Why do you think either of these would leave the App store?
Again, that all really depends on the actual value Apple's App store provides to developers and/or end users.
IMHO major apps from household name companies/devs can and probably will pull out of the Apple iOS store because in all honesty they can. Examples: Microsoft Office 365, in a world with alt-stores you know exactly where it will be, microsoft.com. Netflix, same. Amazon, same. Now, as you pointed out the subscriptions for these apps are currently run outside of Apple, I don't like this but there is nothing I can do about it. I would much rather a world where I get everything through Apple and don't need to provide all of my personal and payment information to every single app I use like the PC or MacOS worlds. Do you need to give your CC information to Coca-Cola when you buy a bottle from a supermarket?
Why is it so hard for some to understand how giving a single entity (Apple) my payment info versus countless individual sites and payment processors is a huge consumer advantage?
Other reasons big names will probably leave the Apple app store:
- No more privacy labels, devs don't want data privacy, they want to harvest all they can and sell it.
- Exclusivity bonuses.
- Apple would likely institute a distribution charge for anything downloaded from their store and fair charge or not most big names won't want to pay it and will want the traffic to come from their site and not Apple's. Imagine you are Microsoft, do you want users downloading Office365 from Apple and seeing competitors or do you want them seeing only Microsoft products on the Microsoft site? Seeing competing products is not something any manufacturer/dev wants.
Indie and small devs will likely remain on the Apple app store as it gives them way more eyeballs than they could possibly generate on their own and handles payments, etc. 30% is a no brainer for that kind of exposure and infrastructure.
From a purely retail perspective.... Apple is no different than any other retailer, digital or brick and mortar, if something is purchased from their site they deserve a cut, even if it is just a "player" app like Netflix or Spotify. Unfortunately our world is one where the majority of "apps" are free with IAP. Imagine the loose analogy where you would enter a supermarket, take a gallon of milk off the shelf and go home without paying because you can go to the milk manufacturers web site and purchase and unlock code for the cap, loose analogy but relevant. Right this minute Microsoft is selling a 1 year subscription to 365 on Amazon for $58.99 do you really think that Amazon is not getting a cut of that sale? Amazon does not sell anything for free.
As a consumer I appreciate the following from the Apple store:
- Single point for app searching - Why do I want to "google" or web search for apps? You only get results that pay to play for their position. That is literally the Google business model for searches. With the Apple store if I search on "word search" I get a single choice that is labeled as an "ad" and then all of the other choices. Admittedly I do not know how Apple chooses to order apps by default this seems a much cleaner way to search than any web search engine as it is specialized for apps.
- Single point for payment - Again, say you have 100 apps, would you rather give your CC info to only Apple or to 100 different entities that use god knows who as their payment processor? Would it not be prudent to limit your exposure in this day and age?
- Single point for updates - Right now I see a little red circle with a number in it when an apps have an update and I can do all my updates from one place, super convenient! Why do I want to visit 100 different sites to do updates or do 100 different update actions in my individual apps? Lame experience.
- Privacy - Apple forces devs to declare what they are collecting, I do not see that service being provided by alt-stores, I see a return to 100 page EULAs with text few can understand as the only way to determine what apps are doing.
As a consumer I dislike the following from the Apple store:
- Moral gatekeeping - Just stop already, if I want a weed app for my Pax vaporizer I should be able to get one. If I want teh pronz I should be able to get that too. That being said I knew this was the price of admission when I bought into the Apple ecosystem and while it bothers me it was not enough to make me choose another option.