonder if we'll be seeing a 32Gb iPhone around January to push us through until a 3rd Gen iPhone in Summer 09. It should be interesting to see where they go from here on out. The iPhone is rolling out in lots of different countries, they are bound to be lining up something to sustain interest/sales.

3G iPhone at $99
3G iPhone with added software/service value
Storage bump
New iPhone with iSight camera
New iPhone with better stills camera
iPhone Nano

We shall see...

So we shall. Here's how I see it though, Apple will stick somewhere around 5% of the mobile market until they release an iPhone for under $100, free or near free with subsidies. They won't do that while AT&T is the sole provider, and they may never do it.

But if they did, then they could possibly look to push into double digit market shares.
 

PBG4 Dude

macrumors 601
Jul 6, 2007
4,267
4,479
I was concerned at the size of the predicted drop.

I certainly would expect that some production would be slowed. The iPhone isn't a Christmas present afterall.

Funny you say this. I wanted to buy one for my wife for Christmas, but Apple won't let me. I have to sign up for the plan and everything, which I can't do / do as a surprise since it's her telephone account. Certainly I'm not the only person who wanted to buy this as a legitimate Christmas present?
 

gifford

macrumors 6502
Jun 11, 2007
422
0
Miserable England
Funny you say this. I wanted to buy one for my wife for Christmas, but Apple won't let me. I have to sign up for the plan and everything, which I can't do / do as a surprise since it's her telephone account. Certainly I'm not the only person who wanted to buy this as a legitimate Christmas present?

No your not the only one. I have also had this problem.
 

firewood

macrumors G3
Jul 29, 2003
8,107
1,345
Silicon Valley
Could be that Apple stopped or slowed down due to using other or their own made chips?

It takes way longer to get chips designed, verified, fabbed, and qualified for high volume production. For a new chip architecture, 18 months to 2 years is a common timeframe in the industry. Even longer for large complicated bleeding edge chips.

.
 

OrangeCuse44

macrumors 65832
Oct 25, 2006
1,504
2
This sounds like a model revamp or new release to me. What to do come Thursday? I was planning on purchasing my first iPhone...
 

SandynJosh

macrumors 68000
Oct 26, 2006
1,652
3
I have it straight from the girl at the iPhone factory that production is so high right now she doesn't have time to pose for more pictures. Darn!
 

jbernie

macrumors 6502a
Nov 25, 2005
927
12
Denver, CO
Given how things aren't so rosey on the economy side of things, Apple might want to be prudent and not over do the production now, so they have a small buffer in the supply chain, which if managed correctly won't become a massive artery clogging build up should things continue to do poorly on the retail side of things.

Apple's last quarter included the 3G release and there was definately pent up demand and much better economic conditions at release for the product but now that the initial rush has passed and we are probably more closer to normal demand being a little short in supply is more desirable than being over stocked and not being able to bring updates out, ie dropping the 8GB and introducing a 32GB (as an example)
 

Small White Car

macrumors G4
Aug 29, 2006
10,966
1,463
Washington DC
well it makes sense, most people would get this device when it came out. its not like you'd need constant production when its on a 18-24 month contract.

Exactly. Apple went into dozens of countries this year that were all waiting to get their hands on an iPhone.

They sold a LOT of them very quickly to people who wanted one in 2007 but were forcred to wait until 2008.

Now sales will drop to "normal" levels in those countries, which means less production.

But this is not a "slow down" of the iPhone. It was just a weird bonus where the first few months were abnormally high. Sales will be just fine now, they just won't be abnormal anymore.

Funny how this obvious idea is too hard for the analysts to figure out. No no...Apple must be in trouble! That's it!
 

IrishMac

macrumors member
Sep 19, 2006
36
0
There's been rumors in the UK that O2 and the Carphone Warehouse are planning price drops and tariff changes in order to keep sales going in the run up to christmas. Plus with Android and the BlackBerry Storm arriving, they need to do something to keep potential customers interested. This was supposed to happen on saturday the 1st but nothing came of it.

But if there is any price drop coming surely Apple wouldn't drop production, as any drop wouldn't likely spur sales. Maybe the downturn really is starting to bite.
 

wadenq

macrumors newbie
Nov 3, 2008
1
0
Wow

Are we all really that ignorant to not realize that Apple likes to do all they can within the company. The only fact we know is that the "chip industry" for iphones has slowed. That does not mean that Apple quit making iphones. It could simply mean that they are now in the process of making their own chips within the company.
 

longofest

Editor emeritus
Jul 10, 2003
2,924
1,682
Falls Church, VA
Please Refrain From Political Posts

While it is understandable that this thread can naturally have ties to the current political landscape, we ask that discussion remain focused on Apple, the story, and the impact of the economic downturn on Apple.

In this light, political posts in this thread have and will continue to be deleted by the moderation team to keep the conversation on topic. The Politics, Religion, and Social Issues forum is the proper venue to express political views on the current economic situation.

Thanks in advance.
 

Beric

macrumors 68020
Jan 22, 2008
2,148
0
Bay Area
This is the first news I've heard that the economy is effecting Apple. Perhaps now they will consider a low(er) end MacBook or revamping the Mac Mini. Any thoughts?

QFT. OR maybe products that aren't almost 2x the cost of identical PC hardware?
 

MattInOz

macrumors 68030
Jan 19, 2006
2,760
0
Sydney
This guy covers chipset makers --- if chipset makers make fewer chips, then you are going to see fewer phones.

Fewer Phones doesn't mean fewer iPhones.

Apple could keep buying at the same level and others drop by 80%.
Apple could build there own at least in some chip areas and that could account for the drop along with general economic trends.
 

pyroDcsk8er

macrumors newbie
Jun 16, 2008
5
0
My best bet is that they have seen a slight dip in sales, and know that there's only so many more people that are going to buy an iPhone that want one.

That or they are going to be starting a new revision of the phone [possibly bigger sizes] in January...
 

TheOrigGutter

macrumors newbie
Nov 3, 2008
1
0
Wow, so you all know that Apple actually builds machines with certain life spans, what I mean is that they make a run of a product. Also keep into account that Mac World is approaching soon which means that if you account for the fact that a new iPhone 3.0 will be out in 2009 they are hedging that a certain amount of product is left in the pipeline or needed in the pipeline before the new version will be released. My bet here is that they are assuming that there is a MASS amount of people who will buy the iPhone and then wait for the next revision. Also keep into account the people who are in contract with the iPhone 1.0 which will need new iPhone 3.0 in the next year. Also the next gen iPhone will surely need a new chipset so they are most certainly working on the next chipset with those people. This all makes perfect sense and anyone listening to this and reacting in regard to stock well they are not understanding the full story or business behind the changes.
 

mdriftmeyer

macrumors 68040
Feb 2, 2004
3,809
1,985
Pacific Northwest
Not exactly, this guy is a silicon chip analyst --- he covers Intel, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, Infineon...

If the chipset makers are making fewer chips, then we are going to see fewer phones.

Apple intentionally projected it's worst case, nominal case and best case volume sales; and in this case they've manufactured far more than conservative estimates.

In short, they have planned ahead.
 

sjo

macrumors 6502a
Aug 30, 2005
510
0
So we shall. Here's how I see it though, Apple will stick somewhere around 5% of the mobile market until they release an iPhone for under $100, free or near free with subsidies. They won't do that while AT&T is the sole provider, and they may never do it.

But if they did, then they could possibly look to push into double digit market shares.

iphone is already sold free and because apple doesn't decide the price carriers charge (the carriers do), they really can't "release" an iphone for under any price point.
 
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