As a person who does a lot of business travel with a PDA, cellphone and laptop (and sometimes with my wife's iPod mini & digital camera too), I've been watching the convergence trends.
FYI, you'll note that I don't have a "black" or "blue" blackberry ... I need to be another step up the higherarchy chain before I'd be "allowed" to have one, and in some ways, I'm just as happy that I don't! In any event, its merely just one more piece of the puzzle in the convergence conglomeration.
Here's the terrain the way I see it:
PDA:
- "in your pocket" (fast/easy access) to phone numbers when you're away from your desk. However, this need is better addressed by putting them into your cellphone (easier dialing).
- "in your pocket" access to your business calendar, and similarly intimate "nag" alarms to remind you that you're supposed to be somewhere else.
- Palm OS has excellent interfacing to MS-Outlook via "Conduits": allows for one common calendar, phonebook, notes file, To-Do list that gets synchronized.
- reasonably good battery life, although its mostly because the device is used in standby mode ~95% of the time. If used constantly, goes dead fast.
Blackberry:
- wireless email on the road is its claim to fame. Battery life pretty good. PDA functionality generally not considered as good as Palm OS (I'm unsure if it has "Conduits" into MS-Outlook that are as good as they are on the Palm).
- "Blue" variant has integrated cellphone capability. Reduces its battery life, but a pretty good convergence.
- but it doesn't automatically (wirelessly) transfer your email right into your laptop while on the road.
Cellphone:
- similar "in your pocket" convenience to being able to contact other people.
- reasonably good battery life, partly again because you don't really spend too many hours on the phone (vs. standby).
- An excellent choice for convergence with PDA functions
MP3 player:
- yet another pocket device, but generally sucks too much power in comparison to the above. As such, not as suitable for convergence within the above.
- integrating MP3 into a cellphone and/or PDA is probably a darn good way to kill its battery faster than you would otherwise want those two devices to last.
Digital Camera:
- YA pocket device. Has already converged with cellphones (varying quality), so there's some potential there. Power needs reasonable if picture taking is kept limited. However, many businesses currently prohibit cellphones with cameras from being brought into their conference rooms, etc, because they're a security risk (corporate espionage, etc). As such, there will be a business need for cellphone/PDA's that specifically do not have this feature converged. Also, because of varying consumer needs, expect that there will be "camera first" and "phone first" specialization for many years to come.
Laptop:
- pretty much can do all of the above, although the cellphone integration and/or blackberry wireless isn't at all commonly found (probably for good reason).
- has had a long history of the "not good enough for desktop too", although this is generally no longer true.
- has had long history of poor battery life which limits utility...although some current products can hit ~6 hours
- weight trade-offs for battery life, above.
- not "instant on" or "in-pocket" like nearly all of the above
- users frequently like to have a 15" screen...until they're flying in Coach and the guy in front of you reclines.
- not cheap. Also, probably the most fragile of these items.
Implications: if you look at the above holistically, it should be evident that the laptop does "all" (mostly) of the desired tasks, but it simply isn't as convenient...the "in the pocket" and instant-on. Similarly, the cellphone/wireless email is the other key need, and its also the one that you want to have 24+ hour battery life for...the rest tend to be power-hungry, which will only be improved by battery technology.
As such, what I see as the road ahead is a three device system, that interconnect via bluetooth or a similar very localize LAN:
#1: wireless earpiece. For phone calls and MP3-listening
#2: "pocket" device. Houses the cellphone/blackberry/PDA functions and relays the data to the other two.
#3: "laptop" type device. Its power consumption needs to be low enough that its able to remain in standby all day long. It receives the email (and voicemail messages) from #2, plus its your MP3 transmitter sending to #1 (in this standby mode, using the laptop's RAM as a buffer for MP3 data from its hard drive will conserve power, etc).
This type of configuration is very doable today, but the IMO big technology breakthrough will be to do away with the current LCD screen...alternatives include holographic projection, which means that the guy reclining in the seat in front of you doesn't create a problem.
A more near-term technology solution would be a new LCD screen hinge design that cantilevers the screen forward, so that instead of your screen being "behind" the keyboard, its kind of more "over" it...
-hh
